Merger Arbitrage (covered at A$0.795)
Quick Pitch: Plymouth Industrial REIT (PLYM)
Merger Arbitrage (at $21.30)
Guest Pitch: DallasNews (DALN)
Merger Arbitrage — 23% Upside (at $15)
Guest Pitch: Empresaria Group (EMR:L)
Merger Arbitrage: 48% Upside (at 42p)
Quick Pitch: Smart Share Global (EM)
Merger Arbitrage: 32% Upside (at $1.3)
Guest Pitch: ProAssurance (PRA)
Merger break: 35% potential return (at $23.8)
Guest Pitch: Next Science (NXS.AX)
Large Capital Return (at A$0.14)
SPAR Group (SGRP) – Merger Break – 35%-50% Upside
Current Price: $2.17
Target Price: $1.00- $1.40
Upside: 35%-50%
Expected Timeline: 1-2 months
Kronos Bio (KRON) – Strategic Review of A Busted Biopharma – 48% Upside
Current Price: $0.94
Target Price: $1.39
Upside: 48%
Expected Timeline: Q1 2025
Guest Pitch: musicMagpie (MMAG.L)
Potential Takeover – 200%+ Upside
Quick Pitch: MIND Technology (MINDP)
Preferred Stock Conversion – 29% Upside
Quick Pitch: Coveo Solutions (CVO:TO)
Tender offer with odd-lot provision
+21% upside (at the upper limit)
Quick Pitch: Talen Energy (TLNE)
Odd-Lot Tender Offer – $770+ Upside
Quick Pitch: Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK)
Liquidation (actionable only today)
Guest Pitch: Hipgnosis Songs Fund (SONG:L)
Potential Takeover – 40% Upside
Marlowe (MRL:L) – Large Asset Sale & Capital Return – 50%+ Upside
Current Price: £5.06
Target Price: £7.7
Upside: 50%+
Expected Date: H2 2024
Ocean Wilson (OCN.L) – Large Asset Sale/Discount to NAV – 40% Upside
Current Price: £9.70
Target Price: £13.80
Upside: 40%
Expiration Date: end of 2023 / early 2024
Vertical Capital Income Fund (VCIF) – Manager/Strategy Change – Upside 20%+
Current Price: $9.6
Total Price: TBD
Upside: 20%+
Expiration Date: end of 2023
Starcore International Mines (SAM.TO) – Merger Arbitrage – 34% Upside
Current Price: C$0.25
Offer Price: C$0.35
Upside: 34%
Expiration Date: TBD
Oklo Resources (OKU.AX) – Merger Arbitrage – 14% Upside
Current Price: A$0.145
Offer Price: A$0.166
Upside: 14%
Expected Closing: Q3 2022
Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) – Strategic Alternatives/Asset Sales – 100%+ Upside
Current Price: $8.08
Target Price: $17.06
Upside: 100%+
Expiration Date: TBD
BlueCity (BLCT) – Going Private – 20%+ Upside
Current Price: $1.28
Offer Price: $1.55 (adj. by the ADS fee)
Upside: 20%+
Expected Closing Date: H2 2022
Renren (RENN) – Litigation Settlement – 20%+ Upside
Current Price: $25
Target Price: $30
Upside: 20%
Expiration Date: Q1 2022
Amerigo Resources (ARREF) – Dividend Reinstatement – 75%+ Upside
Current Price: $1.02
Target Price: $1.75+
Upside: 75%
Expiration Date: Q4 2021
Altisource Asset Management (AAMC) – Preferred Equity Elimination – 96% Upside
Current Price: $17
Target Price: $33 (updated: $30)
Upside: 100%
Expiration Date: TBD
Carnival Corporation & Plc (CUK) – Share Class Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: $26.01
Target Price: $30.15
Upside: 15%
Expiration Date: TBD
Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI) – Asset Sale – Multi-bagger Upside
Current Price: $22.11
Target Price: $72.00
Upside: Multibagger Potential
Expiration date: TBD
Volkswagen (VWAPY) – Premium Mean Reversion – 18% Upside
Current Premium: 23%
Average Premium: 5%
Upside: 18%
Expiration Date: TBD
UrbanGold Minerals (UGM.V) – Merger Arbitrage – 15% Upside
Current Price: C$0.28
Offer Price C$0.32
Upside: 15%
Expected Closing: end of May’21
Emergent Capital (EMGCQ) – Portfolio Run-off – 250%+ Upside
Current Price: $0.21
Target Price: $0.70
Upside: 250%+
Expiration Date: 2025
Hunters Property (HUNT.L) – Merger Arbitrage – 16% Upside
Current Price: £0.67
Offer Price: £0.78
Upside: 16%
Expected Closing: March 2021
White Mountains Insurance (WTM) – Valuation Gap – 30% Upside
Current Price: $1080
Target Price: $1400
Upside: 30%
Expiration date: H1 2021
CombiMatrix Warrants (CBMXW) – Merger Arbitrage – 12% upside
Current Price – $2.70
Offer Price – $3.02
Upside – 12%
Expiration Date – TBD
Reliv International (RELV) – Reverse Split – $300 Upside
Current Price: $3.60
Offer Price: $3.75
Upside: $300 (for 1999 shares)
Expiration Date: 29th of November
BBX Capital (BBXIA) – Spin-off – 50%+ Upside
Current Price: $3.90
Target Price: $6.00+
Upside: 50%+
Expiration Date: TBD
Monash Absolute Investment (MA1.ASX) – NAV Discount Elimination – 10% Upside
Current Price: A$1.07
Current NAV: A$1.18 (post-tax)
Upside: 10%
Expiration Date: Q1 2021
Riviera Resources (RVRA) – Liquidation – 27% Upside
Current Price: $1.73
Liquidation Value: $2.20
Upside: 27%
Expiration Date: TBD
Valhi (VHI) – Preferred Equity Elimination – 111% Upside
Current Price: $10.69
BV/Share: $22.56 (update: BV/Share = $31)
Upside: 111%
Expiration Date: TBD
Fuchs Petrolub (FPE.DE) – Discount Mean Reversion – 11% Upside
Current Discount: 20%
Average Discount: 9%
Upside: 11%
Expiration Date: TBD
Alt Resources (ARS.ASX) – Merger Arbitrage – 5% Upside With Considerable IRR
Current Price: A$0.048
Offer Price: A$0.0505
Upside: 5%
Expected Closing: August 2020
Curious Case of LTRPB with 23x in One Day
Investing reasons behind the sharp share price runup.
Nikola (NKLAW) – Capital Structure Arbitrage – 26% Upside
Current Price: $34.52 (warrant price + exercise price)
Estimated Return: $43.65
Upside: 26%
Exercise Date: 6th of July, 2020
IAC (IAC) – NAV Discount Elimination – 30% Upside
Current Price: $191
Net Asset Value: $246
Upside: 30%
Expiration Date: Late Q2 2020
Carroll Bancorp (CROL) – Merger Arbitrage – 13% Upside
Current Price: $19.1
Offer Price: $21.63
Upside: 13%
Expected Closing Date: Q3 2020
Brand New SSI and FREE Membership for Contributors
As some of you have already noticed Special Situation Investments website has received a facelift. It was due long time ago. Hope you will enjoy the new look and any feedback is more than welcome.
Fortive (FTV) – Split-off – 8.5% Upside ($690 for Odd Lots)
Current Price –$81.68
Offer Price – $88.63
Upside – 8.5% or $690 for Odd Lot holders
Expiration date – 25th of September, 2018
Sitestar (SYTE) – Reverse Split – $15 Free Upside
Current Price – $0.125
Post Reverse Split Price – $15
Upside – $15
Expiration Date – TBD
Red Star Macalline (1528.HK) – Tender Offer – 16% Upside
Current Price – HK$10.44
Tender Consideration – H$11.78 + HK$0.39 in dividends
Upside – 16.5%
Expiration Date – 6th July, 2018
NEW FEATURE – MEMBER IDEAS
First a short foreword. Quite a few of you have shared investment ideas with me, but only a part of them ended up on the site. This was either do to lack of time to investigate them thoroughly or due to my belief that upside was not worth the risk. So usually if I did
Tangoe (TNGO) – Forced Selling + Merger Arbitrage – 25% upside
Current Price – $5.13
Expected Buyout – $6.5
Upside – 25%
Expiration Date – TBD
This is a fairly straightforward situation. Tangoe received non-binding proposals to be acquired by Marlin Equity Partners (10% shareholder) at $7.5/share and by Clearlake Capital Group and Vector Capital Management (jointly 25% shareholders) at $7/share. Following further discussions Marlin later reduced their proposal to $6.5/share. Clearlake/Vector have not issued any further updates with regards to their offer so it is not clear whether their proposal still stands.
Updates (Feb 2017)
Updates on recent investment ideas
Surrey Bancorp (SRYB) – Going Private Transaction – $225 return for record holders
Current Price – $12;
Offer Price – $12.75 (for record holders of up to 299 shares);
Upside – $225 or 6% (for record holders holders of up 299 shares);
Expiration date – TBD (shareholder meeting date not yet set);
Alstom (ALO) – Tender Offer – 28% price differential
Current Price – Eur 27.27
Offer Price – Eur 35
Upside – 28%
Expiration date – 20 January 2016
Alstom is listed in France
This is a materially different tender compared to the ones usually posted on this site. So do your own due diligence before making the purchase.
Alstom is buying back 30%
Monogram Residential (MORE) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – 5% Potential
Current Price – $8.8
Offer Price – $8.5 – $9.25
Upside – 5% or $45 ( for odd lot holders, if the upper pricing limit is used)
Expiration date – 19 December 2014
Summary:
We are conducting this Offer by means of a procedure commonly called a modified “Dutch auction”. We are