Pitch: Regional operator of 5 casinos with EBITDA expected to compound at 45% CAGR (from FY22 to FY25) driven by two new properties coming fully online by 2023 and 2025. New developments will also make FLL a scale operator in the regional gaming space warranting a multiple re-rate in line with larger regional gaming peers. Additional upside from 6 permitted sports betting skins in Colorado and Indiana.
Valuation: FLL EBITDA is expected to double in FY23 to $120m driven by the partial operation of the new developments. This translates into $75m of FCF and at a 15% yield to the $14 target share price. EBITDA is expected to reach $175-$200m in FY25.
Exp. gain: +54% to $14/share in one year, or $20/share over a longer period.
Full FLL write-up (free guest account required):