Athira Pharma (ATHA), mcap=$310m, price $8.22 vs $10.29

– Biopharma with pending Phase 2 results for one of its drugs is expected shortly.
– If positive – 10x return.
– Proprietary DD on the likelihood of success.
– Involvement of activists with a lower cost basis
– Could have exited profitably instead of starting a proxy fight.

Valuation: Upside based on mcaps of peers CRTX and SAVA in the space.

13:1 upside: downside ratio from 900% upside case for the stock vs the ~20% downside case.

Exp. gain: +900% to $100/share in 1.5 months.

Full ATHA write-up (free guest account required):


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