40%-80% Potential Upside
This is an interesting situation with two potential event-driven angles, one short-term and one longer-term.
The short-term angle centers on a large tender likely to be announced within the next month at a premium to current prices. The company has just sold a large asset, and the press release included the same capital return language that appeared in the prior large asset sale announcement, which was shortly followed by a tender offer.
The longer-term angle centers on a full sale or wind-up of the company, which could generate 40%-80% upside. The company has already divested all non-core assets and half of its core portfolio. It is clearly sub-scale and burdened by disproportionate public company overhead. While no formal wind-up has been announced, the share count is down nearly 50% since 2021 and the pattern of asset sales points toward a strategic liquidation in progress. The activist has been pushing for further sales and repurchases, and management has shown a willingness to follow that roadmap.
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