Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST), mcap=$255m, price $8.50 vs $8.00

$MIST pitch:
– Special situation biotech that is a ‘process’ and not a ‘science’ play.
– 90% chance of being up 100% and a 10% chance of being down 50% over the coming weeks/months.
– Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III have already been completed with great data.
– But MIST screwed up the presentation of the Phase III data resulting in denied FDA approval.
– Just finished re-running the trial and is due to re-present the data in the back half of the year.

$MIST Valuation:
– Previously traded at $20 upon approval expectations and is expected to re-rate to similar levels.
– As the drug works, should not be zero in case of another denial and need for a third re-run.
– The downside at $3.5/share.

Exp. gain: +100% to $20/share

Full MIST write-up (free guest account required):

Leave a Comment