The largest fresh egg producer.Cyclical over-earner with a burning platform due to cage-free transition. The market exaggerates the company’s ability to sustain exceedingly high cash flows (8x normal on a quarterly basis). CALM is expected to re-rate over the next 18 months as the US egg-laying flock recovers from highly pathogenic avian influenza-linked excess mortality. Egg prices are set to normalize by the end of 2023, but COGS will remain elevated. In addition to this, the necessary investments to transition to cage-free, demanded by US consumers and numerous state legislatures, will cause BV erosion in the coming years. Short interest is at 15%, but otherwise limited risks to shorting.

The #1 music asset for only $12bn. Spotify is now at an inflection point with the acceleration of new product/feature adoption and with margins set to aggressively inflect upwards. The negative margins in 2022 were driven by short-term headwinds and a year of heavy Podcast investments. Spotify has more leverage over music labels than most people think. Streaming is now 60% of the major label’s total revenues and SPOT is 2/3rds of that. Additionally SPOT can provide record labels with the broadest and most granular amount of data on users' listening behavior, genre trends, or any undiscovered and upcoming artists. There is still a good amount of negative sentiment on the stock and consensus estimates are far too low. The market is wrong in believing that Spotify is at the mercy of major music labels and does not have a viable business model.

Diversified footwear retailer at 5x PE. Owns the Famous Footwear brand of stores (870 stores). Equity is materially mispriced and generates significant free cash flow. Q4 results are expected to be nicely above guidance as a normal seasonal pattern recovers into Christmas. Set to fully repay its debt over the next 18 months. Has repurchased 7% of shares over the last 3 quarters and has large remaining repo authorization.

Producer of Invisalign clear teeth aligners. Invented and won the category, crushed the competition - 75% market share. However, the market does not appreciate how much the demand was pulled forward during COVID. Has grown 20-25% during 2010-2019, but then growth exploded to 50-60% in 2021. Channel checks indicate prescribers of Invisalign seeing a slowdown in their business, with the 2022 year expected to be down 10% vs 2019 levels. Given that treatment times are 6-18 months in length, this slowdown is not yet fully visible in ALNG numbers, but inventory is increasing and deferred revenue growth is decelerating.

Canon, the maker of printers and cameras, is one of the last remaining consumer electronic covid over-earners that have yet to crack. Structurally declining, disadvantaged behemoth whose decline has been masked by temporary pricing benefits that are in the process of reversing. Product prices reverting in both printer and camera segments. Management is overoptimistic and has a history of missing targets. EPS for 2023 is expected to be 33% below consensus. The glut of printer inventory and the pricing under pressure. Canon is a long-term short that should materially underperform the indexes over the next several years.

Luxury outerwear parka-focused brand trading attractively at near all-time low valuation on trough earnings. Market sentiment hit rock bottom, driven by one of the worst earnings performances amongst peers, concerns around China exposure, and other one-offs. The market incorrectly believes that current profitability is the new norm and that GOOS's growth runway is limited. The company is set to recover from ~40% depressed store productivity due to COVID-induced demand barriers and is also set to continue executing on its highly accretive, long runway of double-digit % DTC retail footprint expansion.

Large-cap producer of atmospheric and industrial gases (oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen and etc). APD is in a great position to take advantage of the hydrogen future, and they have been the most aggressive of their peers in going after the opportunity. Expected high-teens IRR over the next 5 years, potentially above this range if hydrogen plays out as hoped. 52% of revenue is supplied on-customer-site with 15-20 year contracts, while the rest comes from merchant channels typically under 3-5 year contracts. Stable cash flows with proven ability to pass through commodity cost increases. 50% of earnings paid out as dividend (2% yield). An oligopolistic industry that has historically provided stability and pricing power.

Real estate developer that owns ~170k acres of coastal land in Northwest Florida, mostly Walton/Bay counties. A very good and detailed write-up of the investment opportunity. The company is actively developing residential communities and is shifting focus to recurring revenue streams. Income to be generated from the ongoing developments in 3% of JOE's land in Walton/Bay counties accounts for the majority of its market cap today, meaning investors pay very little for the remaining 97% of the land with entitlements for commercial, residential, and hotel rooms. JOE's is not a temporary covid beneficiary - JOE’s business inflection has been a decade in the making and covid just provided an acceleration of already occurring themes. If the Bay/Walton region continues to grow, the commercial & hospitality segments alone will make up more than the entire market cap within ~5 years and will still have decades' worth of growth left.

Medical technology company with two products for treating underserved chronic conditions at home - Flexitouch for lymphedema and Afflovest for bronchiectasis/fibrosis. Currently, TCMD is underearning as investments in Flexitouch salesforce haven't yet paid off due to covid. The sales of the second product (Afflovest, acquired in Sep'21) is still ramping up, but eventually, 50-60% of incremental revenue should drop down to EBIT. Market for Afflovest remains very large and underpenetrated. The demand has been so great thus far in 2022 - the company not only increased revenue guidance for Afflovest from $20m to $35m (100% yoy growth) and had to sign on a second source supplier to be able to meet the demand.

One of the most compelling merger arbs deals is based on downside risk (fundamental) vs. upside skew. Homerun if the deal gets approved by the global regulatory bodies - a 44%+ IRR at current prices if $MSFT acquires ATVI at $95/share. Opportunity exists due to the uniqueness of the deal - directional institutional investors are unable to invest due to style drift whereas arb community is spooked by several large merger arbs blowing up recently. The market is ascribing only a 37% deal probability, which is too low and should be around 60%. $MSFT already announced deal concessions and there have been indications that Microsoft will pursue Activision in the courts if the FTC sues over the deal. Downside is well protected by the fundamental value of the business.

One of the cheapest names trading at 29-40% normalized FCF yield. Shares worth 2-3x their current valuation. Natural resources company with a significant event angle regarding a hidden asset. Owns, manages, and leases natural resource properties to mine operators. 87% of pre-corporate EBITDA comes from the Coal Royalty business and the rest from the 49% ownership of Soda Ash assets. The owner of the remaining 51% is a publicly traded entity $SIRE that has received a strategic bid for the company. For NRP, this minority asset is worth ~75-100% of today’s market cap, but only accounts for 14% of the current run-rate FCF.

Small cap Canadian pharma with the shares near an all-time low and the business fundamentals finally inflecting to the positive. Investment case is mainly based on Vascepa, one of HLS's two drugs that is in the initial stages of commercialization. Vascepa is approved, it's clinically effective, it now has reimbursement coverage, and Pfizer Canada is the team pushing things forward for commercialization (and is well-compensated to do so). Vascepa sales in Canada are growing 30%-40% QoQ and only now reaching sufficient prescription levels to break even for this drug. The difficulties of new drug commercialization, and in turn the reason for the low share price, was mainly caused by Canada’s lengthy COVID lockdown which delayed the company's original plan by 18 months. Precedent drugs suggest management estimate of 10% penetration is overly conservative and that 20-40% levels could be reached.

A portfolio of largely infrastructure-like assets at less than 5x P/E and more than 6% dividend yield. CKH's primary businesses today are ports, retail, telecom, infrastructure, and energy. Roughly ~13% of EBIT comes from China and HK combined, and ~58% comes from Europe. List of transitory reasons that caused the stock to go from "discounted" to "severely discounted" since 2017. A number of catalysts are on the horizon, including IPOs/disposals of assets, more buybacks and more active role in pushing te group forward from the new Chairman. If nothing happens, then we are sitting with a 6% dividend yield and a 10yr track-record of the company compounding BV at ~7%.

Toast is a vertical software platform for restaurants, including POS, inventory management and payroll. Restaurant industry lags in technological adoption, with legavy clunky providers still holding significant market share. An EMV-induced POS upgrade cycle in 2015 will result in higher-than-expected demand over the next two years. TOST set to reach >50% of the market by theend of the decade. TOST's subscription platform is under-monetized with customers spending only 1/3 of potential ARPU. High cutomer attach rates due to lock in into mission-critical restaurant workstreams.

OmniAb is a recent spinout from $LGND that merged with a SPAC. Shares have been driven down by post-spin strutural sell-off as large part of $LNGD shareholders could not own $OABI. OmniAb earns revenue from access fees, milestone payments, and royalties on its antibody development technologies and patents. Both large pharma and smaller startups are clients. AminoAb has durable future cash flows from various income streams so not the typical binary biotech bet. Extremely high takeout value by a strategic acquirer. Even bear case assumptions would merit a share price nearly double where it trades today.

Social media management platform that trades at >10x forward Sales. COVID beneficiary - expected to rerate similar to other high flyers that miss on expectations. Core offering aggregates clients’ social feeds (e.g. Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.) onto one integrated dashboard for easier management. TAM significantly overstated and management's projections of 30% CAGR are unrealistic. Cyclical business driven by marketing budgets. Expected to be negativelly affected by changes and increasing API pricing at $TWTR. Competition in the space is intensifying and customer acquition costs are set to go up.

Excess and surplus (E&S) insurer trading at a remarkable 12x book value and 40x earnings. E&S insurance cycle is topping out and will likely start turning down next year, leading to a fantastic short opportunity in this highly inflated stock. Kinsale has rapidly taken share as standard insurer carriers did not want to participate in E&S area in the aftermath of the financial crisis and during COVID. Six-year old hard market is now about to turn - competition and E&S supply is quickly ramping up after years of outsized gains.

Krispy Kreme - glazed donut brand with a complicated turnaround story of debatable effectiveness. Downside could be 100% at QSR peer valuation levels and bankruptcy is a probability. The risk/reward here is rather asymmetric and favors the downside given the Company’s execution risk, negligible FCF profile, and near-term maturity wall that should serve as a catalyst. This business generates only $30m in unlevered FCF per year, likely insufficient to support $780m of debt at market rates. DNUT has $750mn of bank debt going current in June 2023 and the company might require an equity raise. So far cash flows have been insulated from rising rates as the Company’s current bank debt is underpriced at L+225 with rate risk hedged at 4%.

Provider of outsourced human capital management services/software with a lengthy list of upcoming event catalysts. Steady business, with 3-5 year contracts, 15-year average customer life, and 97% revenue retention. Comp set is performing very well in the stock market. The stock was down 20% after a botched secondary offering, however, the key orchestrator Bill Foley pulled out from selling stock in the offering, and his number two, Bill Massey, subsequently bought $840,000 of stock around current trading levels. Expected to recover to pre-secondary levels in short term.

Recent spin-off from Zimmer Biomet with shares down 80% from the first day of trading. Orthopedics company offering spine surgery solutions and dental implants. A stable, 65% gross margin business. Set to benefit from the recovery in elective surgery activity after the pandemic. Margins' improvement potential from the current 9% to 15-20% peer levels. Trades far below peer group on a revenue multiple. Trailing revenues were weak due to distortion by several transitory factors.

A recent spin-off from $FTAI with 4 infrastructure assets: 3 energy terminals and a railroad business. EBITDA is set to increase from $140 million today to $250 million in the next 12-18 months. FPI's Jefferson terminal is now on the cusp of generating strong earnings and finally gaining momentum after years of investment. Earnings at Transtar railroad have been consistently increasing through new business initiatives. Construction of the 485MW power plant at Long Ridge is complete. The downside is well protected at current share price levels.

UK oil and gas company with 85% production of gas. Trades at 81% FCF yield for 2023. Low valuation is driven by the UK windfall profit tax, warmer than expected weather resulting in full gas storages that brought European gas prices down, and the absence of share buybacks as management hoars the cash. Serica is mostly unhedged and benefits from the current high gas prices. Two-thirds of the market cap is in cash.

A bullish bet on Ethereum $ETH during the current crypto winter - quite an entertaining read. The entire crypto space is ~90% horrible. Ethereum is the #2 most legitimate crypto asset after Bitcoin. Transition to proof-of-stake converted Ethereum to a deflationary asset. Now with a bond with yield Ethereum could someday overtake Bitcoin as the #1 store of value. Several other L1 Ethereum competitors have been crippled by the current environment. Bad crypto news is no longer driving Bitcoin and Ethereum prices lower. $ETHE discount to its Ethereum holdings recently widened to 40%. Although the discount is unlikely to close any time soon due to high asset management fees, $ETHE provides a highly asymmetric payoff tree on top of spot Ethereum's own highly asymmetric payoff tree.

Recent $AIG spin-off trading 5x 2023 EPS or at 40-50% discount to peers. High-quality life insurance/retirement services franchise, with run-rate ROE, expected at 12-14%. Market leader in major lines of business. Less risky liability profile relative to peers. Experienced, tenured management team. Multiple levers for ROE expansion and EPS growth. 4% dividend yield.

Lowest-cost provider of fiber-only internet connectivity - direct internet access and VPN services for corporate customers, and wholesale IP transit services. Cogent is attractive on a standalone basis, but the pending acquisition of Sprint Wireline transforms the business. The transaction will be >75% accretive to standalone EBITDA and >100% accretive to standalone FCF on an operational and run-rate basis by 2028. Compelling risk/reward with a ~7% forward dividend yield. 2028 dividends are set to reach $12/share.

Chewy is an obvious COVID beneficiary but the market and street have been lulled into a false sense of security. Too expensive for low-growth businesses. Volumes are already at LSD - but growth was boosted by inflationary pricing. The market for online pet consumables is likely to be close to full penetration. The margin profile of this business is structurally capped by Amazon. The Consumables category is dominated by a small number of brands with significant loyalty, allowing customers to easily shop around and price compare.

Marketplace for small batch manufacturing and prototyping. Currently trades at its Jun'21 IPO level. At 4.5x revenue, while comps are in the 1-2x range. Competitive and low-entry barrier industry that is significantly exposed to macro headwinds. Clients and suppliers can as easily connect directly. No clear operating leverage with increasing scale - $XMTR just continues to spend more. Relies heavily on paid Google Adwords to drive traffic. Guiding down in pricing already happened with Q3'22 results, volume show might drop next year.

Peloton short thesis has played out with stock 50% below IPO levels and down from the $162 covid peak. There is a lot of value from changed management with the focus finally shifting from growth to profitability. Gross margins were temporarily depressed and marketing spending limited due to elevated COGS from 2021-2022 bike orders. Hardware GMs are expected to return to closed pre-covid levels of 25%-40%, generating sufficient cash to fund premium subscriber growth. TAM is much bigger than bears think with $PTON expected to dominate the premium end of the market. Lots of value in a cheap Peloton App with a number of ways to monetize it.

Semiconductor assembly services provider - the world’s most wonderfully boring businesses to own at 9x earnings and shifting into higher margin services. For a semi business, it has very low cyclicality and low Capex needs yet above-industry revenue growth, 3-year CAGR of 20%. Trades at 9x earnings. Expected to double no later than 2H23. Oligopolistic industry - AMKR is the No.2 player with a 25% share, behind $ASX with 35%. Due to increasing chip complexity, the industry is shifting towards less commoditized and more advanced packaging/assembly solutions, requiring more R&D and tighter integration with customers. This also rives increasing margins for key players.

Quick-service restaurant chain transforming into asset-light franchisor led by a dynamic new CEO. Upon execution of the asset monetization and refranchising efforts expected to re-rate from 10x to 15x EBITDA in line with its highly franchised QSR peers. The new CEO is reinvigorating unit growth by mending franchisee relationships and improving unit economics. Investors are misconstruing the recent acquisition of Del Taco and the resulting temporarily lower franchised mix. On the contrary, this acquisition provides refranchising and real estate monetization opportunities.

Pool chemicals and equipment retailer, with chemicals being 45% of sales. Benefitted from chlorine shortages that drove pricing and market share gains. LESL revenue grew +60% and EBITDA +80% since 2019. Shortages were caused by one of the three US chlorine suppliers being offline for 3 years due to a factory fire as well as general covid related supply chain issues. Trichlor chlorine tablet prices were up +2.5x. With a new higher capacity plant already online and ramping up, chlorine has recently come back into balance and prices started to fall. LESL market share gains are set to revert with revenues and earnings expected to decline in 2023, with EPS expectations 30% below consensus. Inventories are at all-time highs.

Product analytics solution for product managers at 6.3x fwd revenue. Competes with solutions like Google Analytics and others. AMPL’s core analytics product is decently penetrated in its three key end markets, which are entering a severe contraction post-COVID. New product / upsell growth comes from unattractive and highly competitive segments. Leading indicators of growth are stalling. Growth is set to slow to the mid-to-high 20s next year and low 20s in the subsequent years.

FDIC-regulated bank which specializes in serving the crypto-currency ecosystem and acquired the Diem platform from $META. An institution with a very liquid asset book of government securities trading below tangible book. No credit risk exposure to crypto. Silvergate is down from $220 to $30 over the past year. At 1xBV downside is very well protected with material optionality from crypto recovery or Diem getting regulatory approval.

Multi-family real estate owner that trades at a 50% discount to its NAV. TCI's BV/share is set to double to $89/share after the proceeds of the recent asset sale get reflected in the financials. The company will be flush with cash - $336m in total or almost equivalent to the current market cap of $350m. Additionally, there is the substantial incremental value from the MTM valuation of properties as well as land on the balance sheet. Controlling shareholder and external asset manager are a risk.

Vendor for global wireless network operators specializing in backhaul solutions. Shareholders have recently rejected the hostile takeover by peer $AVNW at $3.8/share (70% upside from current levels). $AVNW used a difficult equity market environment to opportunistically scoop up an undervalued asset. While $AVNW is the leader in North American backhaul, CRNT is now encroaching on its territory, having secured contracts with every NA Tier 1 operator. Renewed talks between AVNW and CRNT present the potential for near-term upside realization. Post proxy fight CRNT management is forced to drive shareholder value.

Cable broadband provider - overbuilder that piggybacks on the existing networks to install additional cable network that is a little faster and costs a little less to subscribers. Excessive correction in stock price presents an attractive entry point. Broadband operators as a group are, for the first time in history, losing broadband subscribers as of Q2/22 due to competitive pressure from Fixed Wireless Access and Fiber-to-the-Home technologies that are taking market share. However, WOW is quite insulated from competitive threats because FWA and fiber do not have a big presence in WOW markets.

Leader in boutique fitness market - pilates, barre, indoor cycling, yoga, etc. Asset-light and scalable franchise business model. Similar to $PLNT in its early innings when its stock exhibited lackluster appreciation, but which saw a rapid share price increase after a period of continued solid growth and execution. Expected revenue CAGR of 30% with EBITDA margins set to double to 40%+ in the next 3 years.

Pure play alternative asset manager focused exclusively on the digital infrastructure space - cell towers, data centers, small cells, and fiber. A transformed Colony Capital (CLNY) with nearly all legacy assets sold off. A significant step up in earnings is expected in 2023 following the launch of several new funds. The market is now pricing in zero success in fundraising and zero credit towards carried interest. The market sentiment is likely to rapidly reverse upon the announcement of successful new fund launches. The CEO and other insiders started buying stock recently. Infrastructure has been a key growth engine for alternative asset managers – $KKR, $BX, etc., are all raising significant capital for infrastructure investments and $DBRG is the fastest-growing alternative asset manager out there.

Mexico's largest and most profitable toll-road operator. Trades at 6x EBITDA vs 14-15x not long ago purely due to market mispricing. Mexico is on sale at the moment - most blue chips are at their lowest valuations ever. Investor sentiment is expected to reverse eventually. Resilient and profitable business with a lengthy track record of successful execution and an attractive runway ahead. Worst case scenario it is a great asset that (between buybacks and dividends) will be paid back in 5-6 years.

Small-cap industrial manufacturer and service provider to the rail and general infrastructure industries. Over the last two years, FSTR was transformed from strategy, leverage, and management perspectives. Currently is too cheap relative to the expected growth in free cash flow over the next few years. Recent acquisitions and timely divestitures indicate a greater portion of future revenue growth and increased profitability will come from higher gross margin segments of rail technologies and precast concrete. Tailwinds from the recent US infrastructure packages, stable, large-scale commercial and infrastructure construction projects. Set to elevate back to Russell 2000 at some point in 2023-2024 - was kicked out in June'21.

The fifth-largest franchised automotive dealer in the US. Investment thesis based on several industry-wide and company-specific factors. (1) Fears regarding EV transition overblown - manufacturer won't switch to DTC model and dealerships are here to say. (2) Dealers are not over-earning - gains from used vehicle sales are offset by decreased new car sales. (3) ABG normalized margins are materially above 2019 levels. ABG is the best-in-class operator with margins and operating KPIs that consistently exceed other publicly traded dealership groups. Admirable track record of capital allocation, reducing share count by nearly a third since 2010 while adding ~60 net new dealerships (out of 148 current total).

The last remaining independent Aerospace & Defence supplier likely to be acquired in the near term. A highly strategic asset that is in discussions with multiple interested acquirers - a number of signs/tell that $LHX is one of the interested parties. Trades below peer and its own historical multiples. The underlying business structure and FCF cadence are misunderstood by the market. $LMT attempted to take it private at $56/share (Dec'20), but was eventually blocked by FTC. Activists own nearly 25% of the company.

Builder of modular and manufactured homes. The current valuation of 5x '23 EBITDA and 7x '23 EPS is pricing in a doomsday demand scenario and is well below historical levels. The company underperformed traditional homebuilders on concerns that the demand in SKY’s lower-end customer demographic will be disproportionately affected by higher interest rates. Investors misunderstand that the trade-down dynamic benefits value-priced manufactured as well as the 'friendly oligopoly' nature of the industry. Margin improvements will be stickier than the market expects and the demand for manufactured homes is less interest rate reflexive than demand for site-built homes.

Health insurer – overlooked by investors. Cheaper (11x PE) than peers. In an industry that benefits from the tailwind of an aging population and is largely immunized from economic cycles. Peers $UNH, $ELV, and $HUM have long captured the imaginations of growth investors and now trade at higher valuations while offering only slightly better EPS growth. Cigna guides to 10%-13% long-term EPS growth and has delivered 15% over the past 11 years. Set to re-rate through its conservative guidance and beat-and-raise model. Compounder that has trounced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the past decade.

The largest owner of $USPS postal properties - roll-up with plenty of runways ahead. All lease payments are inherently backed by credit from the U.S. government - 100% collection rates and 99% renewal rates. Rents have historically risen by 5%. Owns only 5% of USPS properties, with the rest of the market fragmented among 16k legal entities. Can acquire and grow property counts without increasing its G&A base of ~20 employees in corp headquarters. Buys properties in the 6-8% cap range and well below replacement cost. Rents have historically risen by 5%. Attractive even without further M&A - expected IRR of 9-11% with 6.3% AFFO yield + 3-5% organic growth from rent increases. Strategic assets of U.S. infrastructure - last mile delivery properties utilized also by the likes of $AMZN, $UPS, and $FDX.

Multi-family REIT is almost done selling its office properties and owns apartment buildings mostly in NY and Boston. Class A buildings in areas with barriers to supply. At 50% of replacement cost and 1/3 of NAV. Portfolios should benefit substantially from inflation, high mortgage rates, and immigration. Expect the shares to re-rate in the next 12-18 months as a substantial dividend is reinstated. Potential acquisition target.

Dream business trading at 14x 2023 P/E with mid-20s ROE. Online brokerage with a wide moat nearly $7T in customer assets. Consistent and profitable growth since 2009 which shows no signs of moderating. Generates 70% of profits from 10% of customers, allowing it to improve retention by offering best-in-class customer service and products at very little or no cost. Set to benefit from rising interest rate environment. On the cusp of returning a significant amount of cash to equity holders.

Online learning platform offering free and paid courses. SaaS platform business where content is produced and maintained by incentivized "instructors" and consumers/enterprises pay a subscription or one-off fees to access the content. Trades at 2x sales multiple. The company is now focusing on higher margin and growth enterprise customers. Strong margin expansion potential with a lot of room for growth. Historically robust growth/margin expansion/monetization levels. IPO of Oct'21 and has materially sold off with the rest of the market.