Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG), mcap=$186m, price $2.14 vs $2.20

Pitch: Sub-scale Jones Act tanker shipping firm. Recent results were negatively affected by COVID disruptions on its routes and forced lay-up of 1/3 of the fleet. Currently, only two ships remain in lay-up and these are expected to come into service over the next 3-6 months. The economics of bringing back all ships out of lay-up are fairly dramatic – $70m expected pre overhead profit contribution vs $45m losses in 2021. A shareholder with 15% ownership tried to buy the company at $3/share in mid-2021 and is likely to come back with a higher offer.

Valuation: Expected to earn $130m EBITDA run rate starting in Q3 (vs $45m on LTM basis). At 6x EBITDA – in line with recent deals in the sector – would be valued at $5.25/share.

Exp. gain: +140% to $5.25/share

Full OSG write-up (free guest account required):

Leave a Comment