Amplitude (AMPL), mcap=$1.4bn, price $12.44 vs $16.10

AMPL pitch:
– Product analytics solution for product managers at 6.3x fwd revenue.
– Competes with solutions like Google Analytics and others.
– AMPL’s core analytics product is decently penetrated in its three key end markets, which are entering a severe contraction post-COVID.
– New product / upsell growth comes from unattractive and highly competitive segments.
– Leading indicators of growth are stalling.
– Growth is set to slow to the mid-to-high 20s next year and low 20s in the subsequent years.

AMPL valuation: Trades for 6.3x 2023 revenue with revenue growth expected in the 20s.

Exp. gain: 30-50%

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