Morguard (MRC.TO), mcap=$1.2bn, price $113 vs $110

– Developer of real estate projects in Canada and the U.S. Trades at 68% discount to NAV, well below historical levels.
– Paying C$2.1bn mcap for C$1.8bn of cash listed securities + C$2.1bn of directly-owned real estate.
– At 5.8x ’22 FFO is significantly below peer valuations.
– Half of the portfolio is in multifamily residential and 23% in office space.
– Consistent historical financial results.
– The CEO owns 60% of the common.
– Resumption of buybacks, monetization of properties, and post-covid recovery are expected to act as catalysts.

– Historical FFO multiple of 9.5x, peer blended multiple of 13.7x.
– Normalized FFO is expected at C$22.5 – in line with 2019 levels and 20% above pandemic affected 2020-2022.
– A Conservative valuation of C$213/share puts the company at a 37% discount to NAV, slightly below historical levels.
– Valuation at peer multiple results in a 200% upside.

Exp. gain: +100-200% upside

Full $MRC.TO write-up (free guest account required):

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