Yet Another Odd-Lot Tender Offer
Easy spread, with minimal cancellation or amendment risk.
Guest Pitch: LivePerson (LPSN)
Merger arbitrage: 18% upside (at $2.82/share)
Wide Spread on a Merger That Needs Just a Few More Votes
Every other condition is done. What remains is an administrative problem with a short timeline.
Buying the Buyer, Not the Target
The parent will trade at a ridiculously low valuation once it takes its cash cow subsidiary private at a steal of a price.
Royalty Shell at 50% Discount to Asset Value
Strategic review is ongoing, messy accounting hides the actual profitability.
SSI Weekly – August 24
A Bid Is on the Table yet the Discount Is Still Wide
Comparable transactions and peer marks point to the bid landing above the current price.
SSI Weekly – August 18
Wide Spread and a Possible Bidding War
The offer was already raised once.
Spread Widened Sharply after Recent Price Drop
Same buyout, second entry point.
SSI Weekly – August 10
SSI Weekly – August 3
Performance – July 2026
Potential Takeover with 40% Upside
The optionality on a sale looks close to free, in a business that has been quietly compounding.
A Wide Spread on a Deal That Looks Solid
While the offer is still non-binding, several factors suggest that the spread might be too wide.
SSI Weekly – July 27
Quick Pitch: Docebo (DCBO)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer: $140 upside (at $19.00)
SSI Weekly – July 21
Odd-Lot Tender Offer
Easy spread, with minimal cancellation or amendment risk.
SSI Weekly – July 13
SSI Weekly – Jul 7
Pending Buyout by a Controlling Shareholder
When one share class prices in a buyout and the other doesn’t.
Performance – June 2026
Market Overreaction
65% potential upside on a rebound.
SSI Weekly – Jun 29
A Fast and Clean Liquidation
The asset sales are already signed. 30%+ IRR.
Quick Pitch: Continental Aerospace Technologies (0232:HK)
Liquidation: 10%+ Upside (at HK$0.39)
SSI Weekly – Jun 23
A Tender Offer With an Odd-Lot Priority
Spread is quite wide, and the window closes in two weeks.
Quick Pitch: Aumann (AAG:DE)
Odd-lot Tender Offer: €190 Upside (at €14.60/share)
SSI Weekly – Jun 16
A Wide Spread on a Merger the Major Holders Already Blessed
This is a straightforward arb with a wide spread and closing expected in three months.
A Wide Spread on a Bid From Major Holders
This significantly improved offer might be difficult to refuse.
SSI Weekly – Jun 9
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
In this edition of the newsletter, I am sharing updates on investment pitches published on SSI. For more timely updates, you are always welcome to review the comments and join the discussions on the Special Situation Investments website.
In this newsletter, you will find:
New posts: THL:AX Updates: OPTU, DCC, OML,
Quick Pitch: Optimum Communications (OPTU)
Odd-lot tender offer: $140 upside (at $1.08/share)
Performance – May 2026
SSI Weekly – Jun 1
Yet Another Straightforward Merger Arb
With closing expected in 6 months, the IRR is compelling.
A Strategic Review With Earnings Inflecting
Review Near the Finish Line, 50%+ Upside in a Sale Scenario
Straightforward Merger Arb
20% upside with closing a couple of months out.
Quick Pitch: Zinnwald Lithium (ZNWD:L)
Merger Arbitrage: 18% Upside (at 8.75p/share)
SSI Weekly – May 25
A Cheap Bank at a 25% Discount to Book
Asset redeployment could close the gap to peers trading above book.
Cheap Optionality in a Busted Biopharma
Massive discount to net cash, reputable management, and activist in place.
SSI Weekly – May 18
Bidding War Brewing
Multiple bidders circling, a few offers are already on the table.
Quick Pitch: oOh!media Limited (OML:AX)
Bidding war: 30% Upside (at A$1.32-A$1.35)
SSI Weekly – May 13
Cash-Rich Operating Business at No Cost
Ridiculous Privatization Attempt: 40-70% Bump Expected
SSI Weekly – May 5
Performance – April 2026
SSI Weekly – April 27
A Big Haircut on the Interest Bill
Upcoming refinancing could lift FCF by 50%.
Quick Pitch: Blackline Safety (BLN:TO)
Free CVR: upside TBD (at $8.88)
SSI Weekly – April 20
A Mandatory Offer
20% potential upside.
Quick Pitch: Assertio Holdings (ASRT)
CVR: upside TBD (at $18.01)
A Clean “Free CVR” Setup
Closing is expected this quarter.
Quick Pitch: Enhabit (EHAB)
Higher offer: upside TBD (at $13.98)
SSI Weekly – April 14
Guest Pitch: Webjet Group (WJL:AX)
A bet on takeover talks resuming: 30%+ upside (at A$0.50)
SSI Weekly – April 7
Performance – March 2026
All in the Founders’ Hands
Approval is a formality, valuation is anchored by cash, spread is pretty wide.
SSI Weekly – March 30
Quick Pitch: Perfect (PERF)
Potential Buyout: 17.5% Upside (at $1.66)
Governance Shift Could Lead to a Takeover
The spread is wide, and the timeline is tight.
SSI Weekly – March 23
Privatization With a Potential Price Bump
The spread is wide, and the timeline is tight.
SSI Weekly – March 16
SSI Weekly – March 9
Activist Pressure on a Net-Net
Super-voting shares eliminated, board exposed. Net cash offers 40%+ upside from here.
Quick Pitch: Seer (SEER)
Activism: 35%+ Upside (at $1.83)
Performance – February 2026
Sale & Large Capital Return
Capital return alone could exceed the market cap.
SSI Weekly – March 2
Tender Offer & Liquidation
40%-80% Potential Upside
Quick Pitch: Tripadvisor (TRIP)
Activism / Strategic review: 70% upside (at $10.06)
SSI Weekly – February 23
Guest Pitch: All for One Group SE (A1OS.DE)
Odd-lot Tender Offer: €150 Upside
SSI Weekly – February 17
Quick Pitch: Enviri (NVRI)
Large Asset Sale: 60% upside (at $19.04)
SSI Weekly – February 9
Potential Buyout With 40% Upside
If there is no deal, the downside is probably limited to only 10% to 15%.
Guest Pitch: uniQure (QURE)
FDA approval: 160% Upside (at $26.65)
Performance – January 2026
Quick Pitch: Docebo (DCBO)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer: $80 upside (at $19.6)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer
Easy spread, with minimal cancellation or amendment risk.
SSI Weekly – February 2
Guest Pitch: Elme Communities (ELME)
Liquidation: 15% Upside (at $2.16)
A Clean and Low-Risk Liquidation Play
The wind-down should be completed this year.
SSI Weekly – January 27
Boring Business With an Intriguing Sale Catalyst
The market has largely ignored the recent developments, which makes the opportunity quite asymmetric.
SSI Weekly – January 19
Quick Pitch: ROK Resources (ROK:V)
Merger Arbitrage: 20%+ Upside (at C$0.20)
SSI Weekly – January 12
2025 Review
SSI Weekly – January 6
Performance – December 2025
SSI Weekly – December 17
Quick Pitch: Lithium South Development Corporation (LIS:V)
Merger Arbitrage: 19% Upside (at C$0.425)
Expected Takeover With 75% Upside
This bizarre saga is finally nearing a turning point, and this seems to be a good moment to step in.
SSI Weekly – December 11
Guest Pitch: NCC Group (NCC:L)
Strategic Review and Sale Process – 20% Upside (at 144p)
Quick Pitch: Emeren Group (SOL)
Merger Arbitrage (at $1.73)
Quick Pitch: Thunderbird Entertainment (TBRD:V)
Merger Arbitrage: 18% Upside (at C$1.55)
Quick Pitch: Venus Metals Corporation (VMC:AX)
Expected Higher Offer: Upside TBD (at A$0.195)
Performance – November 2025
SSI Weekly – November 24
Quick Pitch: Priority Technology (PRTH)
Management Buyout: 14%+ Upside (at $5.41)
SSI Weekly – November 17
Quick Pitch: AUB Group (AUB:AX)
Potential Buyout: 16% Upside (at A$38.73)
Taking It Private to Bring It Back to Life
The founder is leading a buyout to revive the struggling business.
SSI Weekly – November 10
Guest Pitch: Generation Bio (GBIO)
Strategic review: 50% Upside (at $5.11)
Quick Pitch: Sotherly Hotels (SOHOO)
Merger Arbitrage: 12-14% Upside
SSI Weekly – November 3
Performance – October 2025
Guest Pitch: Challenger Energy Group (CEG:L)
Merger Arbitrage (at 12.5p)
SSI Weekly – October 27
Quick Pitch: WonderFi Technologies (WNDR:TO)
Merger Arbitrage: 14% Upside (at C$0.315)
SSI Weekly – October 21
Share Class Arbitrage
After a successful first round in this share class arbitrage last year, it’s time for round two.
SSI Weekly – October 14
Guest Pitch: Falcon Oil & Gas (FO:V)
Merger Arbitrage: 30% Upside (at C$0.20)
Quick Pitch: Yext (YEXT)
Merger arbitrage: Upside TBD (at $8.40)
CEO Floats Lowball Offer and Invites Competing Bids
The company is now in play, and downside is protected.
SSI Weekly – October 6
Quick Pitch: FONAR (FONR)
Merger arbitrage (at $15.22)
Performance – September 2025
SSI tracking portfolio stayed flat in September 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
SSI Weekly – September 29
Quick Pitch: Chorus Aviation (CHR.TO)
Odd Lot Tender: C$45 upside (at C$22.55)
SSI Weekly – September 22
Quick Pitch: STAAR Surgical (STAA)
Expected Higher Offer (at $27.2)
SSI Weekly – September 12
Quick Pitch: Forian (FORA)
Expected Higher Offer (at $2.1)
SSI Weekly – September 5
Quick Pitch: TaskUs (TASK)
Expected Improved Offer
Quick Pitch: scPharmaceuticals (SCPH)
CVR: 5:1 risk/reward
Performance – August 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.8% in August 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
SSI Weekly – September 1
Quick Pitch: Apiam Animal Health (AHX:AX)
Merger Arbitrage (covered at A$0.795)
Quick Pitch: Plymouth Industrial REIT (PLYM)
Merger Arbitrage (at $21.30)
Guest Pitch: DallasNews (DALN)
Merger Arbitrage — 23% Upside (at $15)
Guest Pitch: Empresaria Group (EMR:L)
Merger Arbitrage: 48% Upside (at 42p)
SSI Weekly – August 24
Quick Pitch: Smart Share Global (EM)
Merger Arbitrage: 32% Upside (at $1.3)
SSI Weekly – August 14
SSI Weekly – August 10
SSI Weekly – August 3
Performance – July 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was up 0.6% in July 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Guest Pitch: ProAssurance (PRA)
Merger break: 35% potential return (at $23.8)
SSI Weekly – July 26
Quick Pitch: PMV Pharmaceuticals (PMVP)
Biopharma net-net — 40%+ Upside (at A$1.27)
SSI Weekly – July 19
Guest Pitch: Next Science (NXS.AX)
Large Capital Return (at A$0.14)
SSI Weekly – July 13
SSI Weekly – July 5
Quick Pitch: Banxa (BNXA:V)
Merger Arb: 23% Upside (at C$1.26)
Performance – June 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was up 3.5% in June 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Yet Another Asymmetric Bet With a Twist
Downside risk limited at 6-8%, potential upside is substantial.
SSI Weekly – June 30
Guest Pitch: Nanoco Group (NANO.L)
Potential Buyout: 50% upside (at 9.7p)
Guest Pitch: Real Estate Investors (RLE:L)
Liquidation: 35%-50% Upside (at £0.32/share)
SSI Weekly – June 20
Quick Pitch: Columbus Circle Capital Corp I (CCCM)
SPACs in the crypto space with a high chance of spiking upward
Quick Pitch: ProCap Acquisition (PCAPU)
SPACs in the crypto space with a high chance of spiking upward
Quick Pitch: M3-Brigade Acquisition V (MBAV)
SPACs in the crypto space with a high chance of spiking upward
Quick Pitch: Berto Acquisition (TACO)
SPACs in the crypto space with a high chance of spiking upward
SSI Weekly – June 16
Quick Pitch: Jupiter Mines (JMS:AX)
Potential Takeover: 60% Upside (at A$0.20/share)
SSI Weekly – June 8
Potential Takeover and/or Bidding War
30% potential upside, a few interested parties are already at the table
Guest Pitch: Webjet Group (WJL:AX)
Potential Takeover — 30% Upside (at A$0.90/share)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer With €200+ Upside
Tender expires mid-June, minimal risk involved
Quick Pitch: Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY:MC)
Odd-lot Tender Offer — €200+ Upside (€26/share)
Guest Pitch: Assura (AGR:L)
Expected higher offer — Upside TBD (at £0.495/share)
Performance – May 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.1% in May 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
New Special Sits: May 2025
In this newsletter I am sharing intriguing special situation opportunities that have caught my interest over the past month.
SSI Weekly – May 31
Asymmetric Bet with Multibagger Upside
Protected downside, a number of precedents worked out very well
SSI Weekly – May 24
Tender Offer With a Free Option
Trades below the tender price range, expiration date is set for mid-June
Quick Pitch: Air Canada (AC:TO)
Tender Offer (Odd-Lot) — Free Option
Potential Liquidation or a Sale
Strategic review is ongoing, potential upside could range between 30%-60%
Quick Pitch: Elevation Oncology (ELEV)
Potential Liquidation or Sale — 60% Upside (at $0.28/share)
Merger Arb Created by Market Overreaction
14%+ upside, closing expected in 1.5 months
Quick Pitch: Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX)
Merger Arbitrage (covered at A$6.48/share)
SSI Weekly – May 12
Merger Arbitrage + Bidding War
20%+ upside, exclusive talks underway, several other interested bidders
Guest Pitch: SmartPay Holdings (SMP:AX)
Potential Buyout (covered at A$0.92/share)
Guest Pitch: Star Holdings (STHO)
Liquidation — 50%+ Upside (at $6.45/share)
SSI Weekly – May 2
Quick Pitch: Kronos Bio (KRON)
CVR play (at $0.714)
Performance – April 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was down 3.8% in April 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
New Special Sits: April 2025
In this monthly newsletter edition, I am sharing intriguing special situation opportunities that have caught my interest over the past month.
SSI Weekly – April 26
Quick Pitch: Theratechnologies (THTX)
Potential Takeover — 75%+ Upside (at $2.57/share)
Merger Arb with 75% Spread
Multiple interested parties, full strategic review has been launched
SSI Weekly – April 19
Quick Pitch: Naturgy Energy Group (NTGY:MC)
Tender Offer With ‘Odd-Lot’ Type Priority — €500+ Upside
SSI Weekly – April 11
Quick Pitch: LENSAR (LNSR)
Buyout With a CVR: 23% Upside (at $13.63/share)
Update On My Favorite Setups
SSI Weekly – April 5
SSI Weekly – March 28
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Pitches: NIOX, NZM, SAGA Quick Pitch Updates: EPIX, ALLK, PAC:AX
Disclaimer: All content on Special Situation Investments
Performance – March 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was down 2.5% in March 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: NIOX Group (NIOX:L)
Merger Arb — 9% upside (at 74.2p/share)
New Special Sits: March 2025
In this monthly newsletter edition, I am sharing intriguing special situation opportunities that have caught my interest over the past month.
Guest Pitch: NZME Limited (NZM:AX)
SOTP value unlock — 35%+ upside (at A$1.1/share)
Guest Pitch: SAGA Pure (SAGA:OL)
Mandatory Bid/Privatization (at 1.31 NOK/share)
Strategic Review with Activists Involved
At least 40% upside conservative sum-of-the-parts valuation
SSI Weekly – March 23
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Pitches: LWAY, OCFT, CKPT Portfolio Idea Updates: KRON, LQDA, OCI:AS Quick Pitch Updates: WEX, WOW
Disclaimer: All
Quick Pitch: OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT)
Chinese Privatization — 22% Upside (at $6.5)
Merger Arbitrage with Free CVR
Trades below cash consideration
SSI Weekly – March 14
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Pitch: WEX Portfolio Idea Updates: SGRP, OCI:AS, CURN Quick Pitch Updates: FNA, SLRN, RNEW, WOW, PAC, BEST
SSI Weekly – March 9
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Pitches: ADIG:L, SLRN Portfolio Idea Updates: SAGE, SWTX, OCI:AS Quick Pitch Updates: PAC:AX, EM, FETM
Disclaimer: All
Quick Pitch: Acelyrin (SLRN)
Merger Arbitrage (covered at $2.66)
Quick Pitch: Abrdn Diversified Income And Growth (ADIG:L)
Liquidation (covered at £0.47)
Performance – February 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was up 4.2% in February 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
SSI Weekly – March 2
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Pithes: SWTX, NATH Portfolio Idea Updates: LQDA, BOOM Quick Pitch Updates: DK, ASLI, PAC, DXLG, LOGC
Disclaimer:
Quick Pitch: Nathan’s Famous (NATH)
Potential sale: 45% Upside (at $102)
SSI Weekly – February 21
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
Idea Updates: SGRP, SAGE, CURN, EMBRAC-B:ST, WOW
Disclaimer: All content on Special Situation Investments site and in the
SSI Weekly – February 16
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Pitches: SAGE, NKTR Idea Updates: BOOM, EPIX, DXLG, ACC:OL, FNCH, PAC:AX, RWI:L
Disclaimer: All content on Special
Guest Pitch: Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)
Cheap shot at a blockbuster drug (at $0.73)
SSI Weekly – February 8
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Pitches: FNA, ALLK, CPPTL Quick Pitch Updates: PGH:AX, EMBRAC, RNEW:L, FNCH, LTG:L
Disclaimer: All content on Special
Guest Pitch: Copper Property CTL Trust (CPPTL)
Liquidation – 30%+ Upside (at $12.8/share)
Liquidation of Real Estate Trust
30%+ upside, full portfolio is already on the market
Performance – January 2025
SSI tracking portfolio was up 0.8% in January 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
SSI Weekly – February 1
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
Portfolio Idea Updates: BHIL, MRL, BOOM, LQDA, CURN Quick Pitch Updates: WOW, DXLG, LUNA, EMBRAC, LTG, MON, RVNC
SSI Weekly – January 26
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
Portfolio Idea Updates: SGRP, CURN Quick Pitch Updates: EM, DXLG, RVNC, RWI:L, MON:V, RNEW:L, EMBRAC
Disclaimer: All content
SSI Weekly – January 19
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Quick Pitches: EM, RVNC Portfolio Idea Updates: SGRP, CURN Quick Pitch Updates: DK, WOW, HEPS, RNEW:L, MTTR, BELFB
Quick Pitch: Smart Share Global (EM)
Privatization: 20% Upside (at $1.00/share)
Opportunistic Privatization by Management
20% spread, founders & management are very motivated to close the transaction
SSI Weekly – January 13
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
This weekly newsletter intends to share the most interesting event-driven situations I’ve looked at over the week as well as other updates and highlights from SSI.
Here is what you will find in this week’s newsletter.
New Quick Pitches: DXLG, LUNA Idea Updates: CURN, DK, HEPS, RNEW:L
Disclaimer: All content on Special Situation Investments
Quick Pitch: Destination XL Group (DXLG)
Merger Arb / Higher Offer: 15%-40% Upside (at $2.62)
SSI Weekly – January 5
SSI WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
Happy New Year, everyone! I want to say a huge thanks to all subscribers for continuing to support SSI, sharing profitable investment opportunities, and actively participating in discussions – without you, SSI would not be as exciting as it is today. Thanks for subscribing and for being a part of the Special Situation Investments
2024 Review
Happy New Year everyone!
As we close the chapter on 2024, it’s time for the annual performance review.
But first things first – I want to say a huge thanks to all subscribers for continuing to support SSI, sharing profitable investment opportunities, and actively participating in discussions – without you, SSI would not be as
Performance – December 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was up 2.4% in December 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: D-Market Electronic Services & Trading (HEPS)
Mandatory buyout offer – 45% Upside
Quick Pitch: Aker Carbon Capture (ACC:OL)
Large Capital Return – 30%+ Upside (at NOK 5.93/share)
Quick Pitch: Direct Line (DLG:L)
Merger Arb – 9.5% Upside
Quick Pitch: Renewi (RWI:L)
Merger Arb – 9% Upside
Quick Pitch: National World (NWOR:L)
Merger Arb – 9.5% Upside
Performance – November 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was down 8.2% in November 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Guest Pitch: Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ)
Merger Arb: 15% Upside
Quick Pitch: Essa Pharma (EPIX)
Strategic review of a busted biopharma – 30% Upside
Quick Pitch: HilleVax (HLVX)
Strategic review (busted biopharma) – 80% Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: ParkerVision (PRKR)
Patent Litigation – Multibagger Upside
Performance – October 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was down 3.1% in October 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Guest Pitch: Learning Technologies Group (LTG:L)
Merger Arbitrage – 12% Upside
Guest Pitch: TI Fluid Systems (TIFS:L)
Merger Arbitrage – 13.5% Upside
Quick Pitch: TTEC Holdings (TTEC) – Why I’m Not Involved
Merger Arbitrage – 27% Upside
Guest Pitch: Embracer Group (EMBRAC-B:ST)
Spin-offs / HoldCo Discount Elimination – 25%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Fentura Financial (FETM)
Community bank merger – 9-10% Upside
SSI Weekly – October 4
Performance – September 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was down 0.7% in September 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Bel Fuse (BELFB)
Share Class Arb – 28% Upside
Guest Pitch: Gold Reserve (GDRZF)
Litigation: 130% Upside
Guest Pitch: Ecofin U.S. Renewables Infrastructure Trust (RNEW:L)
Liquidation: 80% Upside
Quick Pitch: Equals Group (EQLS:L)
Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Guest Pitch: WideOpenWest (WOW)
Expected higher offer – 50%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Frontera Energy (FEC:TO)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer – C$410 Upside
Guest Pitch: Pact Group (PGH:AX)
Expected privatization – 30% Upside
Performance – August 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.1% in August 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Guest Pitch: ARC Document Solutions (ARC) – 10% upside
Expected privatization – 10% upside
Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads (Aug 2024)
With another quarter in the books, I am refreshing SSI review of all merger arbs with wide spreads.
Guest Pitch: Finch Therapeutics Group (FNCH)
Litigation: Multibagger Upside
Performance – July 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.5% in July 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Ideas Elsewhere: R1 RCM (RCM)
Bidding war – 20%+ Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Designer Brands (DBI)
Post Forced-Selling Recovery – 30%+ upside
Guest Pitch: Grifols (GRFS)
Share Class Arb With A Catalyst – 21% Upside
Guest Pitch: Samsonite (1910:HK)
Uplisting to US: 90% Upside
Performance – June 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.1% in June 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Aerovate Therapeutics (AVTE)
Potential Reverse Merger/Liquidation – 50%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Sila Realty Trust (SILA)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer – $87 Upside
Carnarvon Energy (CVN:AX) – Strategic Review – 60% Upside
Current Price: A$0.19
Target Price: A$0.30+
Upside: 60%+
Expected Timeline: H2 2024
Quick Pitch: CI Financial (CIX:TO)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer – C$155 Upside
Guest Pitch: SAES Getters (SG:MI)
Potential Higher Offer – 10-20% Upside
Quick Pitch: Coveo Solutions (CVO:TO)
Tender offer with odd-lot provision
+21% upside (at the upper limit)
Quick Pitch: Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP)
MLP Buyout – 10%-20% Upside
Quick Pitch: Talen Energy (TLNE)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer – $770+ Upside
Performance – May 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was down -0.8% in May 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: ContextLogic (LOGC)
Reverse Merger & Large NOL Assets
Ideas Elsewhere: Strata Investment (SRT:AX)
Large asset sale
Guest Pitch: Base Resources (BSE:AX)
Merger Arbitrage – 11%-20% Upside
Quick Pitch: Monster Beverage (MNST)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer – $680 Upside (at the upper limit)
Quick Pitch: Secure Energy Services (SES:TO)
Tender offer with odd lot provision.
Guest Pitch: IMAX China (1970: HK)
Expected privatization: 30-50% upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Target Hospitality (TH)
Potential Higher Offer
Ideas Elsewhere: Enhabit (EHAB)
Activist Campaign
Quick Pitch: Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK)
Liquidation (actionable only today)
Quick Pitch: Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF)
Large Discount To NAV / Liquidation – 30%+ Upside
Guest Pitch: CVR Partners (UAN)
MLP Privatization / Tender Offer – 45% Upside
Quick Pitch: Task Group (TSK:AX)
Merger Arbitrage – 12% Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Sun Corporation (6736:T)
Large discount to NAV
Performance – April 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was down -1% in April 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Altreca (BCEL)
Contingent value rights – Multi-bagger Upside
Quick Pitch: Ashford (AINC)
Odd Lot Arbitrage – $1500-$2000 Upside (risky)
Quick Pitch: James River Group (JRVR)
Strategic review – 35%+ Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: MariaDB (MRDB)
Potential Bidding War
Performance – March 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was up 3.2% in March 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Ideas Elsewhere: Yangzijiang Financial Holding (YF8:SI)
Discount To NAV
Ideas Elsewhere: Samsonite International (1910:HK)
Potential Takeover
Quick Pitch: Alumina (AWC:AX)
Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Guest Pitch: Indiana Resources (IDA:AX)
Arbitration Award – 95% Upside
Performance – February 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was up 2.1% in February 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: IntelliCentrics Global Holdings (6819:HK)
Special dividend/liquidation – 12%+ Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Global Fashion Group (GFG:DE)
Turnaround – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: LianBio (LIAN)
Special Dividend + Potential Asset Sales
Quick Pitch: Vaso (VASO)
Uplisting: 33%-100%+ Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP)
Liquidation – 52% Upside
Quick Pitch: OCI N.V. (OCI:AS)
Large Asset Sale/Potential Capital Return – Upside TBD
Performance – January 2024
SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.7% in January 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Battalion Oil (BATL) – Why I’m Not Involved
Merger Arbitrage – 43% Spread (Too Risky)
Quick Pitch: Aclaris Therapeutics (ACRS)
Strategic review & potential activism – 42% Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Latitude Uranium (LUR:CN) / 92 Energy (92E:AX)
Three-way merger arbitrage
Ideas Elsewhere: Peugeot Invest Société (PEUG:PA)
Discount To NAV Mean Reversion
Ideas Elsewhere: Carnarvon Energy (CVN:AX)
Potential Asset/Company Sale
Ideas Elsewhere: Clasquin (ALCLA:PA)
Merger Arbitrage – 12% Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: AlloVir (ALVR)
Strategic Review
Quick Pitch: T&K Toka (4636:T)
Higher Offer / Bidding War – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: CPMC Holdings (0906:HK)
Potential Bidding War – Upside TBD
Performance – December 2023
SSI tracking portfolio was up 0.7% in December 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Guest Pitch: Midwest Energy Emissions (MEEC)
Patent Litigation
Quick Pitch: Perpetual (PPT:AX)
Potential Higher Offer / Bidding War
Ideas Elsewhere: Kinnate Biopharma (KNTE)
Potential Company Sale – 20% Upside
Quick Pitch: POINT Biopharma Global (PNT)
Potential Higher Offer – TBD Upside
Quick Pitch: iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK)
Chinese Privatization – 8.5% Upside
Performance – November 2023
SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.6% in November 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: BV Financial (BVFL)
Recent Demutualization – 30% Upside
Quick Pitch: Central Plains Bancshares (CPBI)
Recent Demutualization – 40% Upside
Quick Pitch: MRC Global (MRC)
Potential Company Sale – 30%+ Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Theseus Pharmaceuticals (THRX)
Strategic Review – 14%+ Upside
Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads (Nov 2023)
This is a fresh review of the current merger arbitrage opportunities with wide spreads.
Performance – October 2023
SSI tracking portfolio was down 0.8% in October 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Almacenes Exito (EXTO)
Merger Arbitrage + Higher Bid – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: First Trust MLP and Energy Income Fund (FEI)
ETF Conversion – 10% Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Webcentral (WCG:AX)
Large Asset Sale – 48% Upside
Quick Pitch: Pacific Current Group (PAC:AX)
Potential Buyout – 20% Questionable Upside
Quick Pitch: Genetron Holdings (GTH)
Chinese Privatisation – 13% Upside
Quick Pitch: Neighbourly Pharmacy (NBLY:TO)
Merger Arbitrage
Quick Pitch: Micron Solutions (MICR)
Reverse Stock Split (too risky)
Quick Pitch: Nordic Waterproofing (NWG:ST)
Potential Higher Offer – Upside TBD
Ideas Elsewhere: Brødrene Hartmann (HART:CO)
Expected Higher Offer
Ideas Elsewhere: AerSale Corporation (ASLE)
Potential Inflection Play
Performance – September 2023
SSI tracking portfolio was down 1.2% in September 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Pact Group (PGH:AX)
Potential Higher Offer – TBD Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Graphite Bio (GRPH)
Strategic Review and Potential Liquidation
Ideas Elsewhere: Otto Energy (OEL:AX)
Expected Company Sale
Ideas Elsewhere: CKX Lands (CKX)
Strategic Review
Ideas Elsewhere: Yellow Corporation (YELLQ)
Equity Recovery in Bankruptcy
Ideas Elsewhere: Logistec (LGT-B:TO)
Potential Takeover
Ideas Elsewhere: SharkNinja (SN)
Forced Sell-Off / Spin-Off
Quick Pitch: Costa Group Holdings (CGC:AX)
Merger Arbitrage – 20% Upside
Quick Pitch: Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI)
Expected Management Privatization – 37% Upside
Performance – August 2023
SSI tracking portfolio was down 0.8% in August 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Zynerba Pharmaceuticals (ZYNE)
Merger Arbitrage + CVR – Multibagger Upside
Quick Pitch: SoftwareONE (SWON:SW)
Potential Higher Offer – 19%-25% Upside
Quick Pitch: L’Occitane International (0973-HK)
Potential Privatization – 30% Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP)
Merger Arbitrage
Ideas Elsewhere: Winshear Gold (WINS-V)
Litigation
Quick Pitch: Kindred Group (KIND-DB.ST)
Potential Company Sale – 20%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Heritage-Crystal Clean (HCCI)
Heritage-Crystal Clean (HCCI) – Potential Higher Offer – TBD Upside
Quick Pitch: Ming Fai International (3828.HK)
China’s Travel Sector Recovery – 30%+ Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: Pacific Current (PAC:AX)
Potential Buyout – 10%+ Upside
Ideas Elsewhere: AVROBIO (AVRO)
Strategic Review/Potential Liquidation – 14%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: STM Group (STM.L)
Potential Buyout – 30%-40% Upside
Quick Pitch: Startek (SRT)
Potential Buyout – 20% Upside
Performance – July 2023
SSI tracking portfolio is up 4.7% in July 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Consolidated Communications Holdings (CNSL)
Merger Arbitrage – Upside TBD
Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads (July 2023)
With another quarter in the books, I am refreshing my review of merger arbs with wide spreads.
Quick Pitch: Carriage Services (CSV)
Potential Buyout – 36%-67% Upside
Quick Pitch: Sigilon Therapeutics (SGTX)
Merger Arbitrage With CVR
Ideas Elsewhere: Cyteir Therapeutics (CYT)
Liquidation
Ideas Elsewhere: Graphite Bio (GRPH)
Strategic Review
Performance – June 2023
SSI tracking portfolio is up 4.5% in June 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Peak Bancorp (IDFB)
Merger Arbitrage – 28% Upside
Quick Pitch: Astrotech (ASTC)
Merger Arbitrage, 20%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Enhabit (EHAB)
Activist Campaign/Potential Company Sale – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: LL Flooring Holdings (LL)
Activism/Potential Buyout – 31% Upside
Quick Pitch: Paratek Pharmaceuticals (PRTK)
Merger Arbitrage + CVR – 36% Upside
Quick Pitch: MediaAlpha (MAX)
Potential Inflection Play – Upside TBD
Performance – May 2023
SSI tracking portfolio is up 0.9% in May 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Dye & Durham (DND.TO)
Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$100 Upside
Quick Pitch: Aptinyx (APTX)
Liquidation – 25% Upside
Quick Pitch: VEON (VEON)
Activist Pressure – TBD Upside
Quick Pitch: Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI)
Merger Arbitrage + CVR – 20% Upside
Quick Pitch: Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR)
Expected Company Sale – Multibagger Upside
Quick Pitch: Holly Energy Partners (HEP)
MLP Buyout – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Green Plains Partners (GPP)
MLP Buyout – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: MEI Pharma (MEIP)
Potential liquidation – 29% Upside
Quick Pitch: US Masters Residential Property Fund (URF.AX)
Liquidation – 40%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Charah Solutions (CHRA)
Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Quick Pitch: Ebix Inc (EBIX)
Spin-Off – Upside TBD (very risky)
Performance – April 2023
SSI tracking portfolio is down -0.8% in April 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Westwood Holdings Group (WHG)
Potential Buyout/Activist Campaign – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Creative Realities (CREX)
Potential Takeover – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: SiriusPoint (SPNT)
Potential Takeover – 15%-20% Upside
Quick Pitch: ALJ Regional Holdings (ALJJ)
Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Quick Pitch: Guardian Capital Group (GCG-A.TO)
Asset Sale/Potential Large Capital Return – 28% Upside
Quick Pitch: Liminal BioSciences (LMNL)
Merger Arbitrage – 11% Upside
Quick Pitch: Delek US (DK)
Unlock of SOTP Value: 100% Upside
Quick Pitch: Liontown Resources (LTR.AX)
Potential Higher Offer – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Pardes Biosciences (PRDS)
Strategic Review – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Estia Health (EHE.AX)
Potential Takeover – 13%+ Upside
Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads (April 2023)
This is a fresh review of ongoing merger arbitrage cases.
Quick Pitch: dentalcorp Holdings (DNTL.TO)
Potential Buyout – 25% Upside
Quick Pitch: Embark Technology (EMBK)
Strategic Review – 50% Upside
Performance – March 2023
SSI tracking portfolio is down -3.9% in March 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Quince Therapeutics (QNCX)
Takeover Atempt – 17%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Chembio Diagnostics (CEMI)
Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Quick Pitch: First Horizon Corporation (FHN)
Merger Arbitrage – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Luther Burbank Corp (LBC)
Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Quick Pitch: Canaccord Genuity (CF.TO)
Management Takeover – 7% Upside
Quick Pitch: Ibersol (IBS.LS)
Expected Large Capital Return – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Magnet Forensics (MAGT.TO)
Expected Higher Offer – TBD Upside
Quick Pitch: Afya Limited (AFYA)
Potential Privatization – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Creative Realities (CREX)
Merger Arbitrage – 20% Spread
Performance – February 2023
SSI tracking portfolio is up by 1.6% in February 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitch: Millicom International (TIGO)
Potential Bidding War – Upside TBD
Quick Pitch: Regional Health Properties (RHE-PA)
Preferred Stock Exchange – 100% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For SIOX, CTLT, OTIC
SIOX – Liquidation – 21% upside
CTLT – Rumored Takeover – Upside TBD
OTIC – Liquidation – 18% Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitch For MGTA
MGTA – Strategic Review – Upside TBD
Quick Pitches For TBRD.V, FNCH, TYR.AX
TBRD.V – Strategic Review – 33% Upside
FNCH – Strategic Review – Upside TBD
TYR.AX – Expected Higher Bid – 15% Upside
Performance – January 2023
SSI tracking portfolio is up by 5% in January 2023. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitches For BATRA, CNCE, ELSE
BATRA – Split-Off/Potential Takeover – 41% Upside
CNCE – CVR – Multibagger Upside on CVR
ELSE – Merger Arbitrage – 27%+ Upside
Merger Arb With Wide Spreads (26th of Jan)
I am refreshing SSI review of all merger arbs with wide spreads.
Quick Pitches For OABI, ALBO, AMYT, CF.TO
OABI – Forced Selling After Spin-Off – 140% Upside
ALBO – CVR – 5x Upside
AMYT – CVR – Multibagger Upside
CF.TO – Expected Buyout Price Increase – 8% Upside
PhaseBio Pharmaceuticals (PHASQ) – Emergence From Bankruptcy – Mutibagger Upside
Current Price: $0.017
Target Price: $0.15+
Upside: multibagger
Expiration Date: H1 2023
Quick Pitches For SQZ.L, WWE, AAMC
SQZ.L – Activist Campaign – 40% Upside
WWE – Expected Buyout – Upside TBD
AAMC – Buyback Incentive – Upside TBD
Quick Pitches For RFP, CBIO, ISO
RFP – CVR – 250% Upside
CBIO – Liquidation – 22% Upside
ISO – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Performance – December 2022
SSI tracking portfolio is up by 5.2% in December and up 13.6% for the whole of 2022. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitches For SIOX, OIIM
SIOX – Liquidation – 25%+ Upside
OIIM – Chinese Privatisation – 10% Upside
Quick Pitches For SGA, DNTL.TO, CBIO
SGA – Potential Company Sale – 25%+ Upside
DNTL.TO – Potential Buyout – Upside TBD
CBIO – Liquidation – 29% Upside
Quick Pitches For BBXIA, SPNE, UNVR, AAV.TO
BBXIA – Price Pullback Post Tender Offer – 8% Upside
SPNE – Merger Arbitrage – 21% Upside
UNVR – Potential Buyout – 31% Upside
Quick Pitches For TRQ, TBRD.V, SCU
TRQ.TO – Merger Arbitrage and Appraisal Rights
TBRD.V – Activist Campaign/Potential Sale
SCU – Strategic Review/Potential Sale – Upside TBD
Performance – November 2022
SSI tracking portfolio is up by 3% in November. We are now up 8.1% YTD. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitches For GSMG, LMN.SW, SO.PA
GSMG – Chinese Take-Private
LMN.SW – Activist Campaign/Potential Sale
SO.PA – Expected Tender Price Increase
Quick Pitches For CCRD, OYST, WGO.AX and 3 Tenders
CCRD – Potential Buyout
OYST – Merger Arb & CVR
WGO.AX – Potential Bidding War
ACQ.TO – Tender Offer
Quick Pitches For AIMC, 0273.HK, IMO.TO
AIMC – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
0273.HK – Merger Arbitrage – 20%+ Upside
IMO.TO – Odd-Lot Tender Offer – $1100 Upside
Performance – October 2022
SSI tracking portfolio is up by 3.2% in October. We are now up 5% YTD. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitches For AKUS, LMST, NTO.AX, SCHL
AKUS – Merger Arbitrage & CVR – Upside TBD
LMST – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
NTO.AX – Potential Bidding War- Upside TBD
SCHL – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $260 Upside
Quick Pitches For GNX.AX, SIOX, SOT-UN, TBPH
GNX.AX – Merger Arbitrage – 25% Upside
SIOX – Strategic Review – 50% Discount To Net Cash
SOT-UN.TO – Strategic Review/Activist Campaign – Upside TBD
TBPH – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $75 Upside
SSI Weekly – Quick Pitches For PMCB, GFF
PMCB – Strategic Review/Activist Pressure – 37% Upside
GFF – Strategic review – Upside TBD
Quick Pitches For B, DXC, AGF-B
B – Merger Arbitrage – 90%+ Upside
DXC – Potential Takeover – 64% Upside
AGF-B.TO – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$75 Upside
Quick Pitches For ZVO, CANO and XX.V
ZVO – Liquidation – 200% Upside
CANO – Potential Takeover – 58% Upside
XX.V – Potential Takeover – 60%+ Upside
Performance – September 2022
SSI tracking portfolio is down by -8.5% in September. We are now up 1.7% YTD. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Quick Pitches For OIIM, KNBE, CCHWF, ATCO, LSF, MN
OIIM – Chinese Privatisation – 25% Upside
KNBE – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
LSF – Merger Arbitrage – 67% Upside
MN – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Quick Pitches For VNET, SGA, PRPL, and DR.TO
VNET – Merger Arbitrage – 36% Upside
SGA – Potential Takeover – 22% Upside
PRPL – Non-Binding Takeover Interest – 11% Upside
Merger Arbs With Wide Spreads (21st of Sep)
We are refreshing our review of all merger arbs with wide spreads. This is a continuation of the analysis from two months ago. Some of these have already been highlighted or posted on SSI. The spreads on average are not as wide as during the market rout at the beginning of July, but still, there are some potentially attractive opportunities.
Pitches For BOCH.L, TNA.V, DMS, ADT and VLNS
DMS – Privatization By Management – 20% Upside
BOCH.L – Merger Arbitrage – 15%+ Upside
VLNS – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
TNA.V – Merger Arbitrage – 6.5% Upside
Pitches For SWKH, APE and IMRA
APE – Share Class Arbitrage – 69% Upside
IMRA – Strategic Review – 58% Upside
SWKH – Potential Takeover – 24% Upside
Pitch For FBRX
FBRX – Multiple Activist Campaigns – 30% Upside
Performance – August 2022
SSI tracking portfolio rebounded nicely with a +9.3% gain in August. We are now up just over 11% YTD. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Pitches for ATCO, AGS, LOTZ, OZL.AX, IS, LMPX
AGS – Merger Arbitrage/Potential Higher Offer – 21%+ Upside
ATCO – Expected Higher Bid – 16% Upside
IS – Merger Arbitrage – 27% Upside
LOTZ – Merger Arbitrage – 40% Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for ALX, TTNP, IFM.AX
ALX – Activist Campaign – 50% Upside
TTNP – Reverse Merger/Activism – TBD Upside
IFM.AX – Merger Arbitrage/Bidding War – 9%+ Upside
Pitches for KINS, KLTR, ANGN, HSBI, PIXY
KINS – Potential Sale / Activist Pressure – 30%+ Upside
KLTR – Merger Arbitrage – 16%+ Upside
ANGN – Net-Net / Strategic Review – 34% Upside
HSBI – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Pitches for URF.AX, IMRA, RPID, CRNT, CTEK, VIVO
URF.AX – Liquidation – 100% Upside
IMRA – Strategic Review – 100% Upside
RPID – Merger Arbitrage – 9%+ Upside
RAP.AX – Merger Arbitrage – 27% Upside
Performance – July 2022
SSI tracking portfolio rebounded nicely with +11.5% gain in July. We are now slightly above break-even for the year. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Pitches for RDUS, MITO, CBIO, NXDT, WOW, RNWK
RDUS – Merger Arbitrage With CVR – 12x Upside
NXDT – REIT Conversion – 40%-50% Upside
CBIO – Expected Liquidation – 16% Upside
MITO – Going Private – 7%+ Upside
Pitches for RFP, RBCN, BHVN, FEC.TO, GSMG
RBCN – Cash Shell with a Tender Offer – 18x Upside
RFP – Merger Arbitrage with CVR – 32% Upside
FEC.TO – Odd Lot Tender Offer – 18% Upside
GSMG – Chinese Take-Private – 15% Upside
Pitches for HMTV, USWS, WOW, UEX.TO, TGR.AX, EVO.AX
EVO.AX – Activist Campaign/Company Sale – 100% Upside
USWS – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
WOW – Rumored Sale – TBD Upside
UEX.TO – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Pitches for TGR.AX, 0709.HK, ACQ.TO, EPZM
TGR.AX – Potential Higher Offer – TBD Upside
0709.HK – Take Private Atempt – TBD Upside
ACQ.TO – Tender Offer – TBD Upside
EPZM – Pharma CVR – 66% Upside
Performance – June 2022
Our tracking portfolio to a big dive of -13.3% during June’22 and is down 8.7% YTD. The monthly move was somewhat ahead of the 9.5% decline in the S&P. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
SSI Weekly – Pitches for RAP.AX, CCHWF, LAIXY, POEFF, ASTL, GDNSF
RAP.AX – Merger Arbitrage – 17% Upside
CCHWF – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
LAIXY – Chinese Take-Private – 11% Upside
POEFF – Merger Arbitrage + Spin-off – 6%+ Upside
SSI Weekly – Pitches for WEN, HMTV, HLG, FCIT, BIFF.L, PMD
WEN – Takeover Interest – 40% Upside
HMTV – Merger Arbitrage – 6%+ Upside
HLG – Chinese Take-Private – 11% Upside
FCIT – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Tufin Software Technologies (TUFN) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $11.73
Offer Price: $13.00
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: July 2022
Starcore International Mines (SAM.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 34% Upside
Current Price: C$0.25
Offer Price: C$0.35
Upside: 34%
Expiration Date: TBD
Oklo Resources (OKU.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: A$0.145
Offer Price: A$0.166
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: Q3 2022
SSI Weekly – Pitches for OMEX, PIRI.L, KTTA, ABIO, TYME, BKGM, BUKS, RADI
OMEX – Litigation – 10x-30x Upside
PIRI.L – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
KTTA – Activist Campaign – 88% Upside
ABIO – Activist Campaign – 35% Upside
Quick Pitch: Dolphin Capital Investors (DCI.L)
Dolphin Capital Investors (DCI.L) – Liquidation – 90%+ Upside
Performance – May 2022
Our tracking portfolio fell -4.1% during May’22 and is up +5.3% YTD. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Turtle Beach (HEAR) – Potential Company Sale – 40% Upside
Current Price: $17.87
Target Price: $25+
Upside: 40+%
Expiration Date: 4 months
Big River Gold (BRV.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: A$0.33
Offer Price: A$0.36
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: 1st of August’22
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $325 Upside
Current Price: $28.71
Offer Price: $28-$32
Upside: $325 (for odd-lot positions at the upper price limit)
Expiration Date: 27th of May
Imperial Oil Limited (IMO.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – Risk Free Upside
Current Price: C$61.88
Offer Price: C$62-C$78
Upside: C$12-C$1600 (for odd-lot positions)
Expiration Date: 10th of June
Performance – April 2022
Our tracking portfolio has returned +2.6% during Apr’22 and is +10% YTD. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Merger Arbitrage – Upside TBD
Current Price: $14.70
Offer Price: $15-$17 (with potential to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: Q2 2022
Ardent Leisure Group (ALG.AX) – Large Asset Sale/Capital Return – Upside TBD
Current Price: A$1.35
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: 2022-2023
Regional Health Properties (RHE-PA) – Preferred Stock Exchange – 100%+ Upside
Current Price: $4.3
Redemption Price: $10.0 (incremental increases through 2025)
Upside: 100%+
Expiration Date: 2025
River & Mercantile Group (RIV.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 21% Upside
Current Price: £2.64
Offer Price: £3.20 (£2.20 will be returned shortly)
Upside: 21% (or +125% for the stub)
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2022
BRP Inc. (DOO.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$800 Upside
Current Price: C$102.36
Offer Price: C$103 – C$120
Upside: C$800 (if priced in the middle of the range)
Expiration date: 6th of May 2022
Performance – March 2022
Our tracking portfolio has returned +2.5% during March 2022 and is up 597% since 2017. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ) – Expected Better Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: $30.00
Offer Price: $27.24 (increase expected)
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: TBD
Paramount Group (PGRE) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $10.43
Offer Price: $12.00
Upside: 15%
Expiration Date: Q2 2022
PFSweb (PFSW) – Large Capital Return/Company sale – Upside TBD
Current price: $11.64
Target price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: TBD
Link Administration (LNK.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 10%+ Upside
Current Price: A$4.91 (updated, see comment below)
Offer Price: A$5.40+ (updated, see comment below)
Upside: 10%+
Expected Closing: TBD
Performance – February 2022
Our tracking portfolio has returned -0.8% during February 2022 and is up 580% since 2017. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Ambac Financial Group (AMBC) – Litigation – Potential for 100%+
Current Price: $13.8
Target Price: TBD
Upside: Potential for 100%+
Expiration Date: Fall 2022
Codorus Valley Bancorp (CVLY) – Activist Pressure/Potential Company Sale – 18%+ Upside
Current Price: $22.00
Target Price: $26.05+
Upside: 18%+
Expiration Date: May 2022
LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) – Merger Arbitrage/Increased Offer – Upside 6%+
Current Price: $15.16
Offer Price: $16.00 (potentially increased)
Upside: 6%+
Expiration Date: TBD
Minds + Machines (MMX.L) – Liquidation – 20%+ Upside
Current Price: £0.086/share
Liquidation Value: £0.104+/share
Upside: 20%+
Expiration Date: 21st of Feb
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT (BRG) – Merger + Spin-Off – 12% Upside
Current Price: $26.63
Acquisition Price: $24.25 + $5.60 est. SpinCo NAV
Upside: 12%
Estimated Completion: Q2 2022
Performance – January 2022
Our tracking portfolio has returned 5.4% during January 2022 and is up 586% since 2017. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
2021 End of Year Review
The holidays have passed in a blink of an eye and we are back online – starting the new year with a full 2021 SSI review.
Performance – December 2021
Our tracking portfolio has lost 3.4% during December 2021 and is up 54% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Canaccord Genuity Group (CF.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$80 Upside
Current price: C$14.68
Offer price: C$15.50 – C$16.50
Upside: C$80 (for odd lots at the lower limit)
Expiration: 27th of January 2022
Amarillo Gold (AGC.V) – Merger Arbitrage and Spin-Off – 15% Upside
Current Price: C$0.41
Offer Price: C$0.4 + 1 spin-co at C$0.072/share
Upside: up to 15%
Expected Close: March 2022
Home Capital Group (HCG.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$200 Upside
Current Price: C$41.46
Offer Price: C$43.50 – C$48.50
Upside: C$200 – C$700 (upper and lower limit for odd lots)
Expiration Date: 21st December 2021
Yorkey Optical International (2788.HK) – Expected Better Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: HK$0.82
Offer Price: HK$0.88 (expected to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expected Close: TBD
Performance – November 2021
Our tracking portfolio lost 0.3% during November 2021 and is up 59% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Adva Optical Networking (ADV.F) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: €13.00
Offer Price: €15.87
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: Q2-Q3 2022
Playtech (PTEC.L) – Bidding War – Upside TBD
Current Price: £7.71
Offer Price: £6.80 (likely to get improved)
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
Laaco (LAACZ) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: $9133
Offer Price: $9840
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: December 2021
Soliton (SOLY) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $20.52
Offer Price: $22.60
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing Q4 2021
Arden Partners (ARDN.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 17% Upside
Current Price: £0.235
Offer Price: £0.27
Upside: 17%
Expected Closing: Q1 2022
China Zenix Auto (ZXAIY) – Going Private – 20% Upside
Current Price: $0.9
Target Price: $1.08
Upside: 20%
Expiration Date: Q1 2022
Home Bancorp Wisconsin (HWIS) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: $24.25
Offer Price: $26.47-$27.32
Upside: 9%-13%
Expected Closing: Q2 2022
Performance – October 2021
Our tracking portfolio returned 3.8% during October 2021 and 59.3% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Apollo Consolidated (AOP.AX) – Potential Bidding War – Upside TBD
Current Price: A$0.59
Offer Price: A$0.56 (potentially to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expiration: Q4 2021
SOL Global Investments (SOL.CN) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$65 Upside
Current Price: C$3.40
Offer Price: C$4.05 – C$4.25
Upside: C$65 (for odd lot accounts with no withholding taxes)
Expiration Date: 26th of November
iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK) – Merger Arbitrage – 8%+ Upside
Current Price: $6.95
Offer Price: $7.50
Upside: 8%+
Expected Closing: TBD
InvenTrust Properties (IVT) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $340 Upside
Current Price: $24.60
Offer Price: $25.00 – $28.00
Upside: $340 (for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 8th of November
Amerigo Resources (ARREF) – Dividend Reinstatement – 75%+ Upside
Current Price: $1.02
Target Price: $1.75+
Upside: 75%
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
Performance – September 2021
Our tracking portfolio returned 0.2% during September 2021 and 53.5% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Ferro Corporation (FOE) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: $20.35
Offer Price $22
Upside: 8%
Expected Close: Q1 2022
Tronox (TROX) – Merger Arbitrage – 16%+ Upside
Current Price: $23.24
Offer Price: $27.00
Upside: 16%+
Expiration Date: TBD
Aquila Resources (AQARF) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $0.0629
Offer Price: $0.0674
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Rifco (RFC.V) – Going Private – 5% Upside
Current Price: C$1.10
Offer Price: C$1.15
Upside: 5%
Expiration Date: TBD
Abitibi Royalties (RZZ.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 17% Upside
Current Price: C$25.65
Offer Price: C$29.88
Upside: 17%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
The ExOne Company (XONE) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: $23.48
Offer Price: $25.5
Upside: 9%
Expected Close: Q4 2021
Isabella Bank (ISBA) – Tender Offer And Potential M&A Target – Upside TBD
Current Price: $25.75
Offer Price: $23.00 – $27.00
Upside: $123 (for odd lots at upper limit)
Expiration Date: 13th of October 2021
Iress (IRE.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: A$13.99
Target Price: A$15.75
Upside: 13%
Expiration date: Sep 2021
Safeguard Scientific (SFE) – Tender Offer and Liquidation – 35% Upside
Current Price: $8.54
Offer Price: $7.90 – $9.00 and $11+ in liquidation case
Upside: $45 in tender for odd-lots or 35%+ in liquidation case
Expiration Date: October 1st, 2021
Royal Financial (RYFL) – Merger Arbitrage With Odd Lot – 7% Upside
Current Price: $18.62
Offer Price: $19.84
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing Date: Q1 2022
Performance – August 2021
Our tracking portfolio generated 3.9% return during August 2021 and 53% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
JOYY (YY) – Expected Privatization Offer – 45% Upside
Current Price: $59.6
Target Price: $85
Upside: 45%
Expiration Date: TBD
Marlin Business Services (MRLN) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: $22.11
Offer Price: $23.5
Upside: 6%
Expected Close: Q1 2022
Millennial Lithium (ML.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: C$3.32
Offer Price: C$3.6
Upside: 8%
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
IGE+XAO (IGE.PA) – Expected Better Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: €262
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration date: Q4 2021
FNBH Bancorp (FNHM) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: $4.02
Offer Price: $4.2
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
New Carolin Gold (LAD.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 20% Upside
Current Price: C$0.08
Offer Price: C$0.096
Upside: 20%
Expected Closing: September 2021
Performance – July 2021
Our tracking portfolio generated 1.3% return during July 2021 and 47% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
iCar Asia Limited (ICQ.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: A$0.45
Offer Price: A$0.55
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: TBD
Genesis Emerging Markets Fund (GSS.L) – Upcoming Tender Offer – 7% Upside
Current Price: £9.03
Offer Price: £9.62
Upside: 7%
Expiration Date: TBD
SOHO China (0410.HK) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: HK$4.10
Offer Price: HK$5.00
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: end 2021
Africa Opportunity Fund (AOF.L) – Liquidation – 70% Upside
Current Price: $0.60
Liquidation Value: $1.019
Upside: 70%
Expiration Date: mid-2022
Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: $15.72
Offer Price: $17.10
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: TBD
Cambria Automobiles (CAMB.L) – Expected Better Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: £0.75
Offer Price: £0.80 (higher offer is expected)
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q3 2021
Flagstar Bancorp (FBC) – Merger Arbitrage – 5%+ Upside
Current Price: $41.82
Offer Price: $44.05
Upside: 5%+
Expected Closing Date: Aug’21
Performance – June 2021
Our tracking portfolio generated 9.5% return during June 2021 and 46% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Eagle Bancorp Montana (EBMT) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $246 Upside
Current Price: $23.76
Offer Price: $24-$26.25
Upside: $246 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 22nd of June 2021
Fairfax India Holdings (FIH-U.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $189 Upside
Current Price: $13.09
Offer Price: $12.50-$15
Upside: $189 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 6th of August, 2021
Roxgold (ROXG.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: C$2.14
Offer Price: C$2.26
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: early July 2021
Banco Santander Mexico (BSMX) – Expected Higher Offer – Upside TBD
Current Price: $6.19
Offer Price: $6.21
Upside: TBD
Expected Closing: Q3 2021
Tarena International (TEDU) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: $3.68
Offer Price: $4.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: TBD
Carnival Corporation & Plc (CUK) – Share Class Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $26.01
Target Price: $30.15
Upside: 15%
Expiration Date: TBD
Global Yachting Group (GYG.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: £0.82
Offer Price: £0.925
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing: July, 2021
Performance – May 2021
Our tracking portfolio generated 0.8% return during the month and 33% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $300 Upside
Current Price: $60
Offer Price: $56 – $63
Upside: $300 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 14th of June, 2021
Wright Investors’ Service Holdings (IWSH) – Net-Net – 43% Upside
Current Price: $0.21
Target Price: $0.30
Upside: 43%
Expiration Date: TBD
Performance – April 2021
Our tracking portfolio generated 6% return during the month and 32% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Volkswagen (VWAPY) – Premium Mean Reversion – 18% Upside
Current Premium: 23%
Average Premium: 5%
Upside: 18%
Expiration Date: TBD
Corning Natural Gas Holding (CNIG) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: $23.52
Offer price: $24.75
Upside: 5%
Expected closing: late 2021/early 2022.
Alcanna (CLIQ.TO) – Odd-Lot Tender Offer – C$56 Upside
Current Price: C$7.73
Offer Price: C$7.55 – C$8.30
Upside: C$56 (for odd-lots at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 12th May
Bingo Industries (BIN.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: A$3.24
Offer Price: A$3.50
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: TBD
Educational Sources
Here you can find our recommended sources to expand your knowledge on special situation investing.
Above all, we’ve found that a very efficient way to learn is by analyzing past/already closed cases. SSI offers several hundreds of different special situations, where you can see the clear and concise picture of the whole set up, thought
Rights Offering
Rights offering is another way of raising equity while giving the priority to current shareholders. Each shareholder is given an opportunity to acquire a certain amount of shares (e.g. 0.2 new shares for each currently held share) and to incentivize the participation, new shares are offered at a discount to the market price. Sometimes an
Bankruptcy
When the company becomes insolvent and is no longer able to repay its debt, it can file for Chapter 11 protection and proceed with a bankruptcy process. Depending on a particular case, the outcome of the bankruptcy might vary, but the most important question remains – is there any value to be left for equity
Mandatory Offer
In certain jurisdictions (e.g. Honk Kong, Sweden), when a buyer acquires a certain level of ownership in the company (30% in both HK and Sweden), it must make a mandatory offer for all of the remaining shares of the company. The consideration also depends on the jurisdiction, but usually is either the last price or
Capital Structure Arbitrage
When a company has more than one tradeable share class (e.g. additional nonvoting common share class or preferred shares) it is usual for a certain discount to exist among the classes. There might be various reasons for that – a voting benefit of voting shares, liquidation preference of the preferred stock, or the difference in
NAV Discount Elimination
This type of special situation revolves around holding companies or funds (e.g. closed-end) that trade at a discount to its NAV, have their assets listed on an exchange (straightforward valuation), and are easy to hedge. In essence, the idea is that a certain corporate event may eliminate the company’s discount to net asset value, however,
Asset Sale
This special situation is closely related to the sum of the parts valuation of the company. There are many companies that trade at a significant discount to its SOTP and have their assets undervalued by the market. In such cases, an asset sale could become a catalyst for the share price increase as when the
Liquidation
As a special situation liquidation can come in many different forms and stages – sometimes it’s a company that is selling all of its assets and intends to distribute the proceeds ex liquidation costs to shareholders, sometimes the company only intends to sell the assets and a lot of uncertainty regarding the sale still remains.
Reverse Split
A reverse split is announced when a company intends to reduce the number of its outstanding shares. This can be done for various reasons, for example, to nominally raise the share price and keep it above $1.00/share, which is the level required to stay listed on NYSE and NASDAQ. Reverse splits include a split ratio
What is a SPAC?
SPAC is an acronym, short for “special purpose acquisition company”, which became extremely popular recently due to a record-breaking number of companies choosing to go public via SPAC.
A SPAC is a shell company with no operations, created in order to buy another company. So essentially, SPAC could be explained as a
Odd-Lot Tender Offer
When launching a tender offer the company also can opt to reduce its further administrative burden and cash out various minor shareholders. In this case, the tender offer may include an odd-lot provision. This provision means that holders of 99 shares will get accepted in the tender offer on a priority basis and won’t get
Tender Offer
A tender offer is announced when a company intends to buy a part of its own outstanding shares. This can be done for various reasons, such as capital return to shareholders or maybe management simply thinks that shares are very cheap at the moment. Usually, the consideration comes in cash, and to incentivize participation, the
Spin-Off
Spin-offs are kind of similar to the above-mentioned split-off transactions, only that here the company is divesting part of its business into a second public company. Consequently, the parent company also distributes its shares in the spin-off on a pro-rata basis to its current shareholders. Often a spin-off is done to separate potentially undervalued business,
China XD Plastics (CXDC) – Going Private – 13% Upside
Current Price: $1.06
Offer Price: $1.20
Upside: 13%
Expiration Date: 10th of May 2021
Steel Connect (STCN) – Going Private – Upside TBD
Current Price: $1.90
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration date: TBD
Viva Gold (VAU.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 38% Upside
Current Price: C$0.285
Offer Price: C$0.392
Upside: 38%
Expected Closing: early May 2021
China Customer Relations Center (CCRC) – Going Private – 6% Upside
Current Price:$6.15
Offer Price: $6.50
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: TBD
Enel America’s (ENIA) – Tender Offer – 4%+ Upside
Current Price: $8.40
Offer Price: $9.75
Upside: 4%+
Expiration date: 13th of April
Performance – March 2021
During March 2021 we’ve posted 11 new ideas.
Sunnyside Bancorp (SNNY) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside (Updated)
Current Price: $14.60
Offer Price: $15.55 (updated to $20)
Upside: 7% (updated to 10%)
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Discovery (DISCA) – Forced Sell-Off – 20% Upside
Current Price: $42.30
Target Price: $51
Upside: 20%
Expiration date: TBD
UrbanGold Minerals (UGM.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: C$0.28
Offer Price C$0.32
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: end of May’21
Newater Technology (NEWA) – Going Private – 16% Upside
Current Price: $3.16
Offer Price: $3.65
Upside: 16%
Expected Closing: TBD
CCUR Holdings (CCUR) – Reverse Stock Split – $270 Upside
Current Price: $2.77
Offer Price: $2.86
Upside: $270 (for 2999 shares)
Expiration Date: TBD
Idox (IDOX.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 3%+ Upside
Current Price: £0.73
Offer Price: £0.753+
Upside: 3%+
Expiration date: TBD
Landmark Bancorp (LDKB) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $19.70
Offer Price: $21.03
Upside 7%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
CRA International (CRAI) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $600 Upside
Current Price: $70
Offer Price: $66.25 – $76.00
Upside: $600 (odd-lot)
Expiration Date: 5th of April 2021
Zenabis (ZENA.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 25% Upside
Current Price: C$0.125
Offer Price: C$0.157
Upside: 25%
Expiration Date: TBD
Performance – February 2021
During February 2021 we’ve posted 11 new ideas
Great Canadian Gaming (GC.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: C$37.24
Offer Price: C$41.00+ (updated C$45.00)
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: TBD
Redflex Holdings (RDF.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: A$0.87
Offer Price: A$0.92
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: May 2021
QMX Gold (QMX.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: C$0.30
Offer Price: C$0.33
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: late March/early April 2021
Performance – January 2021
The year has started out great. In January 2021 we posted 12 new ideas
Sogou (SOGO) – Going Private Transaction – 9% Upside
Current Price: $8.26
Offer Price: $9.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: mid-2021
Zagg (ZAGG) – Merger Arbitrage & CVR – 7% Upside
Current Price: $4.17
Offer Price: $4.20 + $0.25 in CVR
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Enzo Biochem (ENZ) – Activism and Potential Sale – 84% Upside (Uncertain)
Current Price: $2.99
Target Price: $5.51 (uncertain)
Upside: 84%
Expiration Date: TBD
Ossen Innovation (OSN) – Going Private – 12% Upside
Current Price: $4.57
Offer Price: $5.10
Upside: 12%
Expected Closing: H1 2021
Orca Exploration (ORC-B.V) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$40 Upside
Current Price: C$6.10
Offer Price: C$6.50-C$7.50
Upside: C$40 (tendering 99 shares at the lower limit)
Expiration Date: 20th of January
2020 Performance Review
2020 was a very eventful year for the whole world and for the financial markets. However, as with every crisis, it provided numerous attractive investment opportunities to capitalize on.
SSI used these opportunities well and did great during 2020:
Our tracking portfolio returned +60% during the year and +323% since 2017. See full details
Performance – December 2020
During December 2020 we’ve posted 6 new ideas.
Prevail Therapeutics (PRVL) – Merger Arbitrage & CVR – 15% Upside
Current Price: $23.08
Offer Price: $22.50 + $4.00 in CVR
Upside: 15% (589% on CVR investment)
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Dundee Corporation (DC-A.TO) – Odd Lot Dutch Tender Offer – 14% Upside
Current Price: C$1.40
Offer Price: C$1.40 – C$1.60
Upside: 14% (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 11th of January 2021
Performance – November 2020
This month we’ve posted 12 new special situation ideas
Altice USA (ATUS) – Odd Lot Dutch Tender Offer – $174 Upside
Current Price: $34.24
Offer Price: $32.25 – $36.00
Upside: $174 (for 99 shares)
Expiration date: 21st December 2020
51job (JOBS) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $71.72
Offer Price: $79.05
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
MVB Financial (MVBF) – Modified Dutch Tender Offer – TBD Upside
Current Price: $20.34
Offer Price: $18.00 – $20.25
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: 18th of December
3P Learning (3PL.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: A$1.38
Offer Price: A$1.50
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
CIMC-TianDa Holdings (0445.HK) – Going Private – 8% Upside
Current Price: HK$0.246
Offer Price: HK$0.266
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: December 2020
Powerleader Science & Technology Group (8236.HK) – Going Private – 13% Upside
Current Price: HK$3.47
Offer Price: HK$3.92
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing: TBD
Consol Coal Resources (CCR) – Merger Arbitrage – 4% Upside
Current Price: $3.16
Offer Price: $3.28
Upside: 4%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Edgewater Bancorp (EGDW) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $37.55
Offer Price: $39.47-$43.22
Upside: 5%-15%
Expected Closing: Q2 2021
Driven Deliveries (DRVD) – Merger Arbitrage – 11% Upside
Current Price: $0.35
Offer Price: $0.39
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: Late 2020
Reliv International (RELV) – Reverse Split – $300 Upside
Current Price: $3.60
Offer Price: $3.75
Upside: $300 (for 1999 shares)
Expiration Date: 29th of November
Performance – October 2020
We’ve posted 11 ideas during October 2020
Atlas Technical Consultants (ATCXW) – Warrant Exchange – 25% Upside
Current Price: $0.99
Offer Price: $1.25
Upside: 25%
Expiration Date: 16th of November 2020
Wanda Sports Group (WSG) – Going Private – 11% Upside
Current Price: $2.25
Offer Price: $2.50
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: TBD
Water Now (WTNW) – Liquidation – 40% Upside (very risky)
Current Price: $0.089
Liquidation Value: $0.125
Upside: 40%
Expiration date: early 2021
GMP Capital (GMP.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$47 Upside
Current Price: C$1.94
Offer Price: C$2.42
Upside: C$47
Expiration Date: 18th of November
Gridsum Holdings (GSUM) – Going Private – 10% Upside
Current Price: $1.82
Offer Price: $2.00
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Torotel (TTLO) – Merger Arbitrage – 5.4% Upside
Current Price: $5.85
Offer Price: $6.17
Upside: 5.4% (high IRR)
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Performance – September 2020
During September we have posted 11 new cases.
Guide to Merger Arbitrage
Merger arbitrage has become a popular investment strategy used both by professional capital allocators and retail investors alike.
Acorn International (ATV) – Going Private – 11% Upside
Current Price: $13.70
Offer Price: $15.22
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: TBD
Performance – August 2020
We’ve posted 9 ideas during August 2020.
Riviera Resources (RVRA) – Liquidation – 27% Upside
Current Price: $1.73
Liquidation Value: $2.20
Upside: 27%
Expiration Date: TBD
Cellular Biomedicine Group (CBMG) – Going Private – 7% Upside
Current Price: $18.49
Offer Price: $19.75
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Nomad Foods (NOMD) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $100 Upside
Current Price: $24.45
Offer Price: $23.00-$25.50
Upside: $100 (for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 9th of September
Marchex (MCHX) – Tender Offer – 6% Upside
Current Price: $1.72
Offer Price: $1.96
Upside: 14%
Expiration Date: expected early October 2020
Renaissance Gold (REN.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: C$0.60
Offer Price: C$0.73
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Performance – July 2020
During July 2020 we’ve posted 18 new ideas.
Dundee Corporation (DC-PB.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$139 Upside
Current Price: C$17.31
Offer Price: C$16.00-C$18.50
Upside: C$139 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 27th of August 2020
Fuchs Petrolub (FPE.DE) – Discount Mean Reversion – 11% Upside
Current Discount: 20%
Average Discount: 9%
Upside: 11%
Expiration Date: TBD
Grifols (GRFS) – Discount Mean Reversion – 8% Upside
Current Discount: 36%
Average Discount: 28%
Upside: 8%
Expiration Date: TBD
BMW Group (BMW.DE) – Discount Mean Reversion – 7% Upside
Current Discount: 23%
Average Discount: 16%
Upside: 7%
Expiration Date: TBD
InnerWorkings (INWK) – Merger Arbitrage – 8% Upside
Current Price: $2.78
Offer Price: $3.00
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Alt Resources (ARS.ASX) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside With Considerable IRR
Current Price: A$0.048
Offer Price: A$0.0505
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: August 2020
Analysis of US-Listed Chinese Going-Private Transactions
US-listed Chinese companies
Central European Media Enterprises (CETV) – Merger Arbitrage – 18% Upside
Current Price: $3.88
Offer Price: $4.58
Upside: 18%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Delmarva Bancshares (DLMV) – Merger Arbitrage – 8.5% Upside
Current Price: $8.21
Offer Price: $8.90
Upside: 8.5%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Onevue Holdings (OVH.ASX) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: A$0.375
Offer Price: A$0.40
Upside: 6%
Expected Close: Late September 2020
Guyana Goldfields (GUY.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside With Considerable IRR
Current Price: C$1.73
Offer Price: C$1.85
Upside: 7%
Expected Close: August 2020
Performance – June 2020
During June 2020 we’ve posted 9 new ideas.
Hertz (HTZ) – Pending Delisting – Upside 50% (very risky)
Current Price: $1.50
Target Price: $0.75 (ultimatelly a $0.00)
Upside: 50%
Expected date: Q3 2020
Analysis of Split-off Trading Strategies
Split-Offs proved to be very lucrative
TMAC Resources (TMR.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: C$1.54
Offer Price: C$1.75
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Quintana Energy Services (QES) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: $1.11
Offer Price: $1.27
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: H2’20
Gilat Satellite Networks (GILT) – Merger Arbitrage – 22% Upside
Current Price: $7.20
Offer Price: $8.75
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: H2 2020
Tiffany (TIF) – Merger Arbitrage – 16% Upside
Current Price: $116
Offer Price: $135
Upside: 18%
Expected Closing: Late 2020 / Early 2021
58.com (WUBA) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $48
Offer Price: $55
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: TBD
Performance – May 2020
During May 2020 we’ve posted 9 new ideas.
Forescout Technologies (FSCT) – Merger Arbitrage – 35% Upside
Current Price: $24.50
Offer Price: $33.00 (likely to be amended/terminated)
Upside: 35%
Expected Closing: TBD
Arctic Glacier Income Fund (AGUNF) – Liquidation – 6% Upside
Current price: $0.0173 (mid)
Distribution: $0.0184
Upside: 6%
Estimated distribution date: 17th of June, 2020
Moss Bross (MOSB.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: £0.20
Offer Price: £0.22
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
TearLab (TEAR) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $0.0511
Offer Price: $0.0586
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: beginning of June, 2020
IndigoVision (IND.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside With Considerable IRR
Current Price: £3.85
Offer Price: £4.05
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: 15th of June
Delphi Technologies (DLPH) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $11.92
Offer Price: $12.72
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: H2 2020
Performance – April 2020
During April 2020 we’ve posted 10 new ideas.
VSB Bancorp (VSBN) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $18.48
Offer Price: $21.18
Upside: 15%
Estimated Closing Date: Early Q3
Northview Apartment REIT (NVU-UN.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: C$32.97
Offer Price: C$36.25
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: by Q3 2020
Melrose Bank (MELR) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $22.70
Offer Price: $25.00
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q2
Empire Bancorp (EMPK) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $9.50
Current Offer: $10.97
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 / Early Q3
Strad (SDY.TO) – Going Private – 20% Upside
Current Price: C$1.99
Offer Price: C$2.39
Upside: 20%
Expected Closing Date: Late April’20
Performance – March 2020
During March 2020 we’ve posted 22 new ideas.
Pihlajalinna (PIHLIS) – Merger and Arbitrage – 27% Upside
Current price: €12.62
Offer price: €16.00 in cash
Upside: 27%
Expected closing: Q3 ’20
Correvio Pharma (CORV) – Merger Arbitrage – 30% Upside
Current Price: $0.32
Offer Price: $0.42
Upside: 30%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2020
Kemet (KEM) – Merger Arbitrage – 30% Upside
Current Price: $21.14
Offer Price: $27.20
Upside: 30%
Expected Closing Date: H2 2020
Tegna (TGNA) – Merger Arbitrage – 45% Upside
Current Price: $13.73
Offer Price: $20
Upside: 45%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
Bitauto (BITA) – Merger Arbitrage – 50% Upside
Current price: $10.45
Consideration price: $16.00
Upside: 50%
Expiration date: TBD
Great Canadian Gaming (GC.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – C$360 Upside
Current Price: C$30.24
Offer Price: C$39 – C$46
Upside: C$360-C$950 (odd lots)
Expiration Date: 25th of March 2020
Carroll Bancorp (CROL) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: $19.1
Offer Price: $21.63
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing Date: Q3 2020
Sakura SOGO REIT (3473 JP) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: ¥81000
Offer Price: ¥85000
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing Date: August 2020
Jumei International (JMEI) – Going Private – 5% Upside
Current Price: $19
Offer Price: $20
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Torotel (TTLO) – Merger Arbitrage – 4.5% Upside
Current Price: $7.43
Offer Price: $7.77
Upside: 4.5%
Expected Closing: March 31st, 2020
RIB Software (RIB.DE) – Merger Arbitrage – 9% Upside
Current Price: €26.66
Offer Price: €29.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2020
Cineplex (CGX.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: C$31.70
Offer Price: C$34.00
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Condor Hospitality Trust (CDOR) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: $10.46
Offer Price: $11.10
Upside: 6%
Expected closing date: 16th of March
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG.ASX) – Merger Arbitrage – 48% Upside
Current Price: A$0.135
Offer price: A$0.20
Upside: 48%
Expiration date: TBD
Performance – February 2020
During February 2020 we’ve posted 9 new ideas.
MGM Resorts International (MGM) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – $230 Upside
Current Price: $26.71
Offer Price: $29 – $34
Upside: 8.5% – 27%
Expiration Date: 12th of March 2020
Qumu (QUMU) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current Price: $1.80
Offer Price: $1.93
Upside: 7%
Closing date: mid 2020
Sirius Minerals (SXX.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: 5.2p
Offer Price: 5.5p
Upside: 6%
Closing Date: March 2020
Evans & Sutherland Computer Corporation (ESCC) – Merger Arbitrage – 4% Upside
Current Price: $1.14
Offer Price: $1.19
Upside: 4%
Expected Closing: Q1 2020
Dream Hard Asset Alternatives Trust (DRA-UN.TO) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – 4% Upside
Current Price: C$7.91
Tender Price: C$8.25
Upside: 4% (C$33 for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 12 March 2020
Performance – January 2020
During January 2020 we’ve posted 17 new ideas.
Orca Exploration (ORC-B.V) – Expected Tender Offer – 5% Upside
Current price: C$6.46
Offer price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: by the 7th of Feb’20
Posera (PAY.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 7% Upside
Current price: C$0.115 – C$0.12
Consideration price: C$0.123+
Upside: 2.5% – 7%+
Estimated closing date: Jan-Feb 2020
Achilion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) – Merger Arbitrage – 35% Upside With CVR
Current price: $6.13
Consideration: $6.30 in cash + $2 in CVR
Upside: 35% (with CVR)
Expected Closing Date: April’20
Neon Therapeutics (NTGN) – Merger Arbitrage – 31% Upside
Current Price: $1.76
Merger Consideration: $2.30
Upside: 31%
Closing: Q2 2020
Maplewood International REIT (MWI-UN.V) – Asset Sale – 32% Upside
Current price: C$0.63
Distribution: C$0.83
Upside: 32%
Expected date: TBD
XBiotech (XBIT) – Tender Offer – $469 Upside
Current Price: $24.33
Offer: $26.52-$29.07
Upside: $217-$469 for odd-lots
Expiration date: 12th of February
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-RT) – CVR – 159% Upside
Current Price: $3.48
Expected Payout: $9.00
Upside: 159%
Expiration Date: end of ’21
Fitbit (FIT) – Merger Arbitrage – 12% Upside
Current Price: $6.56
Offer Price: $7.35
Upside: 12%
Expected Closing: 2020
West End Indiana Bank (WEIN) – Merger Arbitrage – 3% Upside
Current Price: $34.80
Merger Consideration: $34.91 – $36.81
Spread: 0%-6%
Expiration Date: expected Q1 ’20
Ben Franklin Bank (BFFI) – Merger Arbitrage – 6% Upside
Current Price: $9.92
Merger Consideration: $10.33 – $10.70
Upside: 4% – 8%
Expiration Date: early 2020
Yatra (YTRA) – Merger Arbitrage – 71% Upside
Current Price: $3.10
Merger Consideration: $5.31
Upside: 71%
Estimated closing: Q2 2020
Intrinsyc Technologies (ITC) – Merger Arbitrage – 4% Upside
Current Price: C$1.74
Merger Consideration: C$1.81
Upside: 4%
Estimated Closing: January 2020
AVIC International Holdings (HK:0161) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: HK$8.21
Merger Consideration: HK$9.00
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: 6th of March
Redde (REDD.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside
Current Price: £1.07
Merger Consideration: £1.13
Upside: 5%
Expiration Date: Q1 ’20
Updates – December 2019
Aimia (AIM.TO) – Tender Offer – C$40 for Odd Lots
Current price: C$3.87
Tender Price: C$4.25
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: 30th Dec 2019