Special Situation Investment Opportunities

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We focus on special situation investment and risk arbitrage ideas with short term catalysts. All investment opportunities are tied to some specific corporate action or event and are expected to generate returns in the near future with lower risk. Unbiased and high quality research is provided for each case.

Previous ideas are free to view for all visitors, however currently actionable ideas are restricted to members only. Currently there are  10 Actives Ideas posted on the site. For examples of previously published ideas check here.

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Inactive ideas



Syngenta (SYT) – Merger Arbitrage – 17% upside

Current Price –$79.34

Offer Price - $93

Upside – 17.5%

Expiration Date - TBD (likely in H1 2017)

Let me start by saying that this is a large cap transaction and the deal is widely followed and analysed – I do not have any superior insights with regards to the likelihood of the transaction going through so my opinion is as good as anybody’s else. However, I believe this opportunity is quite interesting, spread is large (17%) and therefore worth flagging.



Implant Sciences (IMSCQ) – Liquidation – 45%+ upside

Current Price –$0.105

Expected pay-off – $0.15+ (potentially $0.25+ or more)

Upside – at least 45%+

Expiration Date - TBD

This is just a quick note as I have not had a chance to look at this more in depth and should be able to do that next week. This special situation concerns nano-cap company (market cap only $10m), thus stock can be really volatile, so do your own due diligence before investing. I have a small long position in IMSCQ.



Nuveen Nasdaq 100 (QQQX) – Arbitrage Trade – 4% upside

Current Price – $20.05

Expected Price – $19.20

Upside – 4%

Expiration timeframe – 1-2 weeks

This is a fairly simple and straightforward arbitrage idea. QQQX is a closed and fund that is mimicking Nasdaq 100 index and trying to juice up the returns by selling covered calls. Historically this fund has always traded at c. 5% discount to NAV – discount to NAV prevails mainly due to funds admin fees, which are levied on shareholders returns. You can see NAV vs share price



Trez Capital Mortgage Investment (TZZ) – Odd Lot Tender Offer – Free Option

Current Price – C$7.99

Offer Price – C$8.0 – C$8.3

Upside – 4% (C$30 for odd lot holders)

Expiration Date – 14th of Feb 2017

This is a tiny opportunity in Canada. Currently the shares trade one cent below the lower limit and thus odd-lot holders are guaranteed that their shares will be purchased at least at the same price in one month.  This is a free option on any potential share price appreciation in the meantime or tender being priced at the upper limit

  

Transalta (TA-PD.TO) – Exchange Offer – 2.7% upside

Arbitrage Trade

Upside – 2.7%

Expiration Date - Q1 2017

This idea was suggested to me by one reader of the site – it’s an arbitrage trade in Canadian preferred shares. Upside is tiny, but the deal itself is interesting – so I decided to write it up. I have a small position mainly to track how this transaction plays out.

      

ZAIS Financial (ZFC) – Tender Offer – 12% upside

Current Price –$14.06;

Offer price – at least $15.36 + $0.4 in dividends, a total of $15.76;

Upside – 12%

The tender offer is expected to be announced at the beginning of Q4 2016 and completed by the end of the quarter. Dividends will be distributed for record holders as of 30th of September 2016.