Current Price: $191
Net Asset Value: $246
Expiration Date: Late Q2 2020
This idea was shared by Knight142.
This is a stub trade, based on thesis that Match Group (MTCH) split-off will close the valuation gap between IAC NAV and its share price. MTCH makes up 75% of IAC assets. Closing is expected in Q2 and management confirmed on the 6th of April that the transaction is still on track significantly de-risking the whole situation. However, the spread narrowed only slightly.
There are a number of ways to look at this trade.
After the split-off intentions were initially communicated (Aug-19), IAC traded at 4%-6% discount to its two listed subsidiaries (and an even larger discount to total NAV). However, due to the recent market panic the spread has widened. It is likely that as the split-off date approaches the discount will get eliminated completely, so short term upside is 10%.
The second way is to aim a bit higher expecting that the market will finally start recognizing the value of other assets on IAC balance sheet. Approach of MTCH split-off date should act as a catalyst for that as well. Total sum-of-the-parts value of IAC stands at $246/share (30% upside).
Finally, at current IAC prices, the new IAC stub (post split-off) appears to be trading at ridiculous discount to its remaining assets - 30 cents on a dollar (more details below). Divestment of another publicly listed asset - ANGI shares - was also in the cards back in Aug'19 and if the discount does not close, management will likely proceed with further divestments.
This trade can be done without hedging, however then the investor would be left exposed to the MTCH/ANGI post/pre split-off prices. Hedged play involves going long 1 IAC and short 2.74 MTCH + 4.95 ANGI. MTCH borrow fee is 17% annually, so if the rate remains unchanged, hedging will consume 4% of the upside. ANGI borrow is cheap and plentiful.
The main risk is that the transaction gets delayed, cancelled or the terms get amended. However, recent assurance from the company suggests this is very unlikely. The strategic rationale for the split-off is strong as the transaction will allow IAC to refocus on incubating its smaller assets, while MTCH will benefit from inclusion in indices under its post-spin single class structure. The April 6th update also reassured that both companies are still committed to close the split-off on schedule.
Expensive borrow of MTCH is also a risk - any delays or increases in borrow fees could erode significant part of the upside.
Discount to listed subsidiaries
IAC largest assets are majority ownership in publicly listed MTCH and ANGI. On top these IAC also has further $4.5bn of net assets and cash (details in the next section). However, with IAC trading below to its two publicly listed subs (MTCH and ANGI), the implied value of IAC stub is negative $1.7bn.
Aug'19 announcement that IAC was considering splitting off its listed subs caused IAC stub discount to narrow. MTCH split-off off agreement was signed in Dec'19. And then over the last month due to overall market turbulence this valuation gap has widened again.
MTCH split-off should at the very least eliminate this negative IAC stub valuation (upside of 10%), and most likely force markets to recognize (and properly value) other assets on IAC balance sheet, bringing IAC share price closer to its NAV.
Tables below illustrates valuation misalignment relative to publicly listed subsidiaries:
And here historical perspective on the implied IAC stub value discount relative to publicly listed subs:
Discount to NAV
Table below outlines current IAC NAV calculation assuming all non-public assets get taxed at 27% - which is way too conservative, as some of these are valued at cost. But let's say these taxes also account for some corporate overheads on managing IAC stub over the coming years.
IAC post split-off
On the 6th of April management presented a very clear case for arbitrage. New IAC will be debt free and currently is trading at an implied valuation of only $2.2bn while having $1.9bn stake in ANGI, $2.3bn in cash and $3bn-$4bn in other unlisted investments (chart made using the 3rd of April prices). In other words one is paying 30 cents on a dollar.
This is a ridiculous valuation misalignment and it is unlikely to hold post split-off.
Note: 'New IAC' is slightly different from 'IAC stub' showed in previous tables - mainly because c. 15% of MTCH ownership will be forfeited in exchange for debt transfer from IAC to MTCH as well as additional cash inflow $3 per MTCH share. The same reason why number of MTCH shares to be received in split-off differs current IAC ownership.
In management's words:
"At IAC’s current stock price, our market capitalization is $14.5 billion – that’s about $30 million higher than the value of our 80% interest in MTCH leaving aside the rest of our businesses and cash. In the separation, we currently expect that an IAC shareholder would receive 2.37 shares of MTCH (worth $144 per IAC share at today’s prices); subtracting that amount from the current IAC stock price would imply that the “stub” is worth $25 per share. At this price, backing out our anticipated cash balance and the value of our ANGI stake at current prices, the remaining assets of New IAC would be trading at an implied negative $2 billion value. We expect that will work itself out over time."
Full details are outlined well in this presentation. The key point are:
- Match shareholders will receive 1 new MTCH + $3/share in cash (or equivalent in MTCH shares, subject to election). The cash consideration will be funded by Match.
- IAC shareholders will receive 1 new IAC + 2.37 MTCH + $3/share in cash + up to additional $162m ($1.86/share) if minority MTCH shareholders choose the stock option over $3/share in cash.
- IAC is spinning only ~85% of its stake in MTCH, while the remaining (29m shares) will be forfeited - deleted from the outstanding share balance of MTCH. In exchange for those 29m erased shares, Match will assume all of the remaining IAC debt (notes and warrants) + hedging instruments.
- Regulatory blessing for this type of the transaction should not be a problem, while the approval of MTCH and IAC shareholder shouldn't be a hurdle as well given the potential benefits of the transaction.
These terms might change slightly depending on the share prices of IAC and MTCH at the time of the transaction.
IAC is a conglomerate with a business model of acquiring and developing marketplace and media companies before spinning them off tax efficiently. Past spin-offs have all been tax free and include Ticketmaster, Lending Tree, Interval Leisure Group and Home Shopping Network.
Current assets of IAC include two listed companies - online dating network Match (Match.com, Tinder) and digital home services marketplace ANGI. IAC also owns stakes in multiple non-public firms like Vimeo (video platform), Dotdash (digital media), Care.com (social care services marketplace) and others.