Vistra (VST), mcap=$10.5bn, price $24.34 vs $21.70

$VST pitch:
– Electricity producer and power distributor, mainly in Texas.
– Trades under 5x normalized FCF.
– Due to high current energy prices, the company is locking in windfall profits through 2025.
– Aggressively returning capital to shareholders, with the current buyback program equal to 20% of mcap (more than half already implemented).
– Expects to return $7.5bn over 5 years.
– Insiders recently made open market purchases.

$VST Valuation:
– Trades under 7x EBITDA and 5x normalized FCF before growth.
– Capital returns alone are enough to generate a 20% IRR over a multi-year holding period without any multiple expansions.

Exp. gain: 20% IRR + potential multiple expansion.

Full $VST write-up (free guest account required):

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