Tempur Sealy (TPX), mcap=$4.8bn, price $27.48 vs $22.55

– Category-leading mattresses retailer at <15x recession case FCF.
– Cyclical industry downturn now fully priced into equity.
– Earnings durability coming from, industry consolidation, improved balance sheet allowing material buybacks, reduced dependence on Mattress Firm, and fast-growing DTC business now accounting for 18% of sales.

Valuation: 10x levered FCF or 8x EBITDA on mid-cycle/normalized estimates (+50% vs 2021A levels) results in$85/share target by 2026.

Exp. gain: +300% to $85/share in 4-5 years.

Full $TPX write-up (free guest account required):

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