Great Canadian Gaming (GC.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$360 Upside

Current Price: C$30.24

Offer Price: C$39 - C$46

Upside: C$360-C$950 (odd lots)

Expiration Date: 25th of March 2020

Amendment of the substantial issuer bid

The idea was shared by Ali.

 

Another dutch tender offer with odd lot (<99 shares) provision.

On the 10th of February Canadian casino operator Great Canadian Gaming has announced a substantial issuer bid (dutch tender offer) for 19%-22% of its outstanding shares at C$39-C$46/share. Withholding taxes (15%-25%) will be applied to non-Canadian investors. One of the conditions was that the offer might be cancelled/amended if S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial index falls 10% below the value at the 7th of Feb.

So with the recent market downfall Great Canadian has announced (11th of March) an amendment to the offer on the - total value of the offer has been cut from C$500m to C$350m, however the price has remained unchanged. The cancellation/amendment condition (10% fall of the indexes) remains, but the reference date was amended to the 10th of March.

Currently the upside for odd lot holders (with 15% withholding taxes) stands at C$360-C$950, however now that Dow Jones has already fallen 11% and S&P 500 - 10% since the 10th of March, the risk of further amendment is high. Worth noting that today another similar offer (MGM Resorts) was eventually cancelled after being amended two times before that.

So either the whole market recovers somewhat till the expiration date (25th of March), or the pricing will likely get cut.

 

3 COMMENTS

  1. Zulu Investor

    Would 15% withholding taxes mean that net proceeds from this tender really be $33.15 to $39.1 per share? This is assuming the whole tender is counted as a taxable stub.

    1. Ilja

      Withholding taxes are calculated from the difference of the price and paid up capital. Paid up capital currently is C$4.74/share. So withholding taxes from the lower limit pricing would be (C$39 – C$4.74) *15% = C$5.139‬/share.

      Net proceeds are C$33.86‬ – C$39.81/share. Current upside for odd lots stands at C$479-C$1068. That is with 15% withholding taxes.

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