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2017 Year in Review – Quick STATS

It was a very interesting year for Special Situation Investments. In total there have been 38 investment ideas posted during the year and members added a further 12 in the new ‘Member Idea’ section. By luck or skill the performance has been great – only two trades ended in losses and the rest averaged 15% returns. Scope continued to widen and only 10 out of 38 investment opportunities were odd-lots.



China Digital TV (STVVY) – Ex-dividend day – 70% potential return

Current Price –$1.4

Expected Price – $0.35 (if today is the ex-dividend day)

Upside – 70%

Expiration Date – May 26th, 2017

This is a quick message, as this is a timely situation and I did not have time to do a full write-up. Shares at current prices are either a good short (if today is ex-dividend) or a good long (if today is not ex-dividend), so if anyone manages to figure out which way it is, you stand to make a ton of



Wingstop (WING) – Irrational Algo Trading – 10% upside

Current Price – $32.99

Expected Price – <$30

Upside – 10%+

Expiration Date – Two weeks

This is a slightly different Special Situation opportunity. Yesterday WING stock jumped +13.8% in after-hours trading following the release of Q1 earnings. I believe this trading was mainly caused by algorithmic robot trading or completely superficial retail investors who misread the headline numbers for huge improvement in operational performance. In reality Q1 earnings showed hardly any positives.I expect the share price to revert at least to pre Q1 release levels ($29)



Action Semiconductors (ANR) – Tender Offer – 12.5% upside

Current Price – $2.4

Offer Price – $2.5 – $2.7

Upside – 12.5.% (if the upper pricing limit is used)

Expiration date – 18 September 2014

There is no provision for odd-lots

SEC Filling

Summary:

Actions Semiconductor Co is offering to purchase for cash up to 60,000,000 of its ordinary shares, $0.000001 par value per share (including Shares represented by American Depositary Shares (the “ADSs”)), at a purchase price not greater than $7/15 per Share (or $2.80 per ADS) nor less



Global Eagle Entertainment (ENT) – Warrant Exchange Offer – minimal upside currently

Current Price – $3.75/warrant, $11.13/share

Offer – 1 warrant to 0.33 common shares.

Upside – 1%

Expiration date – 11 September 2014

SEC Filling

Summary:

The Offer is to permit holders of Warrants to tender up to 15,000,000 Warrants at an exchange ratio of 0.3333 Shares for each Warrant tendered (approximately one Share for every three Warrants tendered), subject to proration, as described herein. 

As of August 13, 2014, the Company had 22,831,263 Warrants outstanding. Each Warrant is exercisable for one Share at

 

Nuveen Nasdaq 100 (QQQX) – Arbitrage Trade – 4% upside

Current Price – $20.05

Expected Price – $19.20

Upside – 4%

Expiration timeframe – 1-2 weeks

This is a fairly simple and straightforward arbitrage idea. QQQX is a closed and fund that is mimicking Nasdaq 100 index and trying to juice up the returns by selling covered calls. Historically this fund has always traded at c. 5% discount to NAV – discount to NAV prevails mainly due to funds admin fees, which are levied on shareholders returns. You can see NAV vs share price



InspireMD (NSPR) – Reverse Stock Split – 1000% upside

Although 1000% might look good, in absolute value it is worth only $2 (from $0.22 to $2.27), but I thought this was still an interesting case for educational purposes.

The reason for such a large upside is that InspireMD is doing reverse stock split (10 for 1) and instead of cashing out the fractional shares, it will round up to the nearest whole share. So anyone who has between 1-10 current shares will receive a single post-reverse-split share. So if