Casey’s General Stores (CASY), mcap=$7.8bn, $210 vs $207

Pitch: Fourth largest C-store chain operator. Owns substantially all of its real estate. Trades below replacement cost and only slightly above the value of its real estate. Multiple strategic and financial levers to pull in order to unlock value, including (1) monetization of real estate (2) re-franchising of its stores, and (3) outsourcing distribution. The New CASY management team has been more aggressive on the M&A front (>200 stores in FY2022). Potential take-out candidate in a consolidating industry.

Valuation: CASY RE alone is worth $7B of a $9B EV. Trades below repl. cost – TEV/Store of $3.9m is below the $4.5m new build cost. 13x EBITDA results in the target of $275/share (discount to 14x peer acq.)

Exp. gain: +33% to $275

Full CASY write-up (free guest account required):
https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/CASEYS_GENERAL_STORES_INC/8455937910

 

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