Cairn Homes (CRN.L), mcap=€850m, price €1.13 vs. €1.25

Pitch: Ireland’s largest homebuilder – this is mostly a macro bet on Ireland’s homebuilding industry due to (1) housing market undersupply over the last 10 years, (2) high ownership affordability vs renting in Ireland, and (3) lack of scaled-up builders. FCF >> share repurchases.

Valuation: Target at 10.5×2024 EPS, UK peers trade at 9x but with higher risk profiles. Assumes +33% growth in units over the next two years as well as continued share repurchases.

Exp. gain: +67% in 18 months

Full CRN.L write-up (free guest account required):

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