Closing is expected this quarter.
This is a classic CVR setup, the kind you most often see in biopharma buyouts (even though this target is not a biopharma). The company is being acquired, and the consideration includes a CVR that you’re currently paying nothing for. The CVR is tied to a future revenue milestone. Reaching that milestone simply requires the company to keep going at its historical growth rate. Overall, the buyout is highly likely to close this quarter. You park your cash for roughly two months, recoup your investment plus the 1% spread at closing, and keep the CVR optionality for free.
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