InPost (INPST.AS), mcap=€2.9bn, price €5.91 vs €6.40

– Operator of a network of postage lockers mostly in Poland.
– Was covid beneficiary and shares sold off 70% from the post-IPO highs.
– Expected to reach FCF breakeven in 2027 with meaningful scale benefits to the bottom line.
– In the near term faces a number of manageable headwinds – high-interest rates, competition in a commoditized market, large lease liabilities, and lower than optimal utilization rates.

Valuation: DCF model with sales set to increase 3x over the next 10 years and EBITDA margins to improve from 29% to 48%, results in a fair value estimate of EUR 9.5/share today.

Exp. gain: +50% to EUR 9.5/share.

Full INPST.AS write-up (free guest account required):

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