TIGO – Potential Bidding War – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Regional Health Properties (RHE-PA)
RHE-PA – Preferred Stock Exchange – 100% Upside
AMC Entertainment (APE) – Share Class Arbitrage – 30% Upside
Current Price: $2.26 + $0.76
Target Price: $4
Upside: 30%
Expiration Date: March 14
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For SIOX, CTLT, OTIC
SIOX – Liquidation – 21% upside
CTLT – Rumored Takeover – Upside TBD
OTIC – Liquidation – 18% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitch For MGTA
MGTA – Strategic Review – Upside TBD
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For TBRD.V, FNCH, TYR.AX
TBRD.V – Strategic Review – 33% Upside
FNCH – Strategic Review – Upside TBD
TYR.AX – Expected Higher Bid – 15% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For BATRA, CNCE, ELSE
BATRA – Split-Off/Potential Takeover – 41% Upside
CNCE – CVR – Multibagger Upside on CVR
ELSE – Merger Arbitrage – 27%+ Upside
Merger Arb With Wide Spreads (26th of Jan)
I am refreshing SSI review of all merger arbs with wide spreads.
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For OABI, ALBO, AMYT, CF.TO
OABI – Forced Selling After Spin-Off – 140% Upside
ALBO – CVR – 5x Upside
AMYT – CVR – Multibagger Upside
CF.TO – Expected Buyout Price Increase – 8% Upside
PhaseBio Pharmaceuticals (PHASQ) – Emergence From Bankruptcy – Mutibagger Upside
Current Price: $0.017
Target Price: $0.15+
Upside: multibagger
Expiration Date: H1 2023
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For SQZ.L, WWE, AAMC
SQZ.L – Activist Campaign – 40% Upside
WWE – Expected Buyout – Upside TBD
AAMC – Buyback Incentive – Upside TBD
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For RFP, CBIO, ISO
RFP – CVR – 250% Upside
CBIO – Liquidation – 22% Upside
ISO – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For SIOX, OIIM
SIOX – Liquidation – 25%+ Upside
OIIM – Chinese Privatisation – 10% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For SGA, DNTL.TO, CBIO
SGA – Potential Company Sale – 25%+ Upside
DNTL.TO – Potential Buyout – Upside TBD
CBIO – Liquidation – 29% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For BBXIA, SPNE, UNVR, AAV.TO
BBXIA – Price Pullback Post Tender Offer – 8% Upside
SPNE – Merger Arbitrage – 21% Upside
UNVR – Potential Buyout – 31% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For TRQ, TBRD.V, SCU
TRQ.TO – Merger Arbitrage and Appraisal Rights
TBRD.V – Activist Campaign/Potential Sale
SCU – Strategic Review/Potential Sale – Upside TBD
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For GSMG, LMN.SW, SO.PA
GSMG – Chinese Take-Private
LMN.SW – Activist Campaign/Potential Sale
SO.PA – Expected Tender Price Increase
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For CCRD, OYST, WGO.AX and 3 Tenders
CCRD – Potential Buyout
OYST – Merger Arb & CVR
WGO.AX – Potential Bidding War
ACQ.TO – Tender Offer
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For AIMC, 0273.HK, IMO.TO
AIMC – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
0273.HK – Merger Arbitrage – 20%+ Upside
IMO.TO – Odd-Lot Tender Offer – $1100 Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For AKUS, LMST, NTO.AX, SCHL
AKUS – Merger Arbitrage & CVR – Upside TBD
LMST – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
NTO.AX – Potential Bidding War- Upside TBD
SCHL – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $260 Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For GNX.AX, SIOX, SOT-UN, TBPH
GNX.AX – Merger Arbitrage – 25% Upside
SIOX – Strategic Review – 50% Discount To Net Cash
SOT-UN.TO – Strategic Review/Activist Campaign – Upside TBD
TBPH – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $75 Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For PMCB, GFF
PMCB – Strategic Review/Activist Pressure – 37% Upside
GFF – Strategic review – Upside TBD
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For B, DXC, AGF-B
B – Merger Arbitrage – 90%+ Upside
DXC – Potential Takeover – 64% Upside
AGF-B.TO – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$75 Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For ZVO, CANO and XX.V
ZVO – Liquidation – 200% Upside
CANO – Potential Takeover – 58% Upside
XX.V – Potential Takeover – 60%+ Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For OIIM, KNBE, CCHWF, ATCO, LSF, MN
OIIM – Chinese Privatisation – 25% Upside
KNBE – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
LSF – Merger Arbitrage – 67% Upside
MN – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For VNET, SGA, PRPL, and DR.TO
VNET – Merger Arbitrage – 36% Upside
SGA – Potential Takeover – 22% Upside
PRPL – Non-Binding Takeover Interest – 11% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches For BOCH.L, TNA.V, DMS, ADT and VLNS
DMS – Privatization By Management – 20% Upside
BOCH.L – Merger Arbitrage – 15%+ Upside
VLNS – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
TNA.V – Merger Arbitrage – 6.5% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches For SWKH, APE and IMRA
APE – Share Class Arbitrage – 69% Upside
IMRA – Strategic Review – 58% Upside
SWKH – Potential Takeover – 24% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitch For FBRX
FBRX – Multiple Activist Campaigns – 30% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for ATCO, AGS, LOTZ, OZL.AX, IS, LMPX
AGS – Merger Arbitrage/Potential Higher Offer – 21%+ Upside
ATCO – Expected Higher Bid – 16% Upside
IS – Merger Arbitrage – 27% Upside
LOTZ – Merger Arbitrage – 40% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for ALX, TTNP, IFM.AX
ALX – Activist Campaign – 50% Upside
TTNP – Reverse Merger/Activism – TBD Upside
IFM.AX – Merger Arbitrage/Bidding War – 9%+ Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for KINS, KLTR, ANGN, HSBI, PIXY
KINS – Potential Sale / Activist Pressure – 30%+ Upside
KLTR – Merger Arbitrage – 16%+ Upside
ANGN – Net-Net / Strategic Review – 34% Upside
HSBI – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for URF.AX, IMRA, RPID, CRNT, CTEK, VIVO
URF.AX – Liquidation – 100% Upside
IMRA – Strategic Review – 100% Upside
RPID – Merger Arbitrage – 9%+ Upside
RAP.AX – Merger Arbitrage – 27% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for RDUS, MITO, CBIO, NXDT, WOW, RNWK
RDUS – Merger Arbitrage With CVR – 12x Upside
NXDT – REIT Conversion – 40%-50% Upside
CBIO – Expected Liquidation – 16% Upside
MITO – Going Private – 7%+ Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for RFP, RBCN, BHVN, FEC.TO, GSMG
RBCN – Cash Shell with a Tender Offer – 18x Upside
RFP – Merger Arbitrage with CVR – 32% Upside
FEC.TO – Odd Lot Tender Offer – 18% Upside
GSMG – Chinese Take-Private – 15% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for HMTV, USWS, WOW, UEX.TO, TGR.AX, EVO.AX
EVO.AX – Activist Campaign/Company Sale – 100% Upside
USWS – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
WOW – Rumored Sale – TBD Upside
UEX.TO – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG) – Merger + Spin-Off – 12% Upside
Current Price: $26.63
Acquisition Price: $24.25 + $5.60 est. SpinCo NAV
Upside: 12%
Estimated Completion: Q2 2022
SSI Weekly – Pitches for TGR.AX, 0709.HK, ACQ.TO, EPZM
TGR.AX – Potential Higher Offer – TBD Upside
0709.HK – Take Private Atempt – TBD Upside
ACQ.TO – Tender Offer – TBD Upside
EPZM – Pharma CVR – 66% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for RAP.AX, CCHWF, LAIXY, POEFF, ASTL, GDNSF
RAP.AX – Merger Arbitrage – 17% Upside
CCHWF – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
LAIXY – Chinese Take-Private – 11% Upside
POEFF – Merger Arbitrage + Spin-off – 6%+ Upside
Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads (21st of Sep)
We are refreshing our review of all merger arbs with wide spreads. This is a continuation of the analysis from two months ago. Some of these have already been highlighted or posted on SSI. The spreads on average are not as wide as during the market rout at the beginning of July, but still, there are some potentially attractive opportunities.
SSI Weekly – Pitches for WEN, HMTV, HLG, FCIT, BIFF.L, PMD
WEN – Takeover Interest – 40% Upside
HMTV – Merger Arbitrage – 6%+ Upside
HLG – Chinese Take-Private – 11% Upside
FCIT – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for OMEX, PIRI.L, KTTA, ABIO, TYME, BKGM, BUKS, RADI
OMEX – Litigation – 10x-30x Upside
PIRI.L – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
KTTA – Activist Campaign – 88% Upside
ABIO – Activist Campaign – 35% Upside
Big River Gold (BRV.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: A$0.33
Offer Price: A$0.36
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: 1st of August’22
PFSweb (PFSW) – Large Capital Return/Company sale – Upside TBD
Current price: $11.64
Target price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: TBD
Regional Health Properties (RHE-PA) – Preferred Stock Exchange – 100%+ Upside
Current Price: $4.3
Redemption Price: $10.0 (incremental increases through 2025)
Upside: 100%+
Expiration Date: 2025
Ardent Leisure Group (ALG.AX) – Large Asset Sale/Capital Return – Upside TBD
Current Price: A$1.35
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: 2022-2023
Dolphin Capital Investors (DCI.L) – Liquidation – 90%+ Upside
Current Price: £0.035
Liquidation Value: £0.067
Upside: 90%+
Expiration Date: end 2024
Ambac Financial Group (AMBC) – Litigation – Potential for 100%+
Current Price: $13.8
Target Price: TBD
Upside: Potential for 100%+
Expiration Date: Fall 2022
Codorus Valley Bancorp (CVLY) – Activist Pressure/Potential Company Sale – 18%+ Upside
Current Price: $22.00
Target Price: $26.05+
Upside: 18%+
Expiration Date: May 2022
Volkswagen (VWAPY) – Premium Mean Reversion – 18% Upside
Current Premium: 23%
Average Premium: 5%
Upside: 18%
Expiration Date: TBD
24 Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads
Merger arb spreads are wide and there is a high number of opportunities now present in the straight-forward merger arbitrage space. Some of these have already been highlighted or posted on SSI. But to get a better picture, we have reviewed all US M&A deals with spreads of 10%+ (or close to it).
Tufin Software Technologies (TUFN) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $11.73
Offer Price: $13.00
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: July 2022
Metromile (MILE) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: $0.91
Offer Price: $1.03
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing Date: Early Q3 2022
Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Merger Arbitrage – Upside TBD
Current Price: $14.70
Offer Price: $15-$17 (with potential to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: Q2 2022
Shell Midstream Partners (SHLX) – Expected Higher Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: $13.80
Offer Price: $12.89 (likely to be increased)
Upside: exp. up to 10%
Timeline: 2-3 months
Starcore International Mines (SAM.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 34% Upside
Current Price: C$0.25
Offer Price: C$0.35
Upside: 34%
Expiration Date: TBD
River & Mercantile Group (RIV.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 21% Upside
Current Price: £2.64
Offer Price: £3.20 (£2.20 will be returned shortly)
Upside: 21% (or +125% for the stub)
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2022
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – Risk Free Upside
Current Price: C$61.88
Offer Price: C$62-C$78
Upside: C$12-C$1600 (for odd-lot positions)
Expiration Date: 10th of June
Home Bancorp Wisconsin (HWIS) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: $24.25
Offer Price: $26.47-$27.32
Upside: 9%-13%
Expected Closing: Q2 2022
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $325 Upside
Current Price: $28.71
Offer Price: $28-$32
Upside: $325 (for odd-lot positions at the upper price limit)
Expiration Date: 27th of May
Genesis Metals (GIS.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 26% Upside
Current Price: C$0.145
Offer Price: C$0.18
Upside: 26%
Expected Closing Date: July 2022
BlueCity (BLCT) – Going Private – 20%+ Upside
Current Price: $1.28
Offer Price: $1.55 (adj. by the ADS fee)
Upside: 20%+
Expected Closing Date: H2 2022
Marrone Bio Innovations (MBII) – Merger Arbitrage – 16% Upside
Current Price: $0.99
Offer Price: $1.15
Upside: 16%
Expiration Date: Q3 2022
BRP Inc. (DOO.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$800 Upside
Current Price: C$102.36
Offer Price: C$103 – C$120
Upside: C$800 (if priced in the middle of the range)
Expiration date: 6th of May 2022
Amarillo Gold (AGC.V) – Merger Arbitrage and Spin-Off – 15% Upside
Current Price: C$0.41
Offer Price: C$0.4 + 1 spin-co at C$0.072/share
Upside: up to 15%
Expected Close: March 2022
LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) – Merger Arbitrage/Increased Offer – Upside 6%+
Current Price: $15.16
Offer Price: $16.00 (potentially increased)
Upside: 6%+
Expiration Date: TBD
Paramount Group (PGRE) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $10.43
Offer Price: $12.00
Upside: 15%
Expiration Date: Q2 2022
Link Administration (LNK.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 10%+ Upside
Current Price: A$4.91 (updated, see comment below)
Offer Price: A$5.40+ (updated, see comment below)
Upside: 10%+
Expected Closing: TBD
Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings (LTRPA) – Capital Structure Arbitrage – Upside 10%-20%+
Current Premium: 20% (LTRPA at $2.01 and TRIP at $24.2)
Target Premium: -15%
Upside: 20%+ (depending on hedging ratio used)
Expiration Date: TBD
Cornerstone Building Brands (CNR) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: $21.84
Offer Price: $24.65
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
IGE+XAO (IGE.PA) – Expected Better Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: €262
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration date: Q4 2021
Minds + Machines (MMX.L) – Liquidation – 20%+ Upside
Current Price: £0.086/share
Liquidation Value: £0.104+/share
Upside: 20%+
Expiration Date: 21st of Feb
Canaccord Genuity Group (CF.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$80 Upside
Current price: C$14.68
Offer price: C$15.50 – C$16.50
Upside: C$80 (for odd lots at the lower limit)
Expiration: 27th of January 2022
Amerigo Resources (ARREF) – Dividend Reinstatement – 75%+ Upside
Current Price: $1.02
Target Price: $1.75+
Upside: 75%
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: $15.72
Offer Price: $17.10
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: TBD
China Zenix Auto (ZXAIY) – Going Private – 20% Upside
Current Price: $0.9
Target Price: $1.08
Upside: 20%
Expiration Date: Q1 2022
Adva Optical Networking (ADV.F) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: €13.00
Offer Price: €15.87
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: Q2-Q3 2022
Yorkey Optical International (2788.HK) – Expected Better Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: HK$0.82
Offer Price: HK$0.88 (expected to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expected Close: TBD
Marlin Business Services (MRLN) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: $22.11
Offer Price: $23.5
Upside: 6%
Expected Close: Q1 2022
Africa Opportunity Fund (AOF.L) – Liquidation – 70% Upside
Current Price: $0.60
Liquidation Value: $1.019
Upside: 70%
Expiration Date: mid-2022
Home Capital Group (HCG.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$200 Upside
Current Price: C$41.46
Offer Price: C$43.50 – C$48.50
Upside: C$200 – C$700 (upper and lower limit for odd lots)
Expiration Date: 21st December 2021
Soliton (SOLY) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $20.52
Offer Price: $22.60
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing Q4 2021
Laaco (LAACZ) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: $9133
Offer Price: $9840
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: December 2021
FNBH Bancorp (FNHM) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: $4.02
Offer Price: $4.2
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Arden Partners (ARDN.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 17% Upside
Current Price: £0.235
Offer Price: £0.27
Upside: 17%
Expected Closing: Q1 2022
JOYY (YY) – Expected Privatization Offer – 45% Upside
Current Price: $59.6
Target Price: $85
Upside: 45%
Expiration Date: TBD
Steel Connect (STCN) – Going Private – Upside TBD
Current Price: $1.90
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration date: TBD
SOL Global Investments (SOL.CN) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$65 Upside
Current Price: C$3.40
Offer Price: C$4.05 – C$4.25
Upside: C$65 (for odd lot accounts with no withholding taxes)
Expiration Date: 26th of November
iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK) – Merger Arbitrage – 8%+ Upside
Current Price: $6.95
Offer Price: $7.50
Upside: 8%+
Expected Closing: TBD
Apollo Consolidated (AOP.AX) – Potential Bidding War – Upside TBD
Current Price: A$0.59
Offer Price: A$0.56 (potentially to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expiration: Q4 2021
Tronox (TROX) – Merger Arbitrage – 16%+ Upside
Current Price: $23.24
Offer Price: $27.00
Upside: 16%+
Expiration Date: TBD
Sunnyside Bancorp (SNNY) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside (Updated)
Current Price: $14.60
Offer Price: $15.55 (updated to $20)
Upside: 7% (updated to 10%)
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
The ExOne Company (XONE) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: $23.48
Offer Price: $25.5
Upside: 9%
Expected Close: Q4 2021
Global Yachting Group (GYG.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: £0.82
Offer Price: £0.925
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing: July, 2021
Corning Natural Gas Holding (CNIG) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: $23.52
Offer price: $24.75
Upside: 5%
Expected closing: late 2021/early 2022.
Abitibi Royalties (RZZ.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 17% Upside
Current Price: C$25.65
Offer Price: C$29.88
Upside: 17%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Rifco (RFC.V) – Going Private – 5% Upside
Current Price: C$1.10
Offer Price: C$1.15
Upside: 5%
Expiration Date: TBD
Ferro Corporation (FOE) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: $20.35
Offer Price $22
Upside: 8%
Expected Close: Q1 2022
Edgewater Bancorp (EGDW) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $37.55
Offer Price: $39.47-$43.22
Upside: 5%-15%
Expected Closing: Q2 2021
Genesis Emerging Markets Fund (GSS.L) – Upcoming Tender Offer – 7% Upside
Current Price: £9.03
Offer Price: £9.62
Upside: 7%
Expiration Date: TBD
Enzo Biochem (ENZ) – Activism and Potential Sale – 84% Upside (Uncertain)
Current Price: $2.99
Target Price: $5.51 (uncertain)
Upside: 84%
Expiration Date: TBD
Isabella Bank (ISBA) – Tender Offer And Potential M&A Target – Upside TBD
Current Price: $25.75
Offer Price: $23.00 – $27.00
Upside: $123 (for odd lots at upper limit)
Expiration Date: 13th of October 2021
iCar Asia Limited (ICQ.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: A$0.45
Offer Price: A$0.55
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: TBD
Safeguard Scientific (SFE) – Tender Offer and Liquidation – 35% Upside
Current Price: $8.54
Offer Price: $7.90 – $9.00 and $11+ in liquidation case
Upside: $45 in tender for odd-lots or 35%+ in liquidation case
Expiration Date: October 1st, 2021
Royal Financial (RYFL) – Merger Arbitrage With Odd Lot – 7% Upside
Current Price: $18.62
Offer Price: $19.84
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing Date: Q1 2022
InvenTrust Properties (IVT) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $340 Upside
Current Price: $24.60
Offer Price: $25.00 – $28.00
Upside: $340 (for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 8th of November
Aquila Resources (AQARF) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $0.0629
Offer Price: $0.0674
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
New Carolin Gold (LAD.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 20% Upside
Current Price: C$0.08
Offer Price: C$0.096
Upside: 20%
Expected Closing: September 2021
SOHO China (0410.HK) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: HK$4.10
Offer Price: HK$5.00
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: end 2021
Carnival Corporation & Plc (CUK) – Share Class Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $26.01
Target Price: $30.15
Upside: 15%
Expiration Date: TBD
Cambria Automobiles (CAMB.L) – Expected Better Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: £0.75
Offer Price: £0.80 (higher offer is expected)
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q3 2021
Millennial Lithium (ML.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: C$3.32
Offer Price: C$3.6
Upside: 8%
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
Banco Santander Mexico (BSMX) – Expected Higher Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: $6.19
Offer Price: $6.21
Upside: TBD
Expected Closing: Q3 2021
Iress (IRE.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: A$13.99
Target Price: A$15.75
Upside: 13%
Expiration date: Sep 2021
Ossen Innovation (OSN) – Going Private – 12% Upside
Current Price: $4.57
Offer Price: $5.10
Upside: 12%
Expected Closing: H1 2021
Flagstar Bancorp (FBC) – Merger Arbitrage – 5%+ Upside
Current Price: $41.82
Offer Price: $44.05
Upside: 5%+
Expected Closing Date: Aug’21
Sogou (SOGO) – Going Private Transaction – 9% Upside
Current Price: $8.26
Offer Price: $9.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: mid-2021
West Fraser Timber (WFG.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$1340 Upside
Current Price: C$84.43
Offer Price: C$85 – C$98
Upside: C$1340 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 17th of August 2021
Vectura (VEC.L) – Bidding War – Upside TBD
Current Price: £1.514
Offer Price: £1.50 (expected to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: TBD
Golden Predator Mining (GPY.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 22%
Current Price: C$0.135
Offer Price: C$0.165
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: September 2021
Fairfax India Holdings (FIH-U.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $189 Upside
Current Price: $13.09
Offer Price: $12.50-$15
Upside: $189 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 6th of August, 2021
Newater Technology (NEWA) – Going Private – 16% Upside
Current Price: $3.16
Offer Price: $3.65
Upside: 16%
Expected Closing: TBD
Wright Investors’ Service Holdings (IWSH) – Net-Net – 43% Upside
Current Price: $0.21
Target Price: $0.30
Upside: 43%
Expiration Date: TBD
Roxgold (ROXG.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: C$2.14
Offer Price: C$2.26
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: early July 2021
Eagle Bancorp Montana (EBMT) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $246 Upside
Current Price: $23.76
Offer Price: $24-$26.25
Upside: $246 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 22nd of June 2021
Tarena International (TEDU) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: $3.68
Offer Price: $4.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: TBD
China Customer Relations Center (CCRC) – Going Private – 6% Upside
Current Price:$6.15
Offer Price: $6.50
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: TBD
51job (JOBS) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $71.72
Offer Price: $79.05
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
Landmark Bancorp (LDKB) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $19.70
Offer Price: $21.03
Upside 7%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Great Canadian Gaming (GC.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: C$37.24
Offer Price: C$41.00+ (updated C$45.00)
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: TBD
Community Savings Bancorp (CCSB) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: $20.00
Offer Price: $22.76
Upside 14%
Expected Closing Date: Q4 2021
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $300 Upside
Current Price: $60
Offer Price: $56 – $63
Upside: $300 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 14th of June, 2021
Discovery (DISCA) – Forced Sell-Off – 20% Upside
Current Price: $42.30
Target Price: $51
Upside: 20%
Expiration date: TBD
Bacanora (BCN.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: £0.552
Offer Price: £0.675 (updated to c. £0.725)
Upside: 22%
Expiration Date: TBD
UrbanGold Minerals (UGM.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: C$0.28
Offer Price C$0.32
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: end of May’21
Redflex Holdings (RDF.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: A$0.87
Offer Price: A$0.92
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: May 2021
China XD Plastics (CXDC) – Going Private – 13% Upside
Current Price: $1.06
Offer Price: $1.20
Upside: 13%
Expiration Date: 10th of May 2021
Viva Gold (VAU.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 38% Upside
Current Price: C$0.285
Offer Price: C$0.392
Upside: 38%
Expected Closing: early May 2021
Alcanna (CLIQ.TO) – Odd-Lot Tender Offer – C$56 Upside
Current Price: C$7.73
Offer Price: C$7.55 – C$8.30
Upside: C$56 (for odd-lots at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 12th May
Enel America’s (ENIA) – Tender Offer – 4%+ Upside
Current Price: $8.40
Offer Price: $9.75
Upside: 4%+
Expiration date: 13th of April
Zenabis (ZENA.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 25% Upside
Current Price: C$0.125
Offer Price: C$0.157
Upside: 25%
Expiration Date: TBD
Bingo Industries (BIN.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: A$3.24
Offer Price: A$3.50
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: TBD
Plateau Energy Metals (PLU.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 27%+ Upside
Current Price: C$0.74
Offer Price: C$0.94+
Upside: 27%+
Expected Closing: April/May 2021
Equiniti (EQN.L) – Rumored Takeover – 22% Upside
Current Price: £1.39
Offer Price: £1.70
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
CCUR Holdings (CCUR) – Reverse Stock Split – $270 Upside
Current Price: $2.77
Offer Price: $2.86
Upside: $270 (for 2999 shares)
Expiration Date: TBD
CRA International (CRAI) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $600 Upside
Current Price: $70
Offer Price: $66.25 – $76.00
Upside: $600 (odd-lot)
Expiration Date: 5th of April 2021
Arrow Global (ARW.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: £2.68
Offer Price: £3.05
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing Date: TBD (potentially 8th of March)
Hunters Property (HUNT.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 16% Upside
Current Price: £0.67
Offer Price: £0.78
Upside: 16%
Expected Closing: March 2021
QMX Gold (QMX.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: C$0.30
Offer Price: C$0.33
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: late March/early April 2021
Idox (IDOX.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 3%+ Upside
Current Price: £0.73
Offer Price: £0.753+
Upside: 3%+
Expiration date: TBD
Gridsum Holdings (GSUM) – Going Private – 10% Upside
Current Price: $1.82
Offer Price: $2.00
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Zagg (ZAGG) – Merger Arbitrage & CVR – 7% Upside
Current Price: $4.17
Offer Price: $4.20 + $0.25 in CVR
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Mama Mancini (MMMB) – Uplisting – Upside 50%
Current Price: $2.07
Offer Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration date: TBD
3P Learning (3PL.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: A$1.38
Offer Price: A$1.50
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
Cellular Biomedicine Group (CBMG) – Going Private – 7% Upside
Current Price: $18.49
Offer Price: $19.75
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Wanda Sports Group (WSG) – Going Private – 11% Upside
Current Price: $2.25
Offer Price: $2.50
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: TBD
Prevail Therapeutics (PRVL) – Merger Arbitrage & CVR – 15% Upside
Current Price: $23.08
Offer Price: $22.50 + $4.00 in CVR
Upside: 15% (589% on CVR investment)
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
CIMC-TianDa Holdings (0445.HK) – Going Private – 8% Upside
Current Price: HK$0.246
Offer Price: HK$0.266
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: December 2020
Orca Exploration (ORC-B.V) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$40 Upside
Current Price: C$6.10
Offer Price: C$6.50-C$7.50
Upside: C$40 (tendering 99 shares at the lower limit)
Expiration Date: 20th of January
Dundee Corporation (DC-A.TO) – Odd Lot Dutch Tender Offer – 14% Upside
Current Price: C$1.40
Offer Price: C$1.40 – C$1.60
Upside: 14% (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 11th of January 2021
Consol Coal Resources (CCR) – Merger Arbitrage – 4% Upside
Current Price: $3.16
Offer Price: $3.28
Upside: 4%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
MVB Financial (MVBF) – Modified Dutch Tender Offer – TBD Upside
Current Price: $20.34
Offer Price: $18.00 – $20.25
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: 18th of December
Powerleader Science & Technology Group (8236.HK) – Going Private – 13% Upside
Current Price: HK$3.47
Offer Price: HK$3.92
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing: TBD
Riviera Resources (RVRA) – Liquidation – 27% Upside
Current Price: $1.73
Liquidation Value: $2.20
Upside: 27%
Expiration Date: TBD
BMW Group (BMW.DE) – Discount Mean Reversion – 7% Upside
Current Discount: 23%
Average Discount: 16%
Upside: 7%
Expiration Date: TBD
Altice USA (ATUS) – Odd Lot Dutch Tender Offer – $174 Upside
Current Price: $34.24
Offer Price: $32.25 – $36.00
Upside: $174 (for 99 shares)
Expiration date: 21st December 2020
Grifols (GRFS) – Discount Mean Reversion – 8% Upside
Current Discount: 36%
Average Discount: 28%
Upside: 8%
Expiration Date: TBD
TMAC Resources (TMR.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: C$1.54
Offer Price: C$1.75
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Driven Deliveries (DRVD) – Merger Arbitrage – 11% Upside
Current Price: $0.35
Offer Price: $0.39
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: Late 2020
GMP Capital (GMP.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$47 Upside
Current Price: C$1.94
Offer Price: C$2.42
Upside: C$47
Expiration Date: 18th of November
Analysis of Split-off Trading Strategies
Split-Offs proved to be very lucrative
Analysis of US-Listed Chinese Going-Private Transactions
US-listed Chinese companies
Guide to Merger Arbitrage
Merger arbitrage has become a popular investment strategy used both by professional capital allocators and retail investors alike.
Atlas Technical Consultants (ATCXW) – Warrant Exchange – 25% Upside
Current Price: $0.99
Offer Price: $1.25
Upside: 25%
Expiration Date: 16th of November 2020
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-RT) – CVR – 159% Upside
Current Price: $3.48
Expected Payout: $9.00
Upside: 159%
Expiration Date: end of ’21
Hertz (HTZ) – Pending Delisting – Upside 50% (very risky)
Current Price: $1.50
Target Price: $0.75 (ultimatelly a $0.00)
Upside: 50%
Expected date: Q3 2020
Acorn International (ATV) – Going Private – 11% Upside
Current Price: $13.70
Offer Price: $15.22
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: TBD
Fitbit (FIT) – Merger Arbitrage – 12% Upside
Current Price: $6.56
Offer Price: $7.35
Upside: 12%
Expected Closing: 2020
Tiffany (TIF) – Merger Arbitrage – 16% Upside
Current Price: $116
Offer Price: $135
Upside: 18%
Expected Closing: Late 2020 / Early 2021
Delmarva Bancshares (DLMV) – Merger Arbitrage – 8.5% Upside
Current Price: $8.21
Offer Price: $8.90
Upside: 8.5%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Water Now (WTNW) – Liquidation – 40% Upside (very risky)
Current Price: $0.089
Liquidation Value: $0.125
Upside: 40%
Expiration date: early 2021
Gilat Satellite Networks (GILT) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: $7.20
Offer Price: $8.75
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: H2 2020
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) – Merger Arbitrage – 18% Upside
Current Price: $3.88
Offer Price: $4.58
Upside: 18%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Nomad Foods (NOMD) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $100 Upside
Current Price: $24.45
Offer Price: $23.00-$25.50
Upside: $100 (for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 9th of September
InnerWorkings (INWK) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: $2.78
Offer Price: $3.00
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Onevue Holdings (OVH.ASX) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: A$0.375
Offer Price: A$0.40
Upside: 6%
Expected Close: Late September 2020
Carroll Bancorp (CROL) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: $19.1
Offer Price: $21.63
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing Date: Q3 2020
Craft Brew Alliance (BREW) – Merger Arbitrage – 50% Upside
Current Price: $11.11
Offer Price: $16.50
Upside: 50%
Expected Closing Date: 2020
Bioceres Crop Solutions (BIOX) – Warrant Exchange – 21% Upside
Current Price: $0.50
Offer Price: $0.605
Upside: 21%
Expiration Date: 24th of August 2020
Dundee Corporation (DC-PB.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$139 Upside
Current Price: C$17.31
Offer Price: C$16.00-C$18.50
Upside: C$139 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 27th of August 2020
Brookfield Property REIT (BPYU) – Tender Offer – $100 Upside
Current Price: $10.96
Offer Price: $12.00
Upside: $102 (for odd-lot accounts)
Expiration Date: 12th of August
Brookfield Property Partners (BPY) – Tender Offer – 9% Upside
Current Price: $10.97
Offer Price: $12.00
Upside: 9%
Expiration Date: 28th of August
Guyana Goldfields (GUY.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside With Considerable IRR
Current Price: C$1.73
Offer Price: C$1.85
Upside: 7%
Expected Close: August 2020
Alt Resources (ARS.ASX) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside With Considerable IRR
Current Price: A$0.048
Offer Price: A$0.0505
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: August 2020
Renaissance Gold (REN.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: C$0.60
Offer Price: C$0.73
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Delphi Technologies (DLPH) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $11.92
Offer Price: $12.72
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: H2 2020
Forescout Technologies (FSCT) – Merger Arbitrage – 35% Upside
Current Price: $24.50
Offer Price: $33.00 (likely to be amended/terminated)
Upside: 35%
Expected Closing: TBD
58.com (WUBA) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $48
Offer Price: $55
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: TBD
TearLab (TEAR) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $0.0511
Offer Price: $0.0586
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: beginning of June, 2020
Arctic Glacier Income Fund (AGUNF) – Liquidation – 6% Upside
Current price: $0.0173 (mid)
Distribution: $0.0184
Upside: 6%
Estimated distribution date: 17th of June, 2020
Quintana Energy Services (QES) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: $1.11
Offer Price: $1.27
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: H2’20
Bitauto (BITA) – Merger Arbitrage – 50% Upside
Current price: $10.45
Consideration price: $16.00
Upside: 50%
Expiration date: TBD
IndigoVision (IND.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside With Considerable IRR
Current Price: £3.85
Offer Price: £4.05
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: 15th of June
Empire Bancorp (EMPK) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $9.50
Current Offer: $10.97
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 / Early Q3
Moss Bross (MOSB.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: £0.20
Offer Price: £0.22
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
VSB Bancorp (VSBN) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $18.48
Offer Price: $21.18
Upside: 15%
Estimated Closing Date: Early Q3
Pihlajalinna (PIHLIS) – Merger and Arbitrage – 27% Upside
Current price: €12.62
Offer price: €16.00 in cash
Upside: 27%
Expected closing: Q3 ’20
Correvio Pharma (CORV) – Merger Arbitrage – 30% Upside
Current Price: $0.32
Offer Price: $0.42
Upside: 30%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2020
Melrose Bank (MELR) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $22.70
Offer Price: $25.00
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q2
Tegna (TGNA) – Merger Arbitrage – 45% Upside
Current Price: $13.73
Offer Price: $20
Upside: 45%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
Kemet (KEM) – Merger Arbitrage – 30% Upside
Current Price: $21.14
Offer Price: $27.20
Upside: 30%
Expected Closing Date: H2 2020
Strad (SDY.TO) – Going Private – 20% Upside
Current Price: C$1.99
Offer Price: C$2.39
Upside: 20%
Expected Closing Date: Late April’20
Tallgrass Energy (TGE) – Merger Arbitrage – 42% Upside
Current Price: $15.82
Offer Price: $22.45/share
Upside: 42%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Maplewood International REIT (MWI-UN.V) – Asset Sale – 32% Upside
Current price: C$0.63
Distribution: C$0.83
Upside: 32%
Expected date: TBD
Neon Therapeutics (NTGN) – Merger Arbitrage – 31% Upside
Current Price: $1.76
Merger Consideration: $2.30
Upside: 31%
Closing: Q2 2020
Jumei International (JMEI) – Going Private – 5% Upside
Current Price: $19
Offer Price: $20
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Sakura SOGO REIT (3473 JP) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: ¥81000
Offer Price: ¥85000
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing Date: August 2020
Qumu (QUMU) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $1.80
Offer Price: $1.93
Upside: 7%
Closing date: mid 2020
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG.ASX) – Merger Arbitrage – 48% Upside
Current Price: A$0.135
Offer price: A$0.20
Upside: 48%
Expiration date: TBD
Condor Hospitality Trust (CDOR) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: $10.46
Offer Price: $11.10
Upside: 6%
Expected closing date: 16th of March
Yatra (YTRA) – Merger Arbitrage – 71% Upside
Current Price: $3.10
Merger Consideration: $5.31
Upside: 71%
Estimated closing: Q2 2020
Cineplex (CGX.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: C$31.70
Offer Price: C$34.00
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Torotel (TTLO) – Merger Arbitrage – 4.5% Upside
Current Price: $7.43
Offer Price: $7.77
Upside: 4.5%
Expected Closing: March 31st, 2020
West End Indiana Bank (WEIN) – Merger Arbitrage – 3% Upside
Current Price: $34.80
Merger Consideration: $34.91 – $36.81
Spread: 0%-6%
Expiration Date: expected Q1 ’20
RIB Software (RIB.DE) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: €26.66
Offer Price: €29.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2020
Ben Franklin Bank (BFFI) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: $9.92
Merger Consideration: $10.33 – $10.70
Upside: 4% – 8%
Expiration Date: early 2020
Great Canadian Gaming (GC.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$360 Upside
Current Price: C$30.24
Offer Price: C$39 – C$46
Upside: C$360-C$950 (odd lots)
Expiration Date: 25th of March 2020
MGM Resorts International (MGM) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $230 Upside
Current Price: $26.71
Offer Price: $29 – $34
Upside: 8.5% – 27%
Expiration Date: 12th of March 2020
AVIC International Holdings (HK:0161) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: HK$8.21
Merger Consideration: HK$9.00
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: 6th of March
Orca Exploration (ORC-B.V) – Expected Tender Offer – 5% Upside
Current price: C$6.46
Offer price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: by the 7th of Feb’20
Sirius Minerals (SXX.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: 5.2p
Offer Price: 5.5p
Upside: 6%
Closing Date: March 2020
Evans & Sutherland Computer Corporation (ESCC) – Merger Arbitrage – 4% Upside
Current Price: $1.14
Offer Price: $1.19
Upside: 4%
Expected Closing: Q1 2020
Achilion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) – Merger Arbitrage – 35% Upside With CVR
Current price: $6.13
Consideration: $6.30 in cash + $2 in CVR
Upside: 35% (with CVR)
Expected Closing Date: April’20
Intrinsyc Technologies (ITC) – Merger Arbitrage – 4% Upside
Current Price: C$1.74
Merger Consideration: C$1.81
Upside: 4%
Estimated Closing: January 2020
Posera (PAY.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current price: C$0.115 – C$0.12
Consideration price: C$0.123+
Upside: 2.5% – 7%+
Estimated closing date: Jan-Feb 2020
XBiotech (XBIT) – Tender Offer – $469 Upside
Current Price: $24.33
Offer: $26.52-$29.07
Upside: $217-$469 for odd-lots
Expiration date: 12th of February
Redde (REDD.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: £1.07
Merger Consideration: £1.13
Upside: 5%
Expiration Date: Q1 ’20
Dream Hard Asset Alternatives Trust (DRA-UN.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – 4% Upside
Current Price: C$7.91
Tender Price: C$8.25
Upside: 4% (C$33 for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 12 March 2020
Introducing Quick Ideas
Today I am introducing a new section on SSI: Quick Ideas.
Northview Apartment REIT (NVU-UN.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: C$32.97
Offer Price: C$36.25
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: by Q3 2020
Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads (April 2023)
This is a fresh review of ongoing merger arbitrage cases with wide spreads (at or above 9%).
Marchex (MCHX) – Tender Offer – 6% Upside
Current Price: $1.72
Offer Price: $1.96
Upside: 14%
Expiration Date: expected early October 2020