ChannelAdvisor (ECOM), mcap=$461m, price $15.13 vs $14.75

– Provider of SaaS software to manage flow across multiple e-commerce channels.
– Washed up in the tech drawdown.
– Emerging from multi-year business transformation – with the big shift from eBay merchants to large enterprises.
– Subscription-type contracts depend on merchants’ GMV.
– Possible recession and slow-down in e-commerce already priced in, with risk/reward skewed to the upside.

– Currently trades at 2x revenue and 10x EBITDA.
– No direct comps, but companies with similar growth/margin profiles trade at 5x+ revenue.
– With $45m in ’25 cash EBITDA (vs $32m in ’21) and 3.5x revenue multiple, would be $30/stock.

Exp. gain: +100% to $30/share by 2025.

Full $ECOM write-up (free guest account required):

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