Tellurian (TELL), mcap=$2.4bn, price $4.62 vs $6.34

Pitch: US is one of the lowest cost LNG exporters and TELL might be 1 of the next 3 LNG projects to get built in the US. TELL owns a land plot and LNG project, that has been fully permitted and ready to go except for financing, which is expected to be announced shortly.

Valuation: Assuming $14/mmbtu LNG (vs $34 today) the business would generate a run-rate FCF of ~$4bn in 2026. At 10x cash flow and discount back at 15% WACC, results in $20/share.

Exp gain: 200% to $20/share.

Full TELL write-up (free guest account required):

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