It has been a very productive year so far. We have published 73 new investment ideas on SSI, and while many have already played out, 42 write-ups are still marked as active.
That is a big number, and I realize it might be overwhelming for newer subscribers who have joined recently.
So, in the spirit of year-end clarity, I have pulled together a focused list of the special sits I consider most actionable right now. This list narrows the field to 17 names. Each one stands out as a compelling near-term setup with solid downside protection and plenty of successful precedents.
If you are deciding where to direct your attention, this is the group to start with. It’s a long e-mail, but I hope I have structured it in an easy-to-read way.
Let’s dive in.
KNOT Offshore Partners (KNOP) — Familiar path to a higher bid
MLP buyouts with subsequent price bumps have been one of the most reliable and successful themes on SSI. Across eight cases covered in recent years, every single one resulted in a higher offer while maintaining solid downside protection.
The latest addition to this theme is KNOT Offshore Partners, which recently received a non-binding privatization proposal from its general partner at $10/unit.
The setup hits every page of the usual playbook. The bid comes with only an 11% premium to the pre-announcement price and arrives at a moment when KNOP’s dividend—and therefore its unit price—is temporarily suppressed. In short, the proposal appears opportunistic and lowballed.
Since every recent MLP take-private has resulted in a higher offer, it is reasonable to expect a similar outcome here. A special committee is now reviewing the bid. Because the general partner controls only 26% of the votes, the remaining unitholders must also sign off on any transaction, which markedly improves the odds of a price raise. Historical precedents suggest we can expect a higher bid within 2 to 4 months, and the downside to pre-announcement levels looks minimal.
Golden Entertainment (GDEN) — Takeunder at 1x EBITDA
This is an asymmetric setup with a high probability of a price bump.
The Chairman of Golden Entertainment is attempting to acquire the company’s operating business at a mere 1x EBITDA. For context, comparable companies trade in the 7-8x EBITDA range. Given how egregious this valuation is, and the fact that two activists are already pushing for better terms, there is a strong possibility the bid will be raised. Since management owns a third of the stock, the transaction effectively hinges on minority stockholder approval.
GDEN currently trades at the offer value, which provides a solid floor while we wait for the situation to unfold. Activists estimate that the total consideration could be increased by at least 30%. However, even a modest 15% bump seems very achievable, and crucially, would not require the buyer to expand their current financing agreement.
Bel Fuse (BELFA) — Share class arbitrage
Bel Fuse has two common share classes: Class A and Class B. Both carry identical economic rights. For most of the last decade, the two classes have traded roughly in line with each other. While the prices occasionally drift apart, history shows the gap always closes within 12 months. In fact, I successfully traded this arbitrage last year, banking a 21% profit in just three months when the spread collapsed.
Now, the opportunity has returned: the price gap has widened again. There is no fundamental reason for the two share classes to trade this far apart. The setup is simple: the current spread is unsustainable, and I expect the two classes to snap back into alignment.
Adding to the pressure, major shareholder Mario Gabelli is considering resubmitting a proposal to collapse the dual-class structure entirely. If he succeeds, the price gap will vanish immediately.
Renatus Tactical Acquisition (RTAC) — Highly asymmetric Trump-access trade
RTAC is arguably the best way to play the “Trump-access” deal ecosystem while keeping potential downside limited. This SPAC is run by the exact same team that took Trump Media (DJT) public in one of the defining spectacles of the last cycle, an announcement that sent the stock on a temporary 10x run. The overlap is undeniable: Trump Media’s Chairman now also chairs RTAC. Given the political and financial networks of the key players, there is a strong probability that this SPAC will land another headline-friendly target capable of drawing in a wave of speculative capital inflows.
If the pieces fall into place, RTAC could easily turn into a multibagger. However, if the deal fails to materialize, the structure offers a hard floor: with the trust value sitting at ~$10.20/share, your maximum loss is capped at roughly 5%.
Yext (YEXT) — CEO floats lowball offer and invites competing bids
Yext has received a non-binding privatization offer from its Chairman and CEO at $9/share. The tone of the announcement felt less like a neutral ‘we received a bid’ and more like a signal that ‘the company is for sale’. The Chairman has explicitly noted he is fully open to superior offers. In other words, Yext is now effectively in play, with a stalking horse bid already on the table.
The current setup offers an attractive asymmetry. On top of the roughly 6% spread to the Chairman’s offer, investors get a free option on a price bump or a competing bidder emerging. The initial proposal is notably low, coming in at only a 10% premium to pre-announcement levels. This fits the classic playbook for management-led buyouts: open with a lowball non-binding offer, allow the special committee to push back, and then raise the price to reach a definitive agreement.
The odds of a sweeter deal are high. The Board has already formed a special committee to evaluate the proposal and explore strategic alternatives. Meanwhile, the downside risk appears limited as the stock is trading near pre-announcement levels, supported by a recent earnings report that beat guidance.
Ambase Corporation (ABCP) — Litigation setup with 10x potential
ABCP is a real estate litigation play with genuine multibagger potential, albeit this legal saga has been dragging on for years. The company is suing its former partners, the developers of a super-tall luxury condominium on Manhattan’s famous “Billionaires’ Row.”
The case centers on Ambase’s contractual ‘Equity Put Right’. This clause gave the company the option to sell its stake back to the partners for $150m if the project’s budget increased by more than 10% between periods. Ambase alleges that the developers artificially inflated the 2015 baseline budget specifically to invalidate this right.
The evidence appears compelling. Depositions from former employees of the sponsor suggest that the budget numbers were indeed manipulated to avoid the payout. If the court enforces the Equity Put Right, ABCP shares could reprice from today’s $0.20 to roughly $2.00. Notably, the company’s CEO has been personally funding the litigation for years, a strong signal of his confidence in a successful verdict.
TrueCar (TRUE) — Merger arbitrage with 20% spread and high IRR
TRUE is a straightforward merger arbitrage setup with a wide spread and a short timeline. The company’s founder is leading a privatization effort to revive the struggling business with an all-cash offer of $2.55/share, implying roughly a 20% spread from the current levels.
The catalyst is imminent. The shareholder meeting is scheduled for December 22, and closing is expected either late this month or in early January. Approval appears highly likely; with the largest shareholder already on board, approximately 26% of shares are pledged to support the transaction.
While the majority of the funding is secured, the remaining portion is expected to be finalized shortly. Notably, a large event-driven fund with a strong track record in merger arbitrage recently initiated a position, a strong vote of confidence that the deal will cross the finish line.
Lensar (LNSR) — 35% spread with a CVR on top
LNSR currently offers one of the widest merger arbitrage spreads in the market. The company, a maker of cataract surgery systems, is being acquired by industry heavyweight Alcon. For Alcon, this is a highly strategic tuck-in, yet the deal size is small enough to be a mere rounding error. The terms are attractive: $14.00/share in cash plus a Contingent Value Right (CVR) worth up to an additional $2.75/share.
With LNSR trading around $10, the spread on the cash portion alone sits at roughly 37%.
Shareholder approval is effectively guaranteed. The only real hurdle is antitrust clearance, as both companies hold meaningful market share in the U.S. Consequently, the FTC’s Second Request review is currently ongoing.
Under the current administration, regulators have adopted a broadly more permissive stance on M&A, challenging very few deals. A notable recent precedent is SRDX, which was initially blocked but ultimately prevailed in court and closed. Given that the overlap here exists in a niche sector, and that Alcon has the capacity to divest assets if necessary, regulatory approval remains the most likely outcome.
Forian (FORA) — Expected higher offer with minimal downside
FORA is a classic controlling-shareholder buyout that gives investors a free option on a higher offer. The company has received a $2.10/share go-private proposal from a founder-led group that already controls 63% of the equity.
A special committee is currently reviewing the bid. While the stock trades slightly above the offer, the setup fits a familiar pattern: the proposal includes virtually no premium to pre-announcement levels, a standard opening tactic in the controlling-shareholder playbook that often leads to a negotiated price bump.
The risk/reward is highly asymmetric. If the special committee simply accepts the floor bid of $2.10, the loss from current levels is a mere 3%. If the buyers walk away entirely, the stock would likely drift back toward the $2.00 range, a level where it has found support for most of the last two years.
Meanwhile, the fundamental downside is cushioned by a strong balance sheet. Nearly half of Forian’s market cap sits in cash, and the underlying business is growing, generating positive cash flow, and positioned to capture value from broader AI-driven tailwinds.
Currency Exchange International (CURN) — Deep value play with several catalysts
CURN operates two distinct lines of business: it is one of the three major suppliers of foreign banknotes in the U.S., and it runs a high-margin, fast-growing currency exchange payments platform.
The valuation is strikingly cheap. The company trades at a $100 million market cap despite holding $84 million in net cash (primarily working capital) and generating $23 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Management has recently announced the shutdown of its money-losing Canadian operations, a move that should provide an immediate and meaningful boost to profitability. Additionally, a potential uplisting to the Nasdaq or NYSE remains on the table. If management executes well – closing the underperforming unit cleanly, securing the uplisting, and putting the improved profitability to work through stronger shareholder returns – the upside could be substantial.
FONAR (FONR) — Lowball offer and wide spread
FONR is an intriguing and seemingly mispriced merger arbitrage opportunity, offering a wide 21% spread with limited downside. The company has received a non-binding take-private proposal from the controlling Damadian family at $17.25/share. The Chairman has little incentive to keep the company public. A take-private would eliminate public reporting costs and allow the family to cheaply increase their economic ownership, capturing 100% of the future upside.
However, the current bid appears highly opportunistic. It values FONAR at just 5x EBITDA. Even more remarkably, the company’s cash balance covers roughly 60% of the entire market cap, providing a safety net for investors.
The stock is currently trading below pre-announcement levels, creating an attractive entry point. Special committee is reviewing the bid, and crucially, approval from non-affiliated shareholders will be required to close the deal. This creates a real possibility that the special committee or the minority holders themselves will force a price bump.
Finch Therapeutics Group (FNCH) — Litigation with multibagger potential
FNCH has already secured a major victory: a jury trial win against Ferring Pharmaceuticals resulting in a $30 million award (covering a one-time licensing fee and pre-trial interest). The value disconnect is stark: the confirmed cash award alone exceeds FNCH’s entire $22 million market cap.
However, the real catalyst is still ahead. The judge must now decide on “post-trial remedies,” which could materially expand the total payout. There are three key buckets of additional value on the table:
- Future Royalties: Estimated to be worth $10m–$20m to FNCH.
- Enhanced Damages: Could add $30m–$60m on top of the original win.
- Attorney Fees: Potential reimbursement that could exceed $20m.
A favorable ruling on any of these items would likely trigger a substantial share price spike. While the exact timeline is uncertain, FNCH has already been waiting for more than a year, suggesting the final decision is likely to arrive sooner rather than later.
Thunderbird Entertainment (TBRD:V) — Underfollowed merger arb
TBRD is being acquired by a close industry peer, and the spread currently stands at 16%. The consideration is a mix of C$1.77/share in cash and 0.2165 BAMI shares, with the cash component capped at 44% of the total payment. Deal certainty looks high: major shareholders owning 37% of the stock have already pledged support, making approval effectively guaranteed, and antitrust risk is low in such a fragmented industry (media programming). The buyer is funding the offer through cash on hand and existing credit facilities. On a quick read, everything points to a straightforward closing in Q1 2026.
The main reason for the spread seems to be BAMI’s extremely tight float, which results in limited borrow availability and makes hedging complicated. However, and this is key, I think this arbitrage setup can be played unhedged.
Many TBRD investors, particularly the largest long-term holders, are likely to opt for stock consideration rather than cash. This would materially increase the proportional cash payout for everyone else. In a realistic scenario, the cash portion for those who opt for it could rise to 70%–90%, rendering exposure to BAMI’s share price almost negligible.
Priority Technology (PRTH) — Cheap option on a higher bid
PRTH received a non-binding privatization offer from its Founder and Chairman, Thomas Priore, to acquire the outstanding shares for $6.00 to $6.15/share. This proposal appears blatantly lowball and reads more like an opening gambit than a final price. The founder already owns 58% of the company, and a special committee is currently reviewing the bid. The stock trades below $6.
The offer is visibly cheap and opportunistic. Multiple hints suggest the bid was designed to put the company in play and potentially draw out other buyers. At today’s prices, investors effectively receive a free option on a price bump or the emergence of a competing bidder.
Two activists have already pushed back, arguing that the proposal materially undervalues the business and exploits a temporary dislocation in the share price. One activist has pegged fair value as high as $17 per share. That may be overly optimistic, but even with much more conservative assumptions, the valuation still lands at around $10/share, or 65% above the current bid. There is a solid case for a significantly higher final offer.
WonderFi Technologies (WNDR:TO) — 31% spread with only one approval left
Robinhood is expanding its crypto services into Canada through the acquisition of WonderFi Technologies at C$0.36 per share. The spread to the offer price stands at 31%. WonderFi owns two of Canada’s largest crypto exchanges, BitBuy and Coinsquare.
The deal has already met almost all of the required conditions, including approvals from shareholders and antitrust regulators. The only remaining hurdle is the consent of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), which oversees investment dealers. While CIRO approval is somewhat of a wildcard as this marks the first acquisition of a Canadian crypto exchange by a foreign firm, Robinhood is a well-established player in the crypto space, suggesting no obvious reasons for a denial.
The review has no set timeline, but the buyout is expected to close in the first half of 2026.
Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ) — Merger arb with 17% spread approaching the finish line
Galaxy Gaming develops and sells casino table games and related gaming technologies. The company is being acquired by its larger peer Evolution AB for $3.2/share in cash (17% spread). Shareholder approval has already been secured.
Approval from Mississippi was granted in November, leaving only two pre-closing jurisdictions outstanding. While the process moves slowly due to the heavy bureaucracy involved, a successful outcome is expected. Both parties anticipate securing all remaining approvals by the first quarter of 2026, with closing set to follow shortly thereafter.
Dickson Concepts (0113:HK) — Expected take-private in near term
Dickson Concepts is a Hong Kong-based luxury retailer trading at a 30% discount to net cash (HK8.60/share). On top of that, it runs a consistently profitable operating business that’s clearly worth something.
The founder and chairman Dickson Poon, who owns 66% of the company, tried to take it private at HK$7.20/share earlier this year but was narrowly blocked by minority shareholders.
Although the deal fell through, the situation is likely far from resolved. Poon has effectively tested the waters and now knows exactly how much pushback to expect, having missed the approval threshold by only a slim margin. When the mandatory cooling-off period expires in July 2026, it is highly probable that he will return with a renewed attempt.
While the upside to the previous offer price has recently narrowed from 40% at the time of the write-up to roughly 20%, the setup remains compelling as any future bid would almost certainly need to be higher than the previous benchmark to secure the necessary support.