VIC Idea Summaries

Below are summaries of ideas posted on Value Investors Club. VIC is great! … but noisy. The summaries below are supposed to help sift through that noise.

Around 2-5 new investment ideas appear on VIC daily. Some are really good and some are posted just to meet membership quotas. Initially, these are for members only, but all move to the public domain after 45 days. That’s when summaries will appear here and on Twitter.

Is the 45 days delay on VIC post-opening for the public a big issue? Not at all – only a very limited number of VIC write-ups actually move the markets right away. Usually, the articles age really well, with critical pushback and additional insights in the comments section.

Market cap and share price is indicated at the time of posting the summary with comparison to price at VIC publication.

September 20, 2022

Winnebago Industries (WGO) short, mcap=$1.9bn, price $59.13 vs $58.64

The RV industry is in the eye of the storm - driven by higher gasoline prices, higher rates, and a weakening consumer. Management's upbeat commentary is misguided. Massive demand pull-forward during Covid. Demand is down significantly vs 2021 and WGO’s dealers went into selling season with the heaviest inventory levels in years. Consensus numbers are way too high and about to be brought down to earth. Used inventory is flooding the market and could create a prolonged overhang. WGO has a high fixed cost base - during GFC gross margins went from +11% to -15%.
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September 20, 2022

Arconic (ARNC), mcap=$2.2bn, price $21.13 vs $29.15

Manufacturer/supplier of rolled aluminum products for industrial uses. Undervalued relative to peers. Favorable growth tailwinds with healthy demand for aluminum rolled products at all ARNC's end markets. Due to execute a few 25-35% IRR projects. The company expects to grow run-rate EBITDA by 40%+ over the next 3 years.
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September 19, 2022

Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO), mcap=$863m, price $1.81 vs $1.34

Clear Channel Outdoor - the second largest out-of-home advertising company globally behind JCDecaux. Constantly trades at a discount to its US pureplay peers $LAMR and $OUT, partially due to high leverage. Catalysts for change - divestment of European business + undergoing industry/company transformation towards digital out-of-home advertising. The long-term growth and profitability profile is vastly underestimated due to a poor understanding of this transformation. Although only 4% of display inventory was converted to digital, digital revenue already represents 35% of the total. 20-40% IRR on each conversion with a very long runway ahead. Highly levered equity stub, but no maturities till 2025 and no covenants.
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September 19, 2022

Gildan Activewear (GIL), mcap=$5.7bn, price $31.19 vs $28.76

Dominant supplier of blank t-shirts which are sold to wholesale distributors. Unwarranted stock price decline over the last 6 months as GILs EBITDA & EPS forecasts are up meaningfully during this period. Trades at almost all-time low 8x fwd PE. Inventory levels at the distributor level are still below pre-covid levels, and it’ll take until 2023 to get fully restocked. Over 80% market share. Unassailable cost advantage via manufacturing scale and vertical integration. Margins have been structurally improved from 15% to 20%. A streamlined cost base will help drive accelerated top-line growth. Defensive long-term compounder run by great management.
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September 19, 2022

Global Atomic (GLO.TO), mcap=C$660m, price C$3.71 vs C$2.25

A bullish bet on the Uranium industry with multi-bagger upside from GLO's uranium mine in Niger. Detailed thesis of why the uranium market will be in sustained deficit over the next decade and why uranium prices are expected to reach $100/lb. GLO mine will begin production in 2024 and has >250m of U3O8 and a 50-year mine life. Limited geopolitical risks as Niger is a top-tier jurisdiction for uranium producers. Management owns 15% of the company.
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September 19, 2022

Ether Capital (ETHC.NE), mcap=C$73m, price C$2.03 vs C$2.1

A company that owns and stakes $ETH at a 20% discount to the value of ETH holdings. Better investment than owning ETH directly with all the benefits. Upside from upcoming #EthereumMerge and the start of staking. Expected to start trading at a premium to its ETH holdings on the balance sheet. Material upcoming income from ETH staking rewards. Minimal cash burn with operating expenses covered by consulting income.
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September 19, 2022

Micron Technology (MU), mcap=$58bn, price $52.85 vs $61.29

Manufacturer of digital memory and storage solutions at 7.5x PE. Expected to continue transitioning from the lower margin, “commodity” memory and storage chips into the “complex,” high-end, higher-margin chips used in Data Centers, Automotive, and Industrial markets. The target market is expected to double in size by the end of the decade. Recent technological strides were masked by industrywide headwinds. Mid to high teens ROIC. The robust balance sheet recently shifted from net debt to material net cash.
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September 7, 2022

Pyxis Oncology (PYXS), mcap=$89m, price $2.70 vs $2.76

Pre-clinical biotech at a 50% discount to its cash balance. Baby thrown out with the bathwater in biotech sell-off - down 80% since its $16/shr IPO at the end of 2021. Priced as if R&D will only destroy value - all programs are very early stage, so that is an overly exaggerated assumption. Very experienced management - led by former $PFE exec.
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September 7, 2022

Energy Transfer (ET), mcap=$35.6bn, price $11.54 vs $10.31

MLP, the largest owner of energy transportation assets in the country. The market is wrong in valuing ET as if its cash flows are going to be in rapid decline - in fact, the company is positioned to meaningfully grow its already high (25%) cash flow yield. Expected to re-rate on the back of stabilizing CAPEX and market starting to appreciate cashflow inherent in the company. Stable revenue stream with built-in inflators tied to PPI. The global demand for hydrocarbons continues to grow and is expected to do so for at least the next 10 years. The US has some of the best combinations of infrastructure, and quality rock, and is not a war-torn country, political basket case, or nationalization risk. And ET with its unparalleled breadth and scale is exposed to all these positive trends with its comprehensive network of infrastructure.
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September 7, 2022

IntegraFin Holdings (IHP.L), mcap=£905m, price £2.73 vs £2.55

Financial advisor custody platform in the UK. High-quality and capital-light business. Trades at 17x NTM, which is the lowest historically. Industry tailwinds. Revenues are a take rate of AUM, currently around 25bps. Secular share winner - low teens today and expected to continue gaining. Stands out from the competition with a fully owned and modernized tech stack. Down 50% YTD due to transitory issues.
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September 7, 2022

Vistra (VST), mcap=$10.5bn, price $24.34 vs $21.70

Electricity producer and power distributor, mainly in Texas. Trades under 5x normalized FCF. Due to high current energy prices, the company is locking in windfall profits through 2025. Aggressively returning capital to shareholders, with the current buyback program equal to 20% of mcap (more than half already implemented). Expects to return $7.5bn over 5 years. Insiders recently made open market purchases.
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September 7, 2022

JD.com (JD), mcap=$92bn, price $59.35 vs $63.00

China's largest online retailer with $500bn in GMV. In a way China's $AMZN. 30% market share in B2C retail eCommerce. Healthy and cash-generative business, but with very thin margins. True cash earnings power is not accurately reflected due to continued investment in the business flywheel (scale, more affordable drives, faster deliveries, wider product selection). Sold off due to concerns about China's government's treatment of leading enterprises.
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September 4, 2022

Heritage-Crystal Clean (HCCI), mcap=$836m, price $34.57 vs $28.84

Processes hazardous and non-hazardous waste (60%, non-cyclical) and re-refines of used oil (40% cyclical). Far cheaper than its larger peer $CLH. Although the oil business is cyclical and currently over-earning, it has shown a 15-year CAGR of 33%. Due to continued high energy prices, elevated earnings might persist for longer than investors expect. The appeal of the non-cyclical environmental services business more than off-sets the risks of cyclicality in the oil refining business. Potential acquisition target by a larger solid waste company.
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September 3, 2022

Boyd Gaming (BYD), mcap=$6bn, price $54.86 vs $50.00

The operator of 30 casino properties in Nevada and 9 in other states. "Baby with bathwater" case - BYD undeservedly sold-off with other gaming stocks. Structurally improved EBITDA margins after '20-'21 cost-cutting efforts. Minimal exposure to deflating bubble of sports betting. Historically low balance sheet leverage. Untapped value from real-estate worth more than the current EV.
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September 3, 2022

ChannelAdvisor (ECOM), mcap=$461m, price $15.13 vs $14.75

Provider of SaaS software to manage flow across multiple e-commerce channels. Washed up in the tech drawdown. Emerging from multi-year business transformation. - with the big shift from eBay merchants to large enterprises. Subscription-type contracts depend on merchants' GMV. Possible recession and slow-down in e-commerce already priced in, with risk/reward skewed to the upside.
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September 2, 2022

IO Biotech (IOBT), mcap=$114m, price $3.88 vs $4.20

Biopharma developing drug for metastatic melanoma at 35% discount to net cash. Sold-off 70% together with biopharma index $XBI, despite very positive company-specific news. Early study data published in Nature are outstanding and significantly exceed the current standard of care in terms of efficacy and durability. Phase 3 trial began recently. Current burn rate at $20 with $188m of cash on the balance - providing run-away into 2024.
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September 2, 2022

Airbnb (ABNB), mcap=$76bn, price $119 vs $95

Airbnb - good long-term investment opportunity at 20x normalized earnings. Although loss-making currently, it's a capital-light business with increasing margins and continued growth. Set t turn into compounder when normalized profitability is reached. Expected operating margins of 28% (vs -20% currently) and a net margin of 20% to be reached within 5 years.
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September 1, 2022

Costamare (CMRE), mcap=$1.4bn, price $11.23 vs $10.87

Container ship lessor. Covid beneficiary was able to lock its charter agreements at very high rates for 90% of the fleet. Set to earn $500m+ a year for 2023-2025 from these agreements or more than the current market cap. Undervalued even assuming depressed earnings/rates after 2025. Better governance than the average shipping company with insiders owning 57% and buying in the open market and participating in DRIP. Management fees have not been raised since 2017 despite inflation and overheads only amount to 4.3% of revenues.
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August 31, 2022

ACI Worldwide (ACIW), mcap=$3.3bn, price $27.19 vs $26.80

The payments software provider for large banks, intermediaries like $V and $MA, and large merchants. Undemanding valuation at 11x '22 FCF. Incredibly sticky product with high switching costs. 5-year licenses with renewals typically above inflation rates. Strong growth potential from ancillary and adjacent products. The main one is software for real-time payments (RTP). With increased RTP adoption globally, $ACI could see explosive FCF growth in the coming years.
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August 30, 2022

Regal Rexnord (RRX), mcap=$9.2bn, price $137 vs $114

Synergy targets from the recent merger are conservative and this merger will prove to be an incredible transaction. Cheap at 11.5x EPS of recently increased FY22 guidance with unlevered balance sheet - that's prior to the full realization of guided merger synergies. Strong position with mission-critical products that represent only a small cost portion for customers.
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August 30, 2022

Allied Motion Technologies (AMOT), mcap=$504m, price $32.50 vs $24.30

Producer of motion control systems. Recently made a few acquisitions that add 15% to base revenues. Trades below the valuation of closest peer. Potential target for a larger competitor. Mission-critical products that represent only a small cost portion for customers.
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August 30, 2022

Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN), mcap=$3.7bn, price $37.51 vs $37.57

A bet that the transition to electric trucks takes longer than what is priced in the stock. Electric battery density is way too low for a viable use in the trucking industry. Dominant US supplier of transmissions for medium-duty trucks. Trades at 7.2x 2022 PE/FCF and 6x mid-cycle earnings. 30%+ EBITDA margins and very high ROC. Dominant market share and margins are expected to persist as long as ICE trucks are not replaced by electric vehicles. 5-year buyback spend averages 14% of the current market cap.
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August 30, 2022

Cavco Industries (CVCO), mcap=$2.3bn, price $255 vs $222

Producer of manufactured/modular homes, park model RVs and etc at 8xEBIT. The wide-moat company is set to benefit from the affordability crisis and deregulation trends. A pristine balance sheet with a long history of profitability. +47% '22 revenue growth, with +17% growth consensus for '23. 34-week backlog with community REITs buying every home the company can produce. #3 player with 17% market share, behind Clayton Homes (owned by $BRK) with 50% share.
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August 29, 2022

WM Technology (MAPS), mcap=$635m, price $3.63 vs $3.15

The operator of online listings/marketplace platform for cannabis products globally. A safer bet than MSOs on the continued growth of the legal cannabis market. Sold-off 90% with other de-SPACs. 15m MAUs with half of the legal dispensaries already listing/advertising on the platform. Strong network effects with 2x faster growth and 5x higher ARPU compared to comp $LFLY, despite already having a 5x larger revenue base.
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August 29, 2022

Square Enix Holdings Co. (9684.T), mcap=jpy 770bn, price jpy 6390 vs jpy 6260

Japanese video game developer with a rich portfolio of IP-able games. Multiple ways to win with the Final Fantasy franchise alone are worth almost 2x current EV. It's a high-quality franchise with subscription-based revenues and leading gamer engagement/monetization stats globally. The underperformance in the HD games segment is temporary. At 1.6 revenues market implies it is a structurally low-margin video game company, which is not the case at all.
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August 28, 2022

Saga Communications (SGA), mcap=$149m, price $24.65 vs $23.00

Well-managed radio broadcaster with 79 FM and 35 AM stations. Owned land/buildings/towers with gross book value equivalent to current EV. 40% market cap in cash, with nearly all competitors having highly leveraged balance sheets. Unlevered FCF yield of 15%. Remained profitable through the pandemic. Additional cost-cutting measures taken are expected to lead to improved profitability going forward.
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August 28, 2022

Step Co. (9795.T), mcap=JPY 28.8bn, price JPY 1738 vs JPY 1706

Japanese education test prep company with 30k students and 154 locations in Kanagawa prefecture. Cash + real estate equal to current EV. Investors get operating business for free. 27 years of revenue/profit growth. Strong focus on quality - above average teacher salaries/benefits, well-chosen location within a single core area. Multiple grow avenues. At 10x PE and 5.4x, EV/EBIT is cheap historically and vs peers. Founder/management/employees own almost 50% of the stock. Since 1995 returned 100% of cumulative FCF in dividends and repurchases.
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August 28, 2022

Citigroup (C), mcap=$99bn, price $51.26 vs $43.55

Citi neither has a ton of knockout risk nor is materially over-earning on 2022 estimates. Is far too cheap on trailing and forward earnings (4.7x - 6.4x) and tangible BV (0.55x). Fed severally adverse scenario is fully manageable by equity cushion (23% downside) and seems overly punitive - scenario projects $80bn of losses or equivalent to 4 years of GFC losses. The bank is in much better shape than pre-GFC.
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August 27, 2022

Radian Group (RDN), mcap=$3.9bn, price $22.31 vs $20.50

Mortgage insurer at 86% of TBV with pending large capital releases that will significantly increase TBV/share. The company is scheduled to start releasing contingency reserves that it had to hold for 10 years. Starting in 2024 $400m+ will be released annually and could be used for dividends buybacks without any further approval from regulators. Scheduled releases over 10 years equate to 115% of $RDN's market cap. On top of that, the company is set to generate $600m/year from operations (17% yield).
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August 27, 2022

Ferguson (FERG), mcap=$26.6bn, price $126 vs $109

Retailer of plumbing, HVAC, and building supplies. Cheap on current (10x) and normalized (13.5x) earnings. Covid-driven housing boom beneficiary. Low valuation due to fears about residential end markets - but the company is cheap even assuming margin compression. Set to be added to S&P 500 with the expected increase in index ownership. 40% of businesses are tied to new construction and 60% are tied to RMI. Long-term growth profile at high returns on capital.
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August 27, 2022

BuzzFeed (BZFD), mcap=$247m, price $1.87 vs $1.60

Buzzfeed - is a digital media company focused on Gn Z and Millennials. Recent SPAC lost 80%+ of its value, mainly due to unrealistic expectations set at the time of de-SPAC and management has lost its credibility. 2022 is likely to be an absolute through for BuzzFeed. '23-'24 cyclical recovery is expected to come at high incremental margins. Strong enough balance sheet to withstand the current storm. Asymmetric bet due to limit further downside.
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August 27, 2022

T-Mobile US (TMUS), mcap=$180bn, price $144 vs $134

Dominant wireless growth position with the best network and best value in 5G. Two years ahead of $VZ and $T in deployment. From '24 onwards set to generate $15-20/share in FCF taking into account synergies from the Sprint merger. A massive $60bn+ capital return program (70% of free float) will materially shrink the share count.
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August 27, 2022

Pershing Square Tontine (PSTH) De-SPAC play

Mispriced right to invest alongside Bill Ackman on similar terms as him. Complex PSTH SPAC is set to liquidate and distribute a trust value of $20.05/share + half of SPAR. Each full SPAR will give the right to invest in Ackman's new venture whatever that might be. Historically investors have attached high value for the possibility to invest alongside Ackman. Currently, investors are paying only $0.03 for what could be worth $1/share. Risk of SEC not allowing such vehicle to proceed or SPARs remaining unlisted.
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August 25, 2022

Virgin Money UK (VMUK.L), mcap=£2.2bn, price £1.53 vs £1.34

UK bank at 43% TBV and 4x earnings despite double-digit ROE outlook, excess capital, and aggressive share repurchases. Investors are overly pessimistic about macro concerns and ignore the specifics of the company. Previously Clydedal Bank acquired Virgin Money in 2018. Management with an already proven track record of exceeding targets and over-delivering on cost savings. Timely opportunity as expenses are set to decline in the coming two years from the higher levels of initial investments into new digital strategy. The newly announced repurchase program might be the inflection point in capital return, with the potential for further buybacks.
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August 25, 2022

Advance Auto Parts (AAP), mcap=$11.6bn, price $192 vs $182

Leading N.A. automotive parts retailer through B&M stores and e-comm sites. In the middle-innings of the 5-year integration/turnaround process of its multiple brands to have unified supply and logistics chains, common IT infrastructure and etc. Trades at 13xEPS - beblow peers and below historical levels. Expected to re-rate as fruits of the turnaround become evident. 77% of sales to DIY segment, higher than peers. Recession-resistant industry.
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August 25, 2022

Molson Coors Beverage (TAP), mcap=$11.3bn, price $52.91 vs $56.00

Fallen out of favor brewing/beverage company at 12-13x historical earnings. Owner of Coors and Miller brands. Undergoing premiumization of its beverage portfolio is expected to lift operating margins in the coming years. Continues to gain share in higher margin Selzer and other high-end beverage segments - stock upside comes specifically from the continued growth in these categories.
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August 25, 2022

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT), mcap=$584m, price $15.73 vs $16.20

Closed-end fund at 40% discount to NAV and converting into REIT in the coming months. REITs tend to trade at much narrower discounts. SEC approval, the last remaining step in conversion, was granted at the end of June. Index inclusion and buying by passive funds are expected to close the NAV discount gap. Well-aligned insider interests with 15% ownership and active buying. 50% of the portfolio is residential and self-storage rentals, with the rest being a mix of office, hotel, timber, and life sciences RE. Properties on the balance sheet are already marked at conservative valuations, making NAV discounts unwarranted.
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August 25, 2022

Ardent Leisure Group (ALG.AX), mcap=$252m, price $0.53 vs $0.54

The operator of Australia-based theme park operator at 2x historical EBITDA. Recently sold its non-theme park business and distributed part of the proceeds to shareholders. Has $A190m of cash on the balance sheet vs A$260m market cap. Historically theme park operations generated A$30-$35m of EBITDA. The business was hit by a fatal accident and then covid, causing significant growth in attendance and refurbishment investments. Traffic already starting to recover to pre-accident / pre-covid levels and earnings are expected the follow. Rumored interest from 'global PE fund' in the ALG theme park business. Ownership of unutilized land provides further upside.
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August 25, 2022

Continental Resources (CLR), mcap=$23.6bn, price $65.09 vs $65.00

Controlling shareholders offered to take CLR private at $70/shr. Owns 83% or 90.5% with related parties. Special Committee currently evaluating the proposal. Negotiated price likely to be in $75-80/shr range, supported by company's valuation. 9% upside to the current offer and 15% to potentially improved one.
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August 24, 2022

MiX Telematics (MIXT), mcap=$117m, price $8.02 vs $9.00

Subscription-based telematics solution providers in South Africa account for >50% of revenue. High ROIC and strong moat with 3-year contracts and high customer switching costs. Trades at near through multiple of near through earnings. Rerun of 2016-2019 high growth period expected as O&G subscribers in Americas start reactivating MIXT services - Americas EBITDA is currently down to $1m from $10m pre-covid. In-vehicle CAPEX is a leading growth indicator and has increased to a record $18m vs $13.6m pre-covid.
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August 22, 2022

Worthington Industries (WOR), mcap=$2.5bn, price $50.90 vs $43.00

High-quality business, currently experiencing the best run of profitability, but trading at all-time low multiples to earnings and balance sheet. Industrial manufacturer of value-added metal products. Unjustifiably sold-off in line with steel mills although steel processing is only 40% of earnings. Sits at 10x average earnings over the last 10 years (and under 6x TTM PE, but was over-earning), with a historical multiple of 16x. 35% owned and operated by the chairman with a great track record of capital allocation.
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August 22, 2022

Laredo Petroleum (LPI), mcap=$1.15bn, price $66.46 vs $67.50

The investment provides high beta exposure to high for longer oil prices. Heavily levered E&P that is relatively unhedged for 2023. At $90 WTI guidance of $900m of FCF over the next 2 years (40% yield). Expected to deleverage the balance sheet, begin returning cash to shareholders, and maintain current production levels. After these steps likely to re-rate from 2x to 3.5x '23 EBITDA in line with peer $MGY.
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August 22, 2022

Nu Holdings (NU), mcap=$21.5bn, price $4.67 vs $4.01

Fast growing, US-listed LatAm digital bank with 60m accounts, mainly in Brazil. Strong cost advantage relative to incumbents. While NU's penetration in terms of accounts is 33% of Brazil's adult population, other products (credit cards, loans, etc.) remain underpenetrated providing strong growth potential. Revenue per active account is projected to increase from $80 to $150 by 2025 (in line with incumbent banks). Trades at 7.2x projected 2025 earnings. The bear case rests on deteriorating credit and asset quality in Brazil.
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August 22, 2022

Textainer Group Holdings (TGH), mcap=$1.5bn, price $31.87 vs $26.83

The second largest container leasing company. 50% of portfolio container leases signed over the last two years - which was the biggest boom in shipping and container markets. It is likely these leases were signed on very favorable terms for TGH at high rates and for longer periods. Trades at a material discount to book, when book value or premium to it is deserved. Well positioned to repurchase 15% of stock a year. Set to earn $8-$10/share in three years.
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August 19, 2022

Zurn Elkay Water Solutions (ZWS), mcap=$5bn, price $28.89 vs $27.01

Producer of plumbing products for commercial and institutional applications. RemainCo from $RRX spin-off. The recent acquisition increased revenue by 70% with material synergies. Well-positioned in an attractive industry, set to gain market share organically and through M&A. The commercial construction industry is still below pre-pandemic levels.
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August 19, 2022

Just Eat Takeaway.com (JTKWY), mcap=$4.1bn, price $3.82 vs $2.81

Combination of Takeaway, Just Eat, and Gubhub businesses. Just Eat and Grubhub were by themselves acquisition targets with bids at 2x today's JET's market cap. VC-funded bubble allowed competitors to launch subsidized 1P food logistics operations. A 2-sided marketplace is a much better business model than a 3-sided marketplace. Operating cash flow gives JET a long-term competitive advantage to fend off 1P competitors where needed.
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August 19, 2022

HEICO (HEI), mcap=$18.8bn, price $156 vs $133

25% arb spread between Heico common and class A shares. Expected to narrow to c. 10% spread. Equal dividends, the same treatment in case of sale similar liquidity. The only difference is voting rights. Historically spread used to widen in periods of high market stress and then reverted to the mean. Class A shares are also used as acquisition currency, making the spread subject to the temporary selling pressures of the former owners of acquirees.
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August 16, 2022

McCoy Global (MCB.TO), mcap=C$34m, price C$1.19 vs C$1.00

Bet on continued strength in energy markets. Supplier of hydraulic tongs used to secure pipe when drilling O&G wells. Will benefit from an uptick in drilling activity - rig count still down 25% vs pre-covid levels. At 3xEBITDA if activity reverts to '18-'19 levels. Expected to outperform vs previous cycles due to restructuring during covid. Capital light due to outsourced manufacturing. Downside well protected by TBV and WC.
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August 16, 2022

Avante Logixx (XX.V), mcap=C$22m, price C$0.84 vs C$0.75

Residential security business in high-end neighborhoods in Toronto. 20% penetration, low churn, and high recurring revenues. Recession-resistant business given the client base. Orphaned stock after key shareholder $FFH.TO (20%) and the founder (13%) blocked the sale of the company at C$1.6/share in Mar'22. One segment recently sold. Corporate overheads (to be reduced) overshadow the profitability of the remaining business. Half of the market cap is in net cash. More focused leadership after the founder returned as CEO. Already significantly cut operating expenses after head-office closure - $1.6m in annual savings still to be seen in financials.
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August 16, 2022

Verde Agritech (NPK.TO), mcap=C$467m, price C$8.99 vs C$6.93

Brazilian producer of potash listed in Canada. Expanding rapidly - from 100K tons in 2020 to 1M toms in 2022 -due to product superiority. Profitable, low CAPEX needs. Trades at 8x 2022 PE using a 50% discount on current potash prices. Production capacity 35% higher than 2022 guidance. Managed by an intelligent fanatic. Jurisdiction and peak potash pricing risks.
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