SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
In this edition of the newsletter, I am sharing updates on investment pitches published on SSI. For more timely updates, you are always welcome to review the comments and join the discussions on the Special Situation Investments website.
In this newsletter, you will find:
- New posts: THL:AX
- Updates: OPTU, DCC, OML, 0113, BELFA, NVRI
NEW IDEAS ON SSI
One new merger arb setup was added to SSI this morning:
Tourism Holdings (THL:AX) — merger arbitrage with 23% spread
THL is the world’s largest recreational vehicle rental operator, running a fleet of 8.6k vehicles. It also manufactures its own vehicles in-house. THL has received a preliminary, non-binding offer from a consortium of BGH Capital and the Trouchet family at NZ$3.1/share (equivalent to A$2.55/share). The buyer group already owns 20% of THL. A further 16% of the register has indicated support. The board is currently reviewing the bid. This is already the second proposal from the same buyer group, and it comes 35% above the first NZ$2.3/share bid made a year ago, in June 2025. The board rejected it as too low, opportunistic, and coming at the bottom of the business cycle. Nonetheless, it left the door open to engage “if a significantly improved offer is provided,” and stated that it viewed THL’s value as “well north of NZ$3 per share.” There are decent odds the transaction will progress to a binding offer phase, maybe even with a small price bump. THL write-up.
IDEA UPDATES
Optimum Communications (OPTU) — correction: the setup is applicable to odd-lot accounts only
The initial pitch incorrectly stated that the tender covers 80% of the free float. The actual figure is 43% of the float. If the tender closes on current terms, the proration is likely to be high. Thus the setup applies mostly to odd-lot positions, which will be accepted on a priority basis. Playing this with larger positions might still work out, but the pay-off will depend on where the shares will trade post-tender. OPTU write-up.
DCC (DCC.L) — deadline to make a firm offer by June 10
The official put-up-or-shut-up deadline for the consortium to submit a firm bid or walk away is tomorrow, June 10. As we have not heard anything so far, I assume the discussions are still ongoing. A revised £65/share bid was briefly mentioned by Sky News City Editor Mark Kleinman on X, though the post was subsequently deleted. DCC write-up.
oOh!media (OML.AX) — buyout discussions remain ongoing with multiple parties
Despite rumors suggesting that one of the bidders, I Squared Capital, was losing interest, the company officially clarified that discussions remain active and ongoing with Pacific Equity Partners, I Squared Capital, Bain Capital and other parties. Management also noted that the company “has received conditional non-binding indicative offers from Bain Capital and other financial sponsors which are consistent with the terms of the I Squared Capital proposal.” Purely judging from the wording of this press release, A$1.45/share continues to look like a floor for any buyout offers (vs. A$1.37 today). OML write-up.
Dickson Concept (0113.HK) — a fresh privatization bid is expected in the coming months
The company reported its FY 2026 financial results: nothing new or unexpected, with management citing soft market conditions and weak consumer sentiment across the board. While management continues to play the same tune by downplaying expectations, a fresh bid from founder/chairman Poon might be coming shortly. The window for a re-bid will open in July (the end of the 12-month cooling-off period). The previous bid of HK$7.20/share failed by only a tiny margin. Net cash is at HK$3bn and operations generate HK$0.2bn in net profit annually, whereas market cap is only HK$2.5bn. It is very unlikely Poon’s interest in taking the company private has changed. 0113 write-up.
Bel Fuse (BELFA) — shareholders downvoted the conversion proposal
Gamco’s proposal to collapse the dual-class structure by converting all Class A shares into Class B shares did not pass the shareholder vote. The approval of the conversion option would have been nice and immediate catalyst, but it was not the core part of the thesis. Historically, the spread between the two classes of shares has closed on its own, routinely reverting to 0% and even inverting completely. BELFA write-up.
CLOSED Enviri (NVRI) — special situation angle played out
The company returned $15/share in dividends from the sold operations and the new NVRI started trading. The special situation angle has largely played out and any further upside is a bet on the valuation and rerating of the new NVRI. It might be cheap (trades at 6x $140m EBITDA guidance), but normalization of Harsco Rail operations and rerating of the stock will likely take time. NVRI write-up.