Monthly Archives: May 2017



Rite Aid (RAD) – Merger Arbitrage – 77% upside

Current Price –$3.67

Expected Price - $6.5

Upside – 77%

Expiration Date - Dec 2017

This is my second look at the pending WBA/RAD merger – I was spectacularly wrong the first time and the only consolation is that market was wrong as well – the spread narrowed to 3% before the deal started collapsing. The merger agreement has been adjusted – instead of $9/share WBA is planning to acquire RAD at $6.5-$7/share (77% upside) and higher number of stores will be divested



China Digital TV (STVVY) – Ex-dividend day – 70% potential return

Current Price –$1.4

Expected Price - $0.35 (if today is the ex-dividend day)

Upside – 70%

Expiration Date - May 26th, 2017

This is a quick message, as this is a timely situation and I did not have time to do a full write-up. Shares at current prices are either a good short (if today is ex-dividend) or a good long (if today is not ex-dividend), so if anyone manages to figure out which way it is, you stand to make a ton of



Wingstop (WING) – Irrational Algo Trading – 10% upside

Current Price – $32.99

Expected Price - <$30

Upside – 10%+

Expiration Date - Two weeks

This is a slightly different Special Situation opportunity. Yesterday WING stock jumped +13.8% in after-hours trading following the release of Q1 earnings. I believe this trading was mainly caused by algorithmic robot trading or completely superficial retail investors who misread the headline numbers for huge improvement in operational performance. In reality Q1 earnings showed hardly any positives.I expect the share price to revert at least to pre Q1 release levels ($29)



CIT Group (CIT) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – Minimal upside currently

Current Price –$46.86

Offer Price - $43 – $48

Upside – 2.5% (if priced at the upper limit)

Expiration Date - 24th of May, 2017

This is a tender offer with shares currently trading in the middle of the buyback range. Tender offer has high likelihood of being priced at the upper limit and proration is expected to be low. There is no proration for odd-lot holders.