Liberty SiriusXM (LSXMK) – Discount Mean Reversion – 10% Upside
Current Discount: 38%
Average Discount: 28%
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: TBD
Inactive ideas
Active ideas
Inactive ideas
Yellow Cake (YCA.L) – Discount Convergence – 13% Upside
Current Price: £1.98
Estimated Value: £2.24
Upside: 13% Upside
Expiration Date: TBD
Temple Hotels (TPH.TO) – Expected Buyout – Upside TBD
Liberty SiriusXM (LSXMK) – Discount Mean Reversion – 10%+ upside
Current Price – $40.9
Target Price – $47 (assuming discount to SIRI reverts to historical 20%)
Upside – 10%+
Expiration Date – TBD
Aveda Transportation & Energy (AVE.V) – CVR – 45% Potential Upside
Current Price – C$0.95
Merger Consideration – C$0.90 + C$0.45 Earnout
Upside – 45%
Expiration Date – 30th of May, 2018
Reckon (RKN.AX) – Business Sale – 40% upside
Current Price – A$1.21
Acquisition Price – A$1.69
Upside – 40%
Expiration Date – Q2 2018
Computer Task Group (CTG) – Tender Offer + Shorting Opportunity – 10%-30% Upside
Current Price – $8.10
Tender Price – $8.05 – $9.00
Upside from Tender – 11% or $90 (if tender is priced at the upper limit)
Upside from Shorting – 30% (if share price reverts to unaffected levels)
Expiration Date – 16th of April 2018
Stanley Furniture (STLY) – Delisting and Forced Selling – 30% upside
Current Price – $0.58
Unaffected share price – $0.7 – $0.8
Upside – 18%-30%
Expiration Date – TBD
2017 Year in Review – Quick STATS
It was a very interesting year for Special Situation Investments. In total there have been 38 investment ideas posted during the year and members added a further 12 in the new ‘Member Idea’ section. By luck or skill the performance has been great – only two trades ended in losses and the rest averaged 15% returns. Scope continued to widen and only 10 out of 38 investment opportunities were odd-lots.
China Digital TV (STVVY) – Ex-dividend day – 70% potential return
Current Price –$1.4
Expected Price – $0.35 (if today is the ex-dividend day)
Upside – 70%
Expiration Date – May 26th, 2017
This is a quick message, as this is a timely situation and I did not have time to do a full write-up. Shares at current prices are either a good short (if today is ex-dividend) or a good long (if today is not ex-dividend), so if anyone manages to figure out which way it is, you stand to make a ton of
Wingstop (WING) – Irrational Algo Trading – 10% upside
Current Price – $32.99
Expected Price – <$30
Upside – 10%+
Expiration Date – Two weeks
This is a slightly different Special Situation opportunity. Yesterday WING stock jumped +13.8% in after-hours trading following the release of Q1 earnings. I believe this trading was mainly caused by algorithmic robot trading or completely superficial retail investors who misread the headline numbers for huge improvement in operational performance. In reality Q1 earnings showed hardly any positives.I expect the share price to revert at least to pre Q1 release levels ($29)
Action Semiconductors (ANR) – Tender Offer – 12.5% upside
Current Price – $2.4
Offer Price – $2.5 – $2.7
Upside – 12.5.% (if the upper pricing limit is used)
Expiration date – 18 September 2014
There is no provision for odd-lots
Summary:
Actions Semiconductor Co is offering to purchase for cash up to 60,000,000 of its ordinary shares, $0.000001 par value per share (including Shares represented by American Depositary Shares (the “ADSs”)), at a purchase price not greater than $7/15 per Share (or $2.80 per ADS) nor less
Global Eagle Entertainment (ENT) – Warrant Exchange Offer – minimal upside currently
Current Price – $3.75/warrant, $11.13/share
Offer – 1 warrant to 0.33 common shares.
Upside – 1%
Expiration date – 11 September 2014
Summary:
The Offer is to permit holders of Warrants to tender up to 15,000,000 Warrants at an exchange ratio of 0.3333 Shares for each Warrant tendered (approximately one Share for every three Warrants tendered), subject to proration, as described herein.
As of August 13, 2014, the Company had 22,831,263 Warrants outstanding. Each Warrant is exercisable for one Share at
Biglari Holdings (BH) – Forced Selling & Expected Repurchases – 20% upside
Nuveen Nasdaq 100 (QQQX) – Arbitrage Trade – 4% upside
Current Price – $20.05
Expected Price – $19.20
Upside – 4%
Expiration timeframe – 1-2 weeks
This is a fairly simple and straightforward arbitrage idea. QQQX is a closed and fund that is mimicking Nasdaq 100 index and trying to juice up the returns by selling covered calls. Historically this fund has always traded at c. 5% discount to NAV – discount to NAV prevails mainly due to funds admin fees, which are levied on shareholders returns. You can see NAV vs share price
