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We focus on special situation investment and risk arbitrage ideas with short term catalysts. All investment opportunities are tied to some specific corporate action or event and are expected to generate returns in the near future with lower risk. Unbiased and high quality research is provided for each case.

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NEW FEATURE – MEMBER IDEAS

First a short foreword. Quite a few of you have shared investment ideas with me, but only a part of them ended up on the site. This was either do to lack of time to investigate them thoroughly or due to my belief that upside was not worth the risk. So usually if I did not take the position, I did not share that idea with the rest of community. Which is a pity, because some of these ideas actually

 

2017 Year in Review – Quick STATS

It was a very interesting year for Special Situation Investments. In total there have been 38 investment ideas posted during the year and members added a further 12 in the new ‘Member Idea’ section. By luck or skill the performance has been great – only two trades ended in losses and the rest averaged 15% returns. Scope continued to widen and only 10 out of 38 investment opportunities were odd-lots.

     

Tejoori (TJI.LON) – Liquidation – 66% upside

Current Price – $0.384

Expected NAV – $0.63

Upside – 60%

Expiration Date – TBD (expected in H1 2017)

This is a microcap opportunity in London AIM Market. Tejoori has sold all of its assets and currently stands as a cash shell.  Management announced intention to distribute part of the proceeds to shareholders. Currently TJI trades at 40% discount to cash on hand and this gap is expected to close once the distribution is announced.



Tanker Investments (TIL:OMXNO) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% upside

Current Price – NOK 43.2

Expected Payout – NOK 45.65

Upside – 6%

Expiration Date – Q3 2017

Teekay Tankers (TNK) entered into definitive agreement to buy Tanker Investments (TIL). Each TIL share would be exchanged to 3.3 TNK shares – representing 6% spread at current prices and NOK/USD exchange rate. Merger has been approved by the boards of both companies as well as Special Committee of TIL independent directors. Shareholder approvals on both sides are still pending. Merger is expected to close



MVC Capital (MVC) – Expected Tender Offer – 5%+ upside

Current Price – $10.51

Expected Payout – TBD

Upside – TBD (likely around 5%+)

Expiration Date – TBD

The BoD of MVC Capital approved tender offer to repurchase $25m of stock (approximately 11% of outstanding). Tender is expected to commence in November and the repurchase price has not been set yet. On top of that on the 31st of October shareholders will vote whether to adopt activist proposal to increase the return of cash to shareholders. If approved this will likely give a further boost to the



ZAIS Group (ZAIS) – Going Private – 23% upside

Current Price – $3.25

Acquisition Price – $4.00

Upside – 23%

Expiration Date – TBD

This is a microcap arbitrage opportunity  that was suggested by one of the members (thank you Ivan). CEO is willing to take this failed SPAC private at 23% premium to current share price.



Greenhill & Co (GHL) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – 1.5% upside (12% realized)

Current Price – $17.02

Offer Price – $17.25

Upside – 1.5% or $25 for odd lot holders

Expiration Date – 25th of October, 2017

GHL has launched tender for 40% of the outstanding stock. This is an opportunity to participate in the tender  that is very likely to be under-subscribed and price might shot up if that turns out to be the case. More risk averse investors can pocket $25 risk free.