Ströer SE & Co. (SAX.DE), mcap=€2.4bn, price €42.42 vs €42.00

– The largest out-of-home advertising business in Germany at a wide discount to fair value.
– 60% market share.
– Management owns 40% and aims to simplify the business over the next 2-3 years.
– Expected to generate more than the current market cap in cash over the next 5 years from earnings and asset sales.
– Shares are depressed due to structural/accounting complexity, Covid-related volatility, and recession fears.

– Trades at 8% 2022 FCF yield.
– SOTP value of eur100/share or 100% upside.
– Assuming eur65/share in distributions (for earnings and asset sales) and 5% FCF exit yield in 2026 results in a eur130/share target.

Exp. gain: 4x-5x return over next 4 years.

Full SAX.DE write-up (free guest account required):

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