Global Business Travel Group (GBTG), mcap=$2.6bn, price $5.84 vs $8.35

– Business travel management company, #1 player globally.
– Set to rebound together with corporate travel, which is still well below pre-covid levels.
– Recent de-SPAC got decimated together with the rest of the SPAC market.
– Formed when $APO sponsored SPAC merged with Amex Global Business and was spun off from $AXP with the parent retaining 35% ownership.
– A fragmented market gives an opportunity for further consolidation.

– Set to deliver $846m in EBITDA when industry volumes recover to pre-covid levels by 2025 (management thinks this is achievable by 2023).
– At 10x multiple, below peers and recent transactions, it’s a $17/stock.

Exp. gain: +100% to $17/share over the next 2-3 years.

Full GBTG write-up (free guest account required):

Leave a Comment