Crocs (CROX), mcap=$7.7bn, price $125 vs $106

CROX pitch:
– CROX presents a skewed risk-reward opportunity.
– Company is undervalued because the market doesn’t believe in management’s long-term guidance of reaching $5b in revenues by 2026.
– Despite these concerns, management has historically been able to execute well and the risk of the US market slowing down will be overshadowed by increasing global sales.
– CROCS’s brand perception has also changed from being a temporary fad to becoming a well-known fashion staple, which gives a steady demand base.

CROX valuation:
– If management can reach their revenue target, CROX will likely trade at $200-300.
– CROX will likely trade at $64-$96/share in a hard-landing scenario.

Exp. gain: 60-100% upside in a bullish scenario, 20-50% downside in a hard-landing scenario.

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