Brenntag (BNTGY), mcap=$8.6bn, price $11.48 vs $13.17

$BNTGY pitch:
– The largest independent chemical distributor globally at only 10x PE.
– Leading scale and dense global network, extremely resilient business model.
– Overstated market fears that the company is overlearning due to exceptional pricing linked to product shortages.
– Even with market conditions fully reverting, the stock would lead to mid-teens IRR over the next 3 years.

$BNTGY valuation:
– Currently trades at 10x PE.
– 2022 EBITDA is likely to be 85% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
– Assuming 7% p.a. EBITDA growth from pre-pandemic levels results in EPS of Eur5.6/share.
– At 15x multiple, that would be Eur85 stock.

Exp. gain: Mid-teens IRR to 2025.

Full BNTGY write-up (free guest account required):

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