Amplify Energy (AMPY), mcap=$279m, price $7.33 vs $5.60

Pitch: Mash-up of O&G assets trading at a 65% discount to PV-10. The PV-10 itself is understated due to the recent move in energy strip and exclusion of some of the assets from it. The key asset Beta is still offline following an oil spill (not caused by the company). AMPY discount to PV-10 expected to close driven by Beta coming back online and cash flow generated at the current strip. M&A and disposal of assets might accelerate this process.

Valuation: AMPY trades at fraction of the understated PV-10. At the current strip the company is minting money and should generate $250m in FCF till the end of 2024 (60% of EV), covering the whole debt and still leaving cash on the balance sheet.

Exp. gain: 80%+ to $10+/share in H2 2022 after Beta comes online and revised PV-10 is released. +170% upside to understated PV-10/NAV.

Full AMPY write-up (free guest account required):
https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/AMPLIFY_ENERGY_CORP/9369544691

 

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