Tufin Software Technologies (TUFN) – Merger Arbitrage – 10% Upside
Current Price: $11.73
Offer Price: $13.00
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: July 2022
Current Price: $11.73
Offer Price: $13.00
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: July 2022
Current Price: $14.70
Offer Price: $15-$17 (with potential to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: Q2 2022
Current Price: £2.64
Offer Price: £3.20 (£2.20 will be returned shortly)
Upside: 21% (or +125% for the stub)
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2022
Current Price: C$61.88
Offer Price: C$62-C$78
Upside: C$12-C$1600 (for odd-lot positions)
Expiration Date: 10th of June
Current Price: $24.25
Offer Price: $26.47-$27.32
Upside: 9%-13%
Expected Closing: Q2 2022
Current Price: $28.71
Offer Price: $28-$32
Upside: $325 (for odd-lot positions at the upper price limit)
Expiration Date: 27th of May
Current Price: C$102.36
Offer Price: C$103 – C$120
Upside: C$800 (if priced in the middle of the range)
Expiration date: 6th of May 2022
Current Price: C$0.41
Offer Price: C$0.4 + 1 spin-co at C$0.072/share
Upside: up to 15%
Expected Close: March 2022
Current Price: $15.16
Offer Price: $16.00 (potentially increased)
Upside: 6%+
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $10.43
Offer Price: $12.00
Upside: 15%
Expiration Date: Q2 2022
Current Price: A$4.91 (updated, see comment below)
Offer Price: A$5.40+ (updated, see comment below)
Upside: 10%+
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: €262
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration date: Q4 2021
Current Price: £0.086/share
Liquidation Value: £0.104+/share
Upside: 20%+
Expiration Date: 21st of Feb
Current price: C$14.68
Offer price: C$15.50 – C$16.50
Upside: C$80 (for odd lots at the lower limit)
Expiration: 27th of January 2022
Current Price: $1.02
Target Price: $1.75+
Upside: 75%
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
Current Price: $15.72
Offer Price: $17.10
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $0.9
Target Price: $1.08
Upside: 20%
Expiration Date: Q1 2022
Current Price: €13.00
Offer Price: €15.87
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: Q2-Q3 2022
Current Price: HK$0.82
Offer Price: HK$0.88 (expected to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expected Close: TBD
Current Price: $22.11
Offer Price: $23.5
Upside: 6%
Expected Close: Q1 2022
Current Price: $0.60
Liquidation Value: $1.019
Upside: 70%
Expiration Date: mid-2022
Current Price: C$41.46
Offer Price: C$43.50 – C$48.50
Upside: C$200 – C$700 (upper and lower limit for odd lots)
Expiration Date: 21st December 2021
Current Price: $20.52
Offer Price: $22.60
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing Q4 2021
Current Price: $9133
Offer Price: $9840
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: December 2021
Current Price: $4.02
Offer Price: $4.2
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Current Price: £0.235
Offer Price: £0.27
Upside: 17%
Expected Closing: Q1 2022
Current Price: $59.6
Target Price: $85
Upside: 45%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $1.90
Target Price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration date: TBD
Current Price: C$3.40
Offer Price: C$4.05 – C$4.25
Upside: C$65 (for odd lot accounts with no withholding taxes)
Expiration Date: 26th of November
Current Price: $6.95
Offer Price: $7.50
Upside: 8%+
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: A$0.59
Offer Price: A$0.56 (potentially to be increased)
Upside: TBD
Expiration: Q4 2021
Current Price: $23.24
Offer Price: $27.00
Upside: 16%+
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $14.60
Offer Price: $15.55 (updated to $20)
Upside: 7% (updated to 10%)
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Current Price: $23.48
Offer Price: $25.5
Upside: 9%
Expected Close: Q4 2021
Current Price: £0.82
Offer Price: £0.925
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing: July, 2021
Current Price: $23.52
Offer price: $24.75
Upside: 5%
Expected closing: late 2021/early 2022.
Current Price: C$25.65
Offer Price: C$29.88
Upside: 17%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Current Price: C$1.10
Offer Price: C$1.15
Upside: 5%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $20.35
Offer Price $22
Upside: 8%
Expected Close: Q1 2022
Current Price: $37.55
Offer Price: $39.47-$43.22
Upside: 5%-15%
Expected Closing: Q2 2021
Current Price: £9.03
Offer Price: £9.62
Upside: 7%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $2.99
Target Price: $5.51 (uncertain)
Upside: 84%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $25.75
Offer Price: $23.00 – $27.00
Upside: $123 (for odd lots at upper limit)
Expiration Date: 13th of October 2021
Current Price: A$0.45
Offer Price: A$0.55
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $8.54
Offer Price: $7.90 – $9.00 and $11+ in liquidation case
Upside: $45 in tender for odd-lots or 35%+ in liquidation case
Expiration Date: October 1st, 2021
Current Price: $18.62
Offer Price: $19.84
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing Date: Q1 2022
Current Price: $24.60
Offer Price: $25.00 – $28.00
Upside: $340 (for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 8th of November
Current Price: $0.0629
Offer Price: $0.0674
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q4 2021
Current Price: C$0.08
Offer Price: C$0.096
Upside: 20%
Expected Closing: September 2021
Our tracking portfolio returned 0.2% during September 2021 and 53.5% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Current Price: HK$4.10
Offer Price: HK$5.00
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: end 2021
Current Price: $26.01
Target Price: $30.15
Upside: 15%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: £0.75
Offer Price: £0.80 (higher offer is expected)
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q3 2021
Current Price: C$3.32
Offer Price: C$3.6
Upside: 8%
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
Current Price: $6.19
Offer Price: $6.21
Upside: TBD
Expected Closing: Q3 2021
Current Price: A$13.99
Target Price: A$15.75
Upside: 13%
Expiration date: Sep 2021
Current Price: $4.57
Offer Price: $5.10
Upside: 12%
Expected Closing: H1 2021
Current Price: $41.82
Offer Price: $44.05
Upside: 5%+
Expected Closing Date: Aug’21
Current Price: $8.26
Offer Price: $9.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: mid-2021
Current Price: $13.09
Offer Price: $12.50-$15
Upside: $189 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 6th of August, 2021
Current Price: $3.16
Offer Price: $3.65
Upside: 16%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $0.21
Target Price: $0.30
Upside: 43%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: C$2.14
Offer Price: C$2.26
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: early July 2021
Current Price: $23.76
Offer Price: $24-$26.25
Upside: $246 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 22nd of June 2021
Current Price: $3.68
Offer Price: $4.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price:$6.15
Offer Price: $6.50
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $71.72
Offer Price: $79.05
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
Current Price: $19.70
Offer Price: $21.03
Upside 7%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Current Price: C$37.24
Offer Price: C$41.00+ (updated C$45.00)
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $60
Offer Price: $56 – $63
Upside: $300 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 14th of June, 2021
Current Price: $42.30
Target Price: $51
Upside: 20%
Expiration date: TBD
Current Price: C$0.28
Offer Price C$0.32
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: end of May’21
Current Price: A$0.87
Offer Price: A$0.92
Upside: 6%
Expected Closing: May 2021
Current Price: $1.06
Offer Price: $1.20
Upside: 13%
Expiration Date: 10th of May 2021
Current Price: C$0.285
Offer Price: C$0.392
Upside: 38%
Expected Closing: early May 2021
Current Price: C$7.73
Offer Price: C$7.55 – C$8.30
Upside: C$56 (for odd-lots at the upper limit)
Expiration date: 12th May
Current Price: $8.40
Offer Price: $9.75
Upside: 4%+
Expiration date: 13th of April
Current Price: C$0.125
Offer Price: C$0.157
Upside: 25%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: A$3.24
Offer Price: A$3.50
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $2.77
Offer Price: $2.86
Upside: $270 (for 2999 shares)
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: $70
Offer Price: $66.25 – $76.00
Upside: $600 (odd-lot)
Expiration Date: 5th of April 2021
Current Price: C$0.30
Offer Price: C$0.33
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing: late March/early April 2021
Current Price: £0.73
Offer Price: £0.753+
Upside: 3%+
Expiration date: TBD
Current Price: $1.82
Offer Price: $2.00
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Our tracking portfolio generated 6% return during the month and 32% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Current Price: $4.17
Offer Price: $4.20 + $0.25 in CVR
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
During February 2021 we’ve posted 11 new ideas
Current Price: A$1.38
Offer Price: A$1.50
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
Current Price: $18.49
Offer Price: $19.75
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Current Price: $2.25
Offer Price: $2.50
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $23.08
Offer Price: $22.50 + $4.00 in CVR
Upside: 15% (589% on CVR investment)
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Current Price: HK$0.246
Offer Price: HK$0.266
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: December 2020
Current Price: C$6.10
Offer Price: C$6.50-C$7.50
Upside: C$40 (tendering 99 shares at the lower limit)
Expiration Date: 20th of January
The year has started out great. In January 2021 we posted 12 new ideas
Current Price: C$1.40
Offer Price: C$1.40 – C$1.60
Upside: 14% (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 11th of January 2021
Current Price: $3.16
Offer Price: $3.28
Upside: 4%
Expected Closing: Q1 2021
Current Price: $20.34
Offer Price: $18.00 – $20.25
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: 18th of December
Current Price: HK$3.47
Offer Price: HK$3.92
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $1.73
Liquidation Value: $2.20
Upside: 27%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Discount: 23%
Average Discount: 16%
Upside: 7%
Expiration Date: TBD
During December 2020 we’ve posted 6 new ideas.
Current Price: $34.24
Offer Price: $32.25 – $36.00
Upside: $174 (for 99 shares)
Expiration date: 21st December 2020
Current Discount: 36%
Average Discount: 28%
Upside: 8%
Expiration Date: TBD
Current Price: C$1.54
Offer Price: C$1.75
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
Current Price: $0.35
Offer Price: $0.39
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: Late 2020
Current Price: C$1.94
Offer Price: C$2.42
Upside: C$47
Expiration Date: 18th of November
This month we’ve posted 12 new special situation ideas
Split-Offs proved to be very lucrative
US-listed Chinese companies
Merger arbitrage has become a popular investment strategy used both by professional capital allocators and retail investors alike.
Current Price: $0.99
Offer Price: $1.25
Upside: 25%
Expiration Date: 16th of November 2020
Current Price: $3.48
Expected Payout: $9.00
Upside: 159%
Expiration Date: end of ’21
Current Price: $1.50
Target Price: $0.75 (ultimatelly a $0.00)
Upside: 50%
Expected date: Q3 2020
Current Price: $13.70
Offer Price: $15.22
Upside: 11%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $6.56
Offer Price: $7.35
Upside: 12%
Expected Closing: 2020
Current Price: $116
Offer Price: $135
Upside: 18%
Expected Closing: Late 2020 / Early 2021
Current Price: $8.21
Offer Price: $8.90
Upside: 8.5%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Current Price: $0.089
Liquidation Value: $0.125
Upside: 40%
Expiration date: early 2021
We’ve posted 11 ideas during October 2020
Current Price: $7.20
Offer Price: $8.75
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: H2 2020
Current Price: $3.88
Offer Price: $4.58
Upside: 18%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
During September we have posted 11 new cases.
Current Price: $24.45
Offer Price: $23.00-$25.50
Upside: $100 (for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 9th of September
Current Price: $2.78
Offer Price: $3.00
Upside: 8%
Expected Closing: Q4 2020
Current Price: A$0.375
Offer Price: A$0.40
Upside: 6%
Expected Close: Late September 2020
Current Price: $19.1
Offer Price: $21.63
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing Date: Q3 2020
Current Price: C$17.31
Offer Price: C$16.00-C$18.50
Upside: C$139 (if priced at the upper limit)
Expiration Date: 27th of August 2020
Current Price: C$1.73
Offer Price: C$1.85
Upside: 7%
Expected Close: August 2020
Current Price: A$0.048
Offer Price: A$0.0505
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: August 2020
Current Price: C$0.60
Offer Price: C$0.73
Upside: 22%
Expected Closing: Q3 2020
We’ve posted 9 ideas during August 2020.
Current Price: $11.92
Offer Price: $12.72
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: H2 2020
Current Price: $24.50
Offer Price: $33.00 (likely to be amended/terminated)
Upside: 35%
Expected Closing: TBD
During July 2020 we’ve posted 18 new ideas.
Current Price: $48
Offer Price: $55
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: TBD
Current Price: $0.0511
Offer Price: $0.0586
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: beginning of June, 2020
Current price: $0.0173 (mid)
Distribution: $0.0184
Upside: 6%
Estimated distribution date: 17th of June, 2020
Current Price: $1.11
Offer Price: $1.27
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: H2’20
Current price: $10.45
Consideration price: $16.00
Upside: 50%
Expiration date: TBD
Current Price: £3.85
Offer Price: £4.05
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: 15th of June
Current Price: $9.50
Current Offer: $10.97
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 / Early Q3
Current Price: £0.20
Offer Price: £0.22
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Current Price: $18.48
Offer Price: $21.18
Upside: 15%
Estimated Closing Date: Early Q3
Current price: €12.62
Offer price: €16.00 in cash
Upside: 27%
Expected closing: Q3 ’20
Current Price: $0.32
Offer Price: $0.42
Upside: 30%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2020
Current Price: $22.70
Offer Price: $25.00
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: Q2
During May 2020 we’ve posted 9 new ideas.
Current Price: $13.73
Offer Price: $20
Upside: 45%
Expected Closing Date: TBD
Current Price: $21.14
Offer Price: $27.20
Upside: 30%
Expected Closing Date: H2 2020
During April 2020 we’ve posted 10 new ideas.
Current Price: C$1.99
Offer Price: C$2.39
Upside: 20%
Expected Closing Date: Late April’20
Current price: C$0.63
Distribution: C$0.83
Upside: 32%
Expected date: TBD
Current Price: $1.76
Merger Consideration: $2.30
Upside: 31%
Closing: Q2 2020
Current Price: $19
Offer Price: $20
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Current Price: ¥81000
Offer Price: ¥85000
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing Date: August 2020
Current Price: $1.80
Offer Price: $1.93
Upside: 7%
Closing date: mid 2020
Current Price: A$0.135
Offer price: A$0.20
Upside: 48%
Expiration date: TBD
Current Price: $10.46
Offer Price: $11.10
Upside: 6%
Expected closing date: 16th of March
Current Price: $3.10
Merger Consideration: $5.31
Upside: 71%
Estimated closing: Q2 2020
Current Price: C$31.70
Offer Price: C$34.00
Upside: 7%
Expected Closing: Q2 2020
Current Price: $7.43
Offer Price: $7.77
Upside: 4.5%
Expected Closing: March 31st, 2020
Current Price: $34.80
Merger Consideration: $34.91 – $36.81
Spread: 0%-6%
Expiration Date: expected Q1 ’20
Current Price: €26.66
Offer Price: €29.00
Upside: 9%
Expected Closing Date: Q2 2020
Current Price: $9.92
Merger Consideration: $10.33 – $10.70
Upside: 4% – 8%
Expiration Date: early 2020
During March 2020 we’ve posted 22 new ideas.
Current Price: C$30.24
Offer Price: C$39 – C$46
Upside: C$360-C$950 (odd lots)
Expiration Date: 25th of March 2020
Current Price: $26.71
Offer Price: $29 – $34
Upside: 8.5% – 27%
Expiration Date: 12th of March 2020
Current Price: HK$8.21
Merger Consideration: HK$9.00
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: 6th of March
Current price: C$6.46
Offer price: TBD
Upside: TBD
Expiration Date: by the 7th of Feb’20
Current Price: 5.2p
Offer Price: 5.5p
Upside: 6%
Closing Date: March 2020
Current Price: $1.14
Offer Price: $1.19
Upside: 4%
Expected Closing: Q1 2020
Current price: $6.13
Consideration: $6.30 in cash + $2 in CVR
Upside: 35% (with CVR)
Expected Closing Date: April’20
Current Price: C$1.74
Merger Consideration: C$1.81
Upside: 4%
Estimated Closing: January 2020
Current price: C$0.115 – C$0.12
Consideration price: C$0.123+
Upside: 2.5% – 7%+
Estimated closing date: Jan-Feb 2020
Current Price: $24.33
Offer: $26.52-$29.07
Upside: $217-$469 for odd-lots
Expiration date: 12th of February
Current Price: £1.07
Merger Consideration: £1.13
Upside: 5%
Expiration Date: Q1 ’20
During February 2020 we’ve posted 9 new ideas.
During January 2020 we’ve posted 17 new ideas.
Current Price: C$7.91
Tender Price: C$8.25
Upside: 4% (C$33 for odd-lots)
Expiration Date: 12 March 2020
This type of special situation revolves around holding companies or funds (e.g. closed-end) that trade at a discount to its NAV, have their assets listed on an exchange (straightforward valuation), and are easy to hedge. In essence, the idea is that a certain corporate event may eliminate the company’s discount to net asset value, however, all cases are different from each other so there are no ultimate rules here. For example, for a holding company, the discount elimination could be
When a company has more than one tradeable share class (e.g. additional nonvoting common share class or preferred shares) it is usual for a certain discount to exist among the classes. There might be various reasons for that – a voting benefit of voting shares, liquidation preference of the preferred stock, or the difference in free-float/liquidity/inclusion in major indices. Over the years this discount settles into a certain average and sometimes due to unexpected events (e.g. market crisis) or some
In certain jurisdictions (e.g. Honk Kong, Sweden), when a buyer acquires a certain level of ownership in the company (30% in both HK and Sweden), it must make a mandatory offer for all of the remaining shares of the company. The consideration also depends on the jurisdiction, but usually is either the last price or the highest price paid by the buyer in the last 6 months.
Mandatory offer situations might differ depending on the way the ownership threshold was
When the company becomes insolvent and is no longer able to repay its debt, it can file for Chapter 11 protection and proceed with a bankruptcy process. Depending on a particular case, the outcome of the bankruptcy might vary, but the most important question remains – is there any value to be left for equity holders? The answer to this question might provide two types of play:
Most of the time, when the bankruptcy is truly a result of a
Rights offering is another way of raising equity while giving the priority to current shareholders. Each shareholder is given an opportunity to acquire a certain amount of shares (e.g. 0.2 new shares for each currently held share) and to incentivize the participation, new shares are offered at a discount to the market price. Sometimes an oversubscription clause can be included as well, meaning that you can buy more new shares if someone else chose to abstain from exercising their rights.
Here you can find our recommended sources to expand your knowledge on special situation investing.
Above all, we’ve found that a very efficient way to learn is by analyzing past/already closed cases. SSI offers several hundreds of different special situations, where you can see the clear and concise picture of the whole set up, thought process behind the thesis, further developments, and additional valuable feedback from the members. This sums up to an experience that can be hardly compared to
Our tracking portfolio has returned +2.6% during Apr’22 and is +10% YTD. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Our tracking portfolio generated 9.5% return during June 2021 and 46% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Our tracking portfolio has returned +2.5% during March 2022 and is up 597% since 2017. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Current Price: C$32.97
Offer Price: C$36.25
Upside: 10%
Expected Closing: by Q3 2020
Our tracking portfolio generated 3.9% return during August 2021 and 53% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Our tracking portfolio generated 1.3% return during July 2021 and 47% year-to-date. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Our tracking portfolio to a big dive of -13.3% during June’22 and is down 8.7% YTD. The monthly move was somewhat ahead of the 9.5% decline in the S&P. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.
Current Price: $1.72
Offer Price: $1.96
Upside: 14%
Expiration Date: expected early October 2020
A tender offer is announced when a company intends to buy a part of its own outstanding shares. This can be done for various reasons, such as capital return to shareholders or maybe management simply thinks that shares are very cheap at the moment. Usually, the consideration comes in cash, and to incentivize participation, the offer is done at a premium to the share market price. Because of the premium, the offer might end up oversubscribed, and leave some of
When launching a tender offer the company also can opt to reduce its further administrative burden and cash out various minor shareholders. In this case, the tender offer may include an odd-lot provision. This provision means that holders of 99 shares will get accepted in the tender offer on a priority basis and won’t get prorated. Such situations provide a rather low-risk upside (yet capped) for odd-lot holders as it is very rare for an odd lot provision to get
SPAC is an acronym, short for “special purpose acquisition company”, which became extremely popular recently due to a record-breaking number of companies choosing to go public via SPAC.
A SPAC is a shell company with no operations, created in order to buy another company. So essentially, SPAC could be explained as a “bag of cash that exists for a purpose of a merger”. For private companies, SPAC is just an alternative way of going public. The whole procedure is this –
A reverse split is announced when a company intends to reduce the number of its outstanding shares. This can be done for various reasons, for example, to nominally raise the share price and keep it above $1.00/share, which is the level required to stay listed on NYSE and NASDAQ. Reverse splits include a split ratio (e.g. 1 for 100, so if you previously owed 1000 shares, only 10 will remain post-split), while the odd-lot or fractional shares usually get cashed
As a special situation liquidation can come in many different forms and stages – sometimes it’s a company that is selling all of its assets and intends to distribute the proceeds ex liquidation costs to shareholders, sometimes the company only intends to sell the assets and a lot of uncertainty regarding the sale still remains. The other times, it can be a company that simply has its assets in run-off and needs to wait a certain amount of time before
This special situation is closely related to the sum of the parts valuation of the company. There are many companies that trade at a significant discount to its SOTP and have their assets undervalued by the market. In such cases, an asset sale could become a catalyst for the share price increase as when the assets eventually get exchanged into cash, the market is much more likely to start recognizing that value.
Asset sale situations require a sum of the