A signed merger with nearly every condition met now trades as if completion is close to a coin flip.
Spreads on binding deals rarely widen this much without a headline. The transaction has already cleared antitrust review and the shareholder vote, and only one regulatory sign-off remains. Neither party nor the regulator has announced anything, and trading volume barely picked up.
The market may know something that is not yet public. But if nothing material has changed, the selling looks more like confusion feeding on itself. In that case, the risk/reward has shifted in a big way. Even a renegotiated deal would leave meaningful upside from current levels.
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