– A bet that a P3 study of the drug previously abandoned by PFE will fail.
– Result announcement is expected in Q2’22 after years of delay, which has rendered the statistical powering assumptions meaningless.
– The drug in the P3 study account for the majority of the SWTX valuation.
– Assuming a $500M residual value for the pipeline would yield a ~$17 price target.
Exp. gain: 50% to $17/share on the failure of P3 results.
Full SWTX write-up (free guest account required):