Coursera (COUR), mcap=$2.2bn, price $15.58 vs $17.00

Short pitch:
– Provider of online education courses facing multiple headwinds.
– A highly competitive industry with low barriers to entry.
– Real FCF/earnings losses are widening from pressures of (1) costly constant refresh/update on content, (2) increasing customer acquisition costs, (3) increased scrutiny by enterprise customers on learning spend, (4) fade-out of COVID demand spike.
– Scuttlebutt suggests peer UDMY with a unique marketplace model is much better positioned.

– Trades for 5x forward revenue vs 2.4x for $UDMY.
– Expected to re-rate to 3x translating into a $10/share target.

Exp. gain: 40% to $10/share

Full COUR write-up (free guest account required):

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