Everbridge (EVBG), mcap=$1.2bn, price $29.98 vs $40.00

$EVBG pitch:
– High-quality enterprise SaaS business with 85% of recurring revenue, 110%+ net revenue retention, & multi-year contracts.
– Provides mass notification and critical event management software – given the increasingly risky operating environment enterprise clients are unlikely to cancel subscriptions in a recession or downturn.
– EVBG is too cheap, trading at 4x 2023 revenue multiple and a reasonable multiple of forward EBITDA.
– Activist investor Ancora Advisors took a stake in Everbridge and has been publicly pushing the board to sell the company.
– According to Ancorra, there are likely several interested private equity buyers.
– The new CEO is no stranger to selling public companies.
– 3 directors have made open market purchases at much higher prices.

$EVBG valuation:
– If the business remains independent, EVBG will be worth ~$90/share based on ~14x 2026 EBITDA of ~$280 million.
– In a takeout scenario, EVBG could fetch 5.5x 2023 revenue or more than $60/share.

Exp. gain: +100%-200% to $60-90/share

Full EVBG write-up (free guest account required):

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