Consolidated Communications Holdings (CNSL), mcap=$758m, price $6.57 vs $6.62

– Creating shareholder value through a transformation from a “dying” wireline to a high-quality, “growing” fiber business.
– The most attractive unit economics of any fiber build-out in the public markets.
– 94% of footprint in favorable monopoly/duopoly markets.
– Long-haul fiber infrastructure is already in place.
– The structural advantage with cost-to-pass is materially lower than peers ($FYBR’s is 44% higher).
– Fiber roll-out is already fully funded and ahead of schedule.

– Revenues expected to grow from $1.25bn to $1.6bn till ’25/’26. EBITDA margins to approach 50%, implying $800m in EBITDA by ’25/’26 (vs $420m in ’22).
– At 12x multiple, it’s $70/stock.

Exp. gain: 10x to $70/share in 4 years.

Full CNSL write-up (free guest account required):

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