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MVC Capital (MVC) – Expected Tender Offer – 5%+ upside

Current Price – $10.51

Expected Payout – TBD

Upside – TBD (likely around 5%+)

Expiration Date – TBD

The BoD of MVC Capital approved tender offer to repurchase $25m of stock (approximately 11% of outstanding). Tender is expected to commence in November and the repurchase price has not been set yet. On top of that on the 31st of October shareholders will vote whether to adopt activist proposal to increase the return of cash to shareholders. If approved this will likely give a further boost to the



Greenhill & Co (GHL) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – 1.5% upside (12% realized)

Current Price – $17.02

Offer Price – $17.25

Upside – 1.5% or $25 for odd lot holders

Expiration Date – 25th of October, 2017

GHL has launched tender for 40% of the outstanding stock. This is an opportunity to participate in the tender  that is very likely to be under-subscribed and price might shot up if that turns out to be the case. More risk averse investors can pocket $25 risk free.



Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) – Tender Offer + Expected Dividend – 20%+ upside

Current Price –$9.85

Expected Price - $12

Upside – 20%+

Expiration Date - June 2017

This is a two part special situation. The first one is a simple dutch tender with odd-lot provision. The second part comes from general undervaluation of the company where expected dividend (yet to be announced, but already communicated by management) could serve as a catalyst. At the same time the company is trading below contractually secured cashflows in the RC segment and has significant upside optionality from other business segments.



White Mountains Insurance (WTM) – Odd Lot Tender – $1200 upside (unlikely)

Current Price – $863

Offer Price – $825 – $875

Upside – $1200 (for odd lot holders if priced at the upper limit)

Expiration Date – 14th of September, 2017

This is a short note as situation is straight forward and most of the members already have familiarity with odd-lot tenders. I am mostly flagging this due to high potential upside in dollar terms (percentage wise it is only 1.3%). Risk/reward is unfavorable and I have no position at the moment.



Tropicana Entertainment (TPCA) – Tender Offer – 5.5% expected upside

Current Price – $42.6

Offer Price – $38 – $45

Upside – 5.5% (if priced at the upper limit)

Expiration Date – 2nd of August, 2017

This tender offer seems to be a step towards Carl Icahn taking the company private. Icahn’s IEP already owns 72.5% of the outstanding shares and will have 80%-95% after the tender. Due to this reason I believe that tender pricing at the upper limit is very likely (thus low risk 5.5% upside). After the tender Icahn will

 

Qiwi PLC (QIWI) – Tender Offer – 13% upside

Current Price – $24.28

Acquisition Price – $28

Upside – 13%

Expiration Date –  TBD

Otkritie Holdings announced intention to commence tender offer to purchase additional 45%-55% of class B shares of QIWI at $28/share., which is 13% premium to the current price.



CIT Group (CIT) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – Minimal upside currently

Current Price –$46.86

Offer Price - $43 – $48

Upside – 2.5% (if priced at the upper limit)

Expiration Date - 24th of May, 2017

This is a tender offer with shares currently trading in the middle of the buyback range. Tender offer has high likelihood of being priced at the upper limit and proration is expected to be low. There is no proration for odd-lot holders.

 

Global Eagle Entertainment (ENT) – Expected Tender Offer – 80% upside

Current Price –$6.2

Offer Price - $11

Upside – 80%

Expiration Date - TBD (likely H2 2017)

Global Eagle Entertainment provides satellite based entertainment and connectivity services for aviation and maritime industries (think wifi on the plane or Gogo). Company presentation is here. Its systems are installed in 750 aircraft currently and the company has contracts for further expansion. Revenues are growing at 30%+ annually, but ENT is still loss making and burning cash. I am no expert in technology investments and find these



Trez Capital Mortgage Investment (TZZ) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – Free Option

Current Price – C$7.99

Offer Price – C$8.0 – C$8.3

Upside – 4% (C$30 for odd lot holders)

Expiration Date – 14th of Feb 2017

This is a tiny opportunity in Canada. Currently the shares trade one cent below the lower limit and thus odd-lot holders are guaranteed that their shares will be purchased at least at the same price in one month.  This is a free option on any potential share price appreciation in the meantime or tender being priced at the upper limit