Huge thanks to all the members who have shared their special situation ideas. Looking forward to hearing more interesting trades from you. And now it is time to determine the best member idea for March.
Please select one the ideas listed below and cast for vote. The winner(s) will be awarded $1,000. All ideas are listed in the order they have been submitted. Below I am also sharing quick overview of each.
Only members will determine the winner(s). Selection cannot be changed after submission. One vote per member. Poll will close on Saturday (7th of April).
Expectation of tender offer to buyback 5%-7% of outstanding stock. Tender has not been launched yet and pricing is still unclear.
This opportunity appeared because of temporary concerns regarding completion of LIX acquisition (financing issues) even though LIX management ensured acquisition is still on track to be completed in two days. Just one day later these concerns have been lifted and the spread narrowed significantly.
Low risk merger arbitrage with Blackstone. Merger is progressing as expected and spread has been almost fully closed by now.
This was a bet on share price rebound after the notice of upcoming delisting was issued, likely forcing some of the shareholders to liquidate their positions. Delisting took place 3 week ago but so far the price has failed to return to pre-announcement levels. Stock is illiquid and volatile.
Expectation of favorable pricing in the tender offer to buy back 10% of outstanding shares. PSH trades at historically wide discount relative to NAV and tender offer is likely to be priced at narrower discount (in line with recently made offer). Tender details will be announced after shareholder meeting (scheduled for 24th of April).
Junior diamond explorer merger arbitrage (all stock) with 7% spread. Shareholder votes of both companies are set for 9th of April. ISS and Glass Lewis issued recommendations that shareholders vote for the merger.
Merger arbitrage (stock, cash and CVR) situation that resulted in free CVR. Merger has been closed but the value of CVR remains unclear and will be determined internally based on EBITDA impact from the new betting terminal regulation in UK. The regulatory ruling turned out to be more favorable than was rumored. The indicated loss is from the decline in acquirer's (GVC.L) share price - 0% loss if position was hedged.
Merger Arbitrage situation involving Oaktree in Australia where the biggest risk was shareholder approval. Couple activists have been pushing for a better price and eventually got 5% bump in the offer price. Spread has been almost eliminated and transaction will close on the 9th of April.