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Overall, I think that this is a heads I win, tails win even more type of situation and thus if the offer gets dismissed, ArcLight most likely will raise the price. If they don’t then it will still show that the management is valuing the company higher. Also it seems that some of the problems that trouble AMID can be taken care of in the short term, which would again have a positive effect on the share price.
Transaction has already been approved by shareholders and has traded at a narrow (2-3%) spread until recently. Last week CFIUS (the only remaining approval) has extended the investigation period and caused the spread to widen to 14%. CFIUS approval is very likely (deadline set for the 25th) and acquisition should close shortly afterwards.
It’s difficult to see significant downside in OMED stock from current levels. OMED is currently trading at an implied EV of negative $33M based on est. 12/31 cash and about 20% above all-time lows reached before the combination was announced. Furthermore, the merger notes in the proxy suggest that OMED had received 6 non-binding indications of interest while it was reviewing strategic alternatives, so there could be an alternative path forward should the Mereo transaction break.
Due to drop in oil prices as well as annual step up in chargeable costs Q1 distributions will be cut from the latest $1/share quarterly to almost zero. I am expecting this to have a negative effect on the share price. The residual value/optionality beyond Q1 does not justify current share price either as chargeable costs will continue to rise annually and WTI needs to be above $55 for BPT to start generating any income in 2020.
TheStreet has recently sold B2B business to Euromoney and currently is a net-net with c. $110m-$115m or $2.2/share cash on hand. Company promised to distributed substantial portion of this cash to shareholders. So my trade here is to acquire TST below cash balance and wait for the distribution announcement. I would expect either special dividend of >$1/share or tender offer for half of the outstanding shares above cash value ($2.2+/share). Any of these will likely lift the share price upwards - if not before then after the substantial distribution.
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