Xometry (XMTR) short, mcap=$1.4bn, price $30.18 vs $45.00

XMTR pitch:
– Marketplace for small batch manufacturing and prototyping.
– Currently trades at its Jun’21 IPO level.
– At 4.5x revenue, while comps are in the 1-2x range.
– Competitive and low-entry barrier industry that is significantly exposed to macro headwinds.
– Clients and suppliers can as easily connect directly.
– No clear operating leverage with increasing scale – $XMTR just continues to spend more.
– Relies heavily on paid Google Adwords to drive traffic.
– Guiding down in pricing already happened with Q3’22 results, volume show might drop next year.

XMTR valuation:
– Trades at 4.5x revenues, still at the IPO price vs. a comp universe 3-D printers and short-run fabricators in the 1-2x range.

Exp. gain: 50%-75%

Full write-up (free guest account required):