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Focus List: 17 Actionable Special Sits

It has been a very productive year so far. We have published 73 new investment ideas on SSI, and while many have already played out, 42 write-ups are still marked as active.

Large-cap M&A basket

Given the recent widening of the arbitrage spreads we have reassessed all of the U.S. listed large-cap arbitrages with 10%+ spreads and selected 6 of those situations for our large-cap M&A basket.

Guide to Merger Arbitrage

Merger arbitrage has become a popular investment strategy used both by professional capital allocators and retail investors alike.

CBS Corp (CBS) – Split Off transaction – $470 opportunity

Current Price –CBS $58.45, ETM $11.20

Offer Price – $1.08 stock of ETM for $1 stock of CBS (subject to upper limit of 5.7466 ETM shares per share of CBS)

Upside – 8% or $470 for Odd Lot holders

Expiration date – November 16, 2017

This is a standard split-off transaction of which I have already posted quite a few. The most recent ones were PG/COTY and LMT/LDOS split-offs. CBS also had another split-off back in 2014. I recommend reading through those and examining share price behavior during and after the tender to familiarize yourselves with risks involved in this kind of transaction.

ZAIS Group (ZAIS) – Going Private – 23% upside

Current Price – $3.25

Acquisition Price – $4.00

Upside – 23%

Expiration Date – TBD

This is a microcap arbitrage opportunity  that was suggested by one of the members (thank you Ivan). CEO is willing to take this failed SPAC private at 23% premium to current share price.

OCB Bancorp (OJCB) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% uspide

Current Price – $12.75

Acquisition Price – $14

Upside – 10%

Expiration Date –  Q4 2017

This is straight forward merger arbitrage opportunity in nanocap land. Liquidity is very low – thus limit orders and lots of patience are needed to accumulate the position. I consider current spread (10%) to be attractive as I see limited risks of this deal falling apart. Low liquidity is likely the main reason for the spread to exists.

Ferronordic (FNMA-PREF.ST) – Preferred Redemption – 12% upside

Current Price – SEK 1070

Expected Price – SEK 1200

Upside – 12%

Expiration Date – Q3-Q4 2017

 

Ferronordic  preferreds are very likely to be redeemed by the company at 12% premium to current market price. Recent communication by the company hints that this is likely to happen before the next dividend payment (Oct 2017). Preferreds trade in Stockholm and it is possible to buy then through IB.

Rite Aid (RAD) – Merger Arbitrage – 77% upside

Current Price –$3.67

Expected Price – $6.5

Upside – 77%

Expiration Date – Dec 2017

This is my second look at the pending WBA/RAD merger – I was spectacularly wrong the first time and the only consolation is that market was wrong as well – the spread narrowed to 3% before the deal started collapsing. The merger agreement has been adjusted – instead of $9/share WBA is planning to acquire RAD at $6.5-$7/share (77% upside) and higher number of stores will be divested to FRED in order to satisfy FTC requirements. As before the key concern/risk is FTC rejection of the transaction.

Destination Maternity (DEST) – Merger Arbitrage – 34% upside

Current Price –$3.49

Offer Price – $4.6

Upside – 34%

Expiration Date – Q3 2017 (expected)

Destination Maternity is due to merge with french Orchestra Premaman (KAZI) and the spread is 34%. The main official rationale for the merger is revenue synergies as both companies are selling complimentary products in different geographies.

AP alternative Assets (AAA:AMS) – Liquidation/Arbitrage – 8% upside

Current Price –$35.5

Offer Price – $38.5

Upside – 8%

Expiration Date – Q1 2018 (or earlier)

8% in a year might not sound overly attractive at first, but I consider this arbitrage opportunity to be close to risk free. The partnership will gradually distribute its only asset (which is ATH shares – large cap health insurer) to unitholders and then liquidate. AAA trades in Amsterdam and it is possible to purchase units using Interactive Brokers.

Tangoe (TNGO) – Forced Selling + Merger Arbitrage – 25% upside

Current Price – $5.13

Expected Buyout – $6.5

Upside – 25%

Expiration Date – TBD

This is a fairly straightforward situation. Tangoe received non-binding proposals to be acquired by Marlin Equity Partners (10% shareholder) at $7.5/share and by Clearlake Capital Group and Vector Capital Management (jointly 25% shareholders) at $7/share. Following further discussions Marlin later reduced their proposal to $6.5/share. Clearlake/Vector have not issued any further updates with regards to their offer so it is not clear whether their proposal still stands.

Zweig Fund (ZF) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% upside

Current Price – $11.16

Expected Buyout – $11.85

Upside – 7%

Expiration Date – 31st of March, 2017

 

This is a relatively straightforward situation and I will keep the write-up light as I am travelling today (happy to expand more in the comments section later).

Zweig Fund (ZF) and Virtus Total Return Fund (DCA) will be merged by the end of March. Both closed end funds are administered by the same asset manager and shareholders have already agreed to the merger.

Prospect Japan Fund (PJF.LON) – Merger Arbitrage – 44% upside

Current Price – $1.26

Expected Buyout – $1.81

Upside – 44%

Expiration Date – expected in H1 2017

Prospect Japan Fund trades below its NAV and received a non-binding all-stock buyout offer from the related party. This offer values the fund at $2.15/share – equivalent to 70% upside. The merger is very likely to go through. The biggest risk is market price of the acquirers shares which affects not only the eventual payout (no possibilities to hedge) but also the NAV of PJF.

PennTex Midstream (PTXP) – Acquisition Target – 50% upside

Current Price – $15

Expected Buyout – $23

Upside – 50%

Expiration Date – TBD (expected in H1 2017)

 

Penntex Midstream is likely to be fully acquired by ETP, which already owns 65% of the company. This is similar to OCI/OCIP transaction that was posted on the site earlier as well as a number of other consolidations in the MLP space (TRP/CPPL, TLLP/QEPM) whereby general partner which owns majority of MLP buys out the remaining limited partner units.

Syngenta (SYT) – Merger Arbitrage – 17% upside

Current Price –$79.34

Offer Price – $93

Upside – 17.5%

Expiration Date – TBD (likely in H1 2017)

 

Let me start by saying that this is a large cap transaction and the deal is widely followed and analysed – I do not have any superior insights with regards to the likelihood of the transaction going through so my opinion is as good as anybody’s else. However, I believe this opportunity is quite interesting, spread is large (17%) and therefore worth flagging.

Rite Aid (RAD) and Fred’s (FRED) – Merger Arbitrage With Hedge – 9% upside

Current Price –$8.25

Offer Price – $9.00

Upside – 9.0%

Expiration Date – Jan 2017

 

This is another large cap merger arbitrage deal where the spread of 9% is mostly due to pending regulatory approval. Recent developments suggest the deal is likely to close. At the same time there is opportunity to hedge the risk of the deal failing.

Transalta (TA-PD.TO) – Exchange Offer – 2.7% upside

Arbitrage Trade

Upside – 2.7%

Expiration Date – Q1 2017

 

This idea was suggested to me by one reader of the site – it’s an arbitrage trade in Canadian preferred shares. Upside is tiny, but the deal itself is interesting – so I decided to write it up. I have a small position mainly to track how this transaction plays out.

OCI Partners (OCIP) – Merger Arbitrage – 5.3% upside

Current Price –$7.5

Offer Price – $7.9

Upside – 5.3%

Expiration Date – TBD (expected Q1 2017)

 

This is a merger arbitrage situation, where current acquisition proposal understates the value of the company and the risk of deal getting cancelled is low. The spread is at 5.3%.