The market has largely ignored the recent developments, which makes the opportunity quite asymmetric.
Recent developments suggest that the company is about to be pushed into a strategic review and eventual sale. Just the announcement of the review is likely to push the shares higher and in a sale scenario, the upside is likely to be substantial (around 40%-50% by my count). If nothing materializes over the next few months, downside should be limited as it is fairly well-protected by fundamentals.
The largest shareholder/activist is buying shares in the open market. Q4 2025 results will be reported in March, but the underlying businesses are fairly stable and unlikely to deliver major surprises. A strategic review could be announced well before then, and serve as the first catalyst.
Management owns a decent amount of shares (worth $16m at current prices), so they’re not exactly disincentivized from pursuing a sale either.
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