CymaBay Therapeutics (CBAY), mcap=$266, price $3.14 vs $2.29

– Sub $200m biotech with a best-in-class Phase 3 asset for primary biliary cholangitis.
– Existing cash provides runway till early ’24.
– Near-term catalyst – phase 3 readout expected in Q3’23.
– Steady commercial ramp-up starting in 2025.
– Unjustifiably sold off with the rest of the $XBI index.

– Peak sales of $500-600m with 65% operating margins by 2030.
– 70% probability of trial success results in a $650m equity value or 3x from the current prices.

Exp. gain: +200% to $7/share in 1+ years.

Full $CBAY write-up (free guest account required):

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