Short Pitch: Car rental business is over-earning over-earning due to the auto OEM production issues impact on used car prices and rental vehicle supply. Competition is intense and historical economics has been uninspiring.
Valuation: Assuming Avis earns excess profits in 2022 and 2023 and thereafter normalized EBITDA is 335% high than pre-COVID average, leads to a $152/share price target at a 14x normalized cashflow multiple.
Exp. gain: 40%-50%
Full CAR write-up (free guest account required):