Green Plains (GPRE), mcap=$1700m

GPRE pitch:
– Green Plains is transitioning from a legacy ethanol company into a diversified bio-refinery after the acquisition of Fluid Quip in 2020.
– The company is now at an inflection point where the market will start to see a meaningful increase in financial performance.
– Half of GPRE’s facilities have already been converted to include these AgTech enhancements while the remainder should be converted within 18 months.
– Q1’23 earnings will mark the beginning where half of GPRE’s platform runs at planned production capacity.
– Activist Ancora is now pushing for strategic alternatives, including a sale, suggesting a strategic acquirer could pay $50/share or more.

GPRE valuation:
– GPRE trades at <5x E2023 EBITDA of around $450m.
– Company is worth around $60-$65/share over the next 12-18 months.

Exp. gain:

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