Alamos Gold (AGI.TO), mcap=$3.9bn, price $10.12 vs $7.13

– Mid-cap Canadian gold miner with the greatest odds of being acquired next.
– Ongoing consolidation in the Canadian gold mining industry.
– High-quality management team with 18 years track record of good capital allocation.
– Large enough to move the needle for senior miners in an acquisition.
– Rising production outlook.
– Partially a bet on gold prices to move upwards during the stagflationary period (as has historically happened).

– At 6% discount rate and $1,900 gold price DCF NAV stands at $10/share.
– At $2,300 gold NAV rises to $14.5/share.
– Acquisition scenario and elimination of corp expenses add +$1.0/share in NAV.

Exp. gain: +100% to $14.5/share

Full $AGI.TO write-up (free guest account required):

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