Equifax (EFX), mcap=$25.6bn, price $209 vs $171

– Consumer credit reporting agency at 20x ’23 EPS.
– High-moat, high-quality business with reasonable organic growth.
– Significant barriers to entry from direct receipt of employment records.
– Competitors are unable to match network flywheel effects of $EFX.
– Pressures from lower mortgage issuance volumes and a weakening economy are already reflected in the price.

– Expected to generate $1.5bn in FCF by 2025.
– At 20x PE multiple, that’s $245/share.

Exp. gain: +47% to $245/share by 2025.

Full $EFX write-up (free guest account required):

Leave a Comment