M&T Bank (MTB), mcap=$19362m

MTB pitch:
– The bank is oversold on fears caused by the collapse of SVB and other banks.
– However, MTB is run by a conservative mgmt team in markets with stickier deposit bases.
– That does not make them immune to dumb ideas, but it greatly reduces the risk to shareholders.
– MTB has consistently earned mid-teens ROTE.
– Pays out a healthy dividend, and uses excess capital to buyback stock.
– Last year’s merger with People’s United provides significant scale benefits, which should become evident shortly.

MTB valuation:
– In 2022, MTB earned $14.42 per share
– Expected to earn north of $20/share in 4-5 years, with excess cash used for buybacks.
– At 13x multiple would be a $260 stock.

Exp. gain: 120%

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