Iteris (ITI), mcap=$120m, price $2.82 vs $3.00

– Provider of products and services for traffic monitoring and optimization at intersections.
– Cheap on 2025 revenue and earnings projections.
– Large fragmented TAM with $ITI ahead of the competition in terms of the breadth of products and services.
– ARR at 25% of total revenues and rising.
– Exposed to positive secular trends from increased use of traffic data for non-public applications, autonomous vehicles, and infrastructure bills.
– Margins are temporarily suboptimal due to supply chain issues.

– Trades at EV/Rev multiple of 0.6x on 2023E numbers with PE of 12.7x after stripping strip out net cash.
– At an 17% EBITDA margin (vs 5-6% this year) on 2025 revenue of $225m (vs $133m now), EBITDA would be $38m – at 15x multiple results in $14/share target.

Exp. gain: +367% to $14/share by 2025

Full $ITI write-up (free guest account required):

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